Fuels to Drive Our Future (1990) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Pages 1-9
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Included in the report are an economic analysis of the various technologies, an assessment of their state of development, and suggested strategic directions for a 5-year R&D program for producing liquid transportation fuels from plentiful domestic resources (see Chapter 6 for a more detailed summary of the report)
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public and private development of domestic resources of oil and other fossil fuels as replacements for imported petroleum. These efforts were sharply curtailed in the 1980s as a result of falling international oil prices.
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plants. Domestic heavy oil conversion, solvent extraction of tar sands, direct liquefaction of coal, and compressed natural gas appeared to be the most economically attractive, with estimated costs below $40/barrel (1988 dollars, 10 percent real discount rate; all subsequent costs in this section are in the same terms)
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Information available to the committee on the U.S. biomass resource base and the costs of conversion to liquid fuels suggests that biomassderived fuels will cost more than those from fossil fuels.
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Even if petroleum prices reach levels that make conversion of nonpetroleum resources competitive with crude oil, private investment may be slow to occur because of the risks associated with new technology, concerns of price volatility, and the residual effects of the twin oil price collapses of 1986 and 1988. In the face of these energy, technical, and environmental uncertainties, a diverse and substantial federal R&D program could provide multiple options and insurance for future domestic production.
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Under Scenario I the pace of the program could be slowed in comparison with Scenario II, whereas the more rapid price increase under Scenario III would call for a more rapid pace. Increased emphasis on curtailing greenhouse gas emissions would result in more emphasis on nonfossil sources of process heat and hydrogen, whereas increasing environmental constraints would lead to greater emphasis on environmentally related activities.
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Because manufacture of transportation fuels from both of these resources produces more carbon dioxide than processes based on oil, natural gas, or some biomass processes, a special effort should be made to identify possible opportunities, such as using nonfossil sources of energy (e.g., nuclear or solar based) for process heat or hydrogen production, for reduction in emissions of related greenhouse gases from the conversion of coal and oil shale into liquid transportation fuels.
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The current DOE program is aimed at production of pyrolysis liquids and metallurgical coke and does not have a high priority for liquid transportation fuels. Coal pyrolysis combined with production of synthesis gas has the potential for increasing liquid yields in conversion processes for liquid transportation fuels.
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From page 9... ...
Although widespread, most eastern oil shale is low grade, occurs in thin seams, has a high stripping ratio for mining, and is inherently more expensive than western shale. The committee judges that the economic use of this resource will occur much later than coal or western oil shale.
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