Opportunities to Improve Marine Forecasting (1989) / Chapter Skim
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3. Findings and Recommendations
3. Findings and Recommendations
Pages 29-43
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From page 29... ...
are primarily concerned with the maintenance and incremental improvement of existing products and services. The remaining three (operational oceanographic satellite, forecast internal ocean weather, and episodic waves/explosive cyclogenesis)
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Data Assimilation and Modeling Data are processed and numerical models are run by both the National Weather Service and National Ocean Service components of NOAA and by the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center of the U.S.
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Among the specific issues of concern to the committee are · designation of a national policy and a lead agency for an operational oceanographic satellite system; · designation of a national policy and a lead agency for nowcasting and forecasting internal ocean weather; maintenance and improvement of the services provided to the civil sector; and · maintenance of the free exchange of data and information. These issues are discussed in detail in the following findings and recommendations.
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The following comments extracted from the reports of the working groups shed additional light on this situation. Forecasting by the National Weather Service and user response to such forecasts have been successful in minimizing loss of life due to hurricane occurrence in U.S.
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Operational Oceanographic Satellite The nation now has no plans to field a suite of sensors tailored to measure, in an operational mode, the ocean variables deemed most critical to ocean forecasting. These sensors would include the altimeter for measuring ocean topography from which currents can be determined, the scatterometer with a primary role of measuring the wind speed and direction over the ocean and thus allowing for better estimation of wave parameters, the scanning microwave sensor to measure sea surface temperature and the presence or absence of ice and for providing another estimate of wind and waves, and the low-frequency microwave radiometer to provide a cloud-independent look at sea-surface temperature.
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Lost Data Opportunities While an operational oceanographic satellite is necessary for improved ocean forecasting, ship reports are equally necessary because only they provide data on subsurface ocean conditions. There Is a surprising inefficiency in the collection of oceanic and atmospheric data from various marine platforms.
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Shipping A major concern for vessel operators is the nature of extratropical storms over the high seas. Often, forecasts are for vast ocean regions, especially when large air masses dominate a region such as the Eastern North Atlantic.
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For such highly specific operations as the evacuation by boat or helicopter of offshore oil fields that lie in the path of a severe storm, or the tow and placement of platform structures, highly site- and time-specific weather forecasts can significantly reduce the risks to both men and materials and ultimately translate into large cost benefits if done on time and without damage. A reasonably significant body of private forecasters and private forecasting service companies are key assistants to the major energy extraction companies in support of such decision making.
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FINDING 5: IMPROVED DISSEMINATION SYSTEMS AND LINKAGE TO NAVY MARINE FACSIMILE BROADCAST ARE NEEDED The dissemination of marine weather information and the potential loss of the Navy marine facsimile broadcast was a common point of discussion by almost all vessel operators. As technology and federal budgets rapidly change, there is a strong feeling among several user communities notably fisheries and marine transportation- that federal agencies will be setting policy and adopting new communications systems with little interaction with the users.
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will be delivered over the INMARSAT system. Coastal weather information (to a nominal distance of 60 miles offshore)
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NOAA should develop a national strategy for marine forecast product dissemination to users. Specifically, it should · define the role of NOAA Weather Radio for supporting the marine community and configure the system consistent with that role; · structure a national plan for implementing NAVIEX so that it is responsive to the need for expanded marine forecasting service; · provide for a full-period national marine facsimile service equivalent to the existing U.S.
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Although the need for nowcasting and forecasting of internal ocean weather was not as strongly supported by the working groups as the more obviously observable phenomena such as storms and rogue waves, it was a consensus of the committee that future improvements to ocean forecasting are critically dependent on the development of this capability. Commercial development, marine operations, and recreational use require expanded nowcasting and forecasting capability for mesoscale oceanic phenomena and related boundary processes of the U.S.
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Improved nowcasts and forecasts of internal ocean weather and related boundary processes are well within the national means. The technology (observation, processing, and communications systems)
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The consensus of the committee was that there is a body of anecdotal evidence to suggest the occurrence of waves dramatically larger than those anticipated on the basis of prevailing sea conditions. There does not appear to be technical consensus as to whether episodic waves reflect a particular physical phenomena or are instead merely a manifestation of the statistical variability within a given sea state.
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From page 43... ...
. The user community, primarily high-seas vessel operators, would like better forecasts of these events and especially warnings, by area, when conditions exist that favor such explosive storm formation, or when a specific storm has the potential for such explosive deepening in pressure gradient that can cause onset of high winds and increasing sea state.
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