Opportunities to Improve Marine Forecasting (1989) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix F - Working Group 2: Tropical and Extratropical Storms
Appendix F - Working Group 2: Tropical and Extratropical Storms
Pages 74-95
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From page 74... ...
FREDERICK H SHARROCKS JR., Federal Emergency Management Agency This report examines forecasting issues related to tropical and extratropical storms.
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From page 75... ...
14. For the foreseeable future offshore petroleum industry exposure to extratropical storms is basically limited to Gulf of Mexico winter storms.
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4. As technology for satellite remote sensing of marine weather is developed, that technology should be rapidly mobilized to provide operational capability and make ocean weather data available to NWS forecasters and other marine users.
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Over the years the NWS has developed computer simulations of hurricane processes and special hurricane data gathering methodologies. In performing the computer simulations for forecast purposes the National Hurricane Center utilizes weather data from the normal worldwide weather data network In addition, special attention is devoted to interpretation of satellite sensing and imagery data, and special reconnaissance aircraft are employed to gain direct atmospheric measurements within the hurricane itself.
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From page 78... ...
The consensus attitude of the fishing fleets is that the Hurricane Center provides appropriate and satisfactory forecasts and the history of the fishing fleets has been one of success in avoiding loss of life. Recent success comes in the face of some opposing influences.
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Industry evacuation can involve a fleet of several hundred helicopters, supplemented by workboats and crewboats, to move the offshore work force of several thousands onto shore in time for evacuation in an orderly way along with a substantial complement of shoreside support personnel A common yardstick has this process under way 72 hours ahead of the hurricane. The offshore industry has become increasingly confident in the National Hurricane Center guidance and has gradually become somewhat more selective in the operating areas to be shut down and evacuated.
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From page 80... ...
In addition, some petroleum operating companies employ intensive value-added forecasting efforts in order to support evacuation decision making and the optimization of evacuation timing. During the opening day of the workshop, David Peters, staff meteorologist with Conoco, described the program of his organization to provide specifically focused and continuously updated forecast advice to operations decision makers.
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From page 81... ...
The contributions that value-added services can make to safety assurance and reduction of economic loss critically depend on the hurricane meteorology data disseminated by the NWS. Specipcalk it is considered essential that the NWS continue with its present practice of gathering, processing, and rapidly transmitting basic data from data buoys, observing ships, satellite imagery, and reconnaissance aircraft flights through the nurncane.
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From page 82... ...
On the case studies performed with the SLOSH program, in collaboration with FEMA, the tide response has been simulated for representative hurricane conditions. Results permit local authorities to include realistic flooding scenarios in evacuation planning and to interpret Hurricane Center forecasts so as to include anticipated local storm tide in evacuation decision making.
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From page 83... ...
EXTRATROPICAL STORMS Marine forecasting of extratropical storms impacts mainly on the shipping industry and the fishing fleets. There is some influence also on offshore petroleum operations.
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The shipping community, however, considers the present forecast services as satisfactory and is hard pressed to identify quantifiable benefits of better forecasts or ways in which shipping operation would be changed in any fundamental way. While expressing satisfaction with forecasts in the North Atlantic and North Pacific areas assigned to the NWS and cooperating agencies for support of international shipping, shippers note some difficulties with forecasts in other regions.
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fib provide extra support to ship captains, some shipping companies employ private, value-added, forecasting services. For the most part these value-added consultants supplement the basic NWS maps and forecasts.
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· Mariners place very high value on real-time nearby observations of storm conditions. Open-ocean weather observations of storm conditions often critically depend on Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS)
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Storm observations should carry a special designation to distinguish them from more routine obsenations. The NWS communication system and procedure must be modified to respond more quickly to process storm observations in order to · permit NWS forecasters and value-added forecasters to follow storm conditions closely and issue warnings of changes; and · quickly transmit storm observations data back to the shipping fleet for timely on-board decision making.
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From page 88... ...
1b achieve an effective VOS program, NOAA and the other agencies concerned with ocean weather should take initiatives to establish a dedicated function aimed at coordinating and nurturing the VOS program. Improvements of electiveness of the VOS program is the first priority in · · ~ trnprovzng forecasting and response to ocean storms.
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From page 89... ...
There does not for example appear to be technical consensus as to whether episodic waves reflect a particular physical phenomenon or are instead merely a manifestation of the statistical variability within a given sea state. Irrespective of the technical debates, mariners view the occurrence
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Fishing vessels are even more vulnerable than deep-sea ships to the exceptional waves that form in this area. In general, inshore and offshore fishing fleets have different concerns.
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From page 91... ...
There can be little doubt that major improvements in forecasts would increase productive fishing time and reduce risks for the fishing fleets. The fishing fleets, in spite of difficulties and weather hazards, view the NWS in a very positive way and describe forecast services as satisfactory.
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From page 92... ...
And it is not likely that public policy will change that mandate in the foreseeable future. While there is some contact betweeen fishermen and NWS, it is the assessment of the working group that a more concerted effort of contact and discourse beween NWS personnel and fishing fleets is needed.
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From page 93... ...
Lack of success in exploratory drilling has been the governing issue, not just the fall in oil prices. The result is that industry concern with extratropical storms has almost exclusively narrowed to the Gulf of Mexico winter storms.
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Operators of offshore platforms should do more to provide ocean weather observations, and there is a specific cooperative project under way to improve this response of the offshore industry. It should be noted, however, that there is another side to the story.
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1b this extent dredges are like the inshore fishing fleet in need of meaningful improvement in the resolution of local forecasts. ~ For severe storms, safety and protection of the equipment calls for the dredge to be towed from the worksite to a sheltered anchorage.
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