Fuels to Drive Our Future (1990) / Chapter Skim
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6. Major Conclusions and Recommendations for R&D on Liquid Transportation Fuels
6. Major Conclusions and Recommendations for R&D on Liquid Transportation Fuels
Pages 115-130
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From page 115... ...
The level of oil prices of recent years, combined with the expectation of continued price volatility, has substantially decreased private investment in exploration, development, and research on domestic resources. In time, however, imported oil prices may increase to the point where a large portion of U.S.
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From page 116... ...
Several issues must be considered in establishing the nature and size of a DOE R&D program for producing such fuels: · expected timing of commercial application; potential size of the application; potential for cost reduction, improvements in reliability; and diminished environmental impacts; and the need for DOE participation. R&D Issues Timing of Commercial Applications The timing of commercial application of new technology depends critically on production costs and environmental impacts.
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From page 117... ...
would make possible the more extensive development and use of advanced oil recovery techniques. Scenario I (with future oil prices less than or equal to about $20/barrel)
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From page 118... ...
would tend to mitigate against thermal enhanced oil recovery and CO2 enhanced oil recovery using fossil CO2. For Scenario VI (no government encouragement of domestic oil production)
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From page 119... ...
Compressed natural gas vehicles, while not expected to be a significant part of the market because of short vehicle range and onboard storage constra~nts, have recently attracted much interest as a relatively low polluting alternative for urban fleet use. TABLE 6-2 Estimated Remaining Economically Producible Natural Gas Resources Current Technology Advanced Technology $3a $sa $3a $sa Tcf Gas (Bbbl oil equivalent)
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From page 120... ...
Methanol synthesis consumes more synthesis gas than coal liquefaction and tends to be more expensive for equal synthesis gas costs. The natural gas price of $4.89/Mcf, corresponds to the historical domestic relationship between gas and fuel oil prices and to a price where coal gasification is expected to be competitive as a methanol source.
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From page 121... ...
In the past the estimated costs for conversion of oil shale were somewhat lower than for coal liquefaction. This change in relative costs reflects the progress from steady DOE R&D on coal liquefaction in recent years.
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From page 122... ...
The DOE should participate in quantifying these effects and variables to help ensure that production technologies for liquid transportation fuels from domestic resources are properly developed to meet future regulations on vehicle emissions. This area requires more detailed study.
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From page 123... ...
System studies research relevant to this combination are recommended. MAJOR CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS A federally funded R&D program on liquid transportation fuels can provide future options for domestic uncertainities in oil prices and investment decisions by the private sector.
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From page 124... ...
124 FUELS TO DRIVE OUR FUTURE TABLE 6-4 DOE,s Office of Fossil Energy R&D Program Budget (current dollars in millions) FY 1990 FY 1988 FY 1989 Appro- Appro- Senate priations priations Request House Panel Coal Budget Control technology and coal preparation $43.62 $48.93 $32.26 $60.10 $53.13 Advanced technology R&D 24.94 25.56 25.54 26.18 29.32 Coal liquefaction 27.13 32.39 9.66 37.68 33.26 Combustion systems 25.17 26.70 15.77 35.27 30.17 Fuel cells 34.20 27.53 6.50 38.40 29.80 Heat engines 17.95 22.83 8.92 20.02 21.22 Underground gasification 2.78 1.37 0.43 0.43 0.83 Magnetohydrodynamics 35.00 37.00 0 42.90 37.00 Surface gasification 22.99 21.56 8.74 19.64 29.88 Total coal $233.78 $243.87 $107.82 $280.62 $264.61 Petroleum Budget Enhanced recovery $16.54 $23.58 $18.24 $27.59 $28.46 Advanced process technology 3.43 4.20 4.62 3.60 3.60 Oil shale 9.50 10.53 1.68 8.18 10.88 Total oil $29.47 $38.31 $24.54 $39.37 $42.94 Gas Budget Unconventional gas $10.53 $11.38 $4.07 $13.17 $15.82 Cooperative R&D Ventures $0 $0 $0 $4.80 $4.80 Total gas $10.53 $11.38 $4.07 $17.97 $20.62 Miscellaneousa $53.22 $88.03 $26.15 $84.72 $81.17 Total fossil R&D $327.00 $381.59 $162.58 $422.68 $409.34 aIncludes plant and capital equipment, program direction, environmental restoration, fuels conversion, and past year's offsets.
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From page 125... ...
Under Scenario II the premise that oil prices will reach $30/barrel within 10 to 20 years conforms with a target of $30/barrel for coal and oil shale through pilot projects and studies over the next 5 years. Under Scenario I the pace of the program could be slowed, whereas Scenario III would call for a more rapid pace.
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From page 126... ...
Coal and western oil shales both represent very large resources compared to domestic petroleum and natural gas. Estimated costs with current technology require oil prices greater than $36 to $43/barrel, but recent advances suggest that their costs may be reduced to the equivalent crude oil price of around $30/barrel or less.
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From page 127... ...
This will help ensure that future regulations are balanced and on a firm technical basis and that the technologies for liquid transportation fuels production are properly developed to meet these regulations. Medium Funding Areas 4.
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From page 128... ...
Conversion processes for petroleum residuum, heavy oils, and tar have been under intensive development in both domestic and foreign petroleum industries. Increasing crude oil prices will tend to favor hydroconversion processes over carbon rejection processes because of the higher liquid product yield from hydroconversion.
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From page 129... ...
However, potentially significant cost reductions have not yet been achieved. Even if direct conversion of natural gas to liquid fuels becomes economically viable, the sources would be predominately low-cost natural gas in foreign locations.
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