Global Change and Our Common Future Papers from a Forum (1989) / Chapter Skim
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7. Mathematical Modeling of Greenhouse Warming: How Much Do We Know?
7. Mathematical Modeling of Greenhouse Warming: How Much Do We Know?
Pages 62-72
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From page 62... ...
These other greenhouse gases are well known to contribute to very significant expected changes in the atmospheric ozone structure and amount. Their potential to add to the CO2 climate warming effect is not as universally appreciated.
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From page 63... ...
G) ~ z 63 ADVECTION THE - ODYNAMICAL ~ ~ EQUATION EQUATION ~ OF MOTION _ ~ DENSITY WNN, ~ < rn o RADU RATION | MOISTURE EQUATION TRANSFER 1 - - - OF WATER VAPOR ~ l ~ q~0~ , ~ ~ ~ , , HEAT BALANCE HYDROLOGY OF THE EARTH'S SURFACE FIGURE 7.1 Simplified schematic diagram illustrating some of the interactive atmospheric processes governing earth's climate system.
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From page 64... ...
I list below, in decreasing order of my current scientific confidence, some important model-predicted climate changes due to increased greenhouse gases. (This list is similar to that in National Research Council, 1987.)
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From page 65... ...
'tCO2 Only" includes only effects of changing CO2; "All Trace Gases" includes effects of changing CO2 as well as all the other increasing greenhouse gases. (Reprinted from Ramanathan et al., 1987.)
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From page 66... ...
for a doubled CO2 world compared to today's climate for 3 different models. Top, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (NOAA)
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From page 67... ...
W~ 1~ :~, : :.:.-.;.:.: ; ; ~ : , :.: ~2 .. , ' ~ 30W 0 30E 60 90 120 150 180 150 120 90 60 30W 0 3 E FIGURE 7.5 Latitude-longitude cross sections of December-January-February mean surface temperature change (°C)
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From page 68... ...
Bryan, ''On the Climate Change Induced by a Gradual Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide,' submitted to Nature)
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From page 69... ...
However, tropical storms also are governed by other factors such as local wind structure. At the present time, this effect has not been satisfactorily addressed in the coarse-resolution climate models due to the relatively small size of tropical disturbances.
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From page 70... ...
On these shorter time scales, such natural fluctuations would artificially reduce or enhance the apparent greenhouse warming signals (Figure 7.8~. Until such decadal-scale fluctuations are understood or are predictable, it will remain difficult to diagnose the specific signals of permanent climate change as they evolve over the next quarter-century.
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From page 71... ...
Syukuro Manabe and his group at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA for their contributions to the perspectives offered here as well as for their unrelenting commitment to solving the greenhouse gas modeling problem. I am also indebted for the contributions and cooperative efforts from the other climate modeling groups at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Goddard Institute for Space Studies/NASA, Oregon State University, and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office.
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From page 72... ...
Model Projections of the Equilibrium Climatic Responses to Increased Carbon Dioxide Projecting the Climatic Effects of Increasing Carbon Dioxide.
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