Responding to Capability Surprise A Strategy for U.S. Naval Forces (2013) / Chapter Skim
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8 Putting It All Together
8 Putting It All Together
Pages 131-146
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From page 131... ...
and other OPNAV components of the institution's ability to address surprise and, specifically, certain intelligence-inferred surprises, especially those in the gaps between missions and programs, for which there should be some plan available in advance. Naval forces can leverage existing capabilities and work to integrate the potential contributions to adequately prepare for capability surprise and also to ensure collaboration with the other services and with the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD)
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From page 132... ...
. While the office may not be the lead for all aspects of the capability surprise enterprise, it should serve as a leader element to ensure completion and delivery of any operational capability that addresses surprise mitigation.
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From page 133... ...
OPNAV will continue to participate in the final phases and to ensure that the surprise mitigation capabilities are deployed in a timely manner. The stakeholders and participants are brought together, as appropriate to the topic, to address signs of emerging surprises from the scanning and awareness activities of the operational, research, and intelligence establishments in phase 1, and to move toward the modeling and assessment organizations and laboratories to verify feasibility in the middle phases.
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From page 134... ...
134 Surprise Mitigation Challenges Readiness Office PEOs, SYSCOMs Communicate/ Engage Capability Risks Stakeholders in FFC, USCG, MCCDC Enterprise-wide Process Selected Program Approach Plan Scanning & Assessing Surprise Prioritization, Option Resource & Transition Implementation & Force Response Awareness Development & Planning Planning Decision Formulation Outputs Challenges Risk Priority, feasibility, & Program plan Capability Readiness affordability Owner(s) Surprise Mitigation Surprise Mitigation Surprise Mitigation Surprise Mitigation PEOs FFC Office Office Office Office SYSCOMs USCG FORCECOM MCCDC Stakeholders ONR-G N81 N2/N6 DASN RDTE/CTO Surprise Mitigation OSD/SCO ONI FFC N8 MCCDC Office Surprise Mitigation FFC USCG FC-A N9 USCG CG-8/ N9 Office USCG FC-A MCCDC DASN RDTE/CTO FORCECOM N2/6 USCG FC-E & FC-T MCCDC ONR/CNR SYSCOMs DASN RDTE/CTO MCCDC MCCDC USCG FC-P USCG FC-P SYSCOMs Participants/ Industry NWDC, MCWL NWDC, MCWL Industry OPTEVFOR USN, USMC, & USCG Performers Labs/Warfare Centers Industry Industry Labs/Warfare Centers Industry Operational Forces Academia Labs/Warfare Centers Labs/Warfare Centers PEOs Labs/Warfare Centers IC Think tanks Think tanks SYSCOMs Services' Colleges Services' Colleges ONR Activities Technical Intelligence Campaign models TTP Program Planning, TTP/CONOPS TTP/CONOPS S&T monitoring Cultural assessments Modeling Budgeting, & System Modifications Assessment Physical modeling System modeling Prototype Coordination New Programs Testing Experiments/ATD Training Exercises Equipping FIGURE 8-2 Roles and activities to address capability surprise.
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From page 135... ...
BOX 8-1 Abridged List Figure S-3 and 8-3 of Committee Recommendations 1. Implement surprise framework and establish surprise mitigation office to ensure priority capability surprises are addressed and deployed.
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From page 136... ...
However, if the required response to an emerging capability surprise is a new system or major system upgrade, with appropriate program process tailoring, the need and reprogramming might be accomplished within the existing processes and programs in some cases and might require new resources in others. Examples of the Proposed Framework FOR THE THREE Scenarios In Appendix A, the three scenarios -- (1)
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From page 137... ...
Automated Digital Network System (ADNS) -- but apparently not from a multiuser network perspective with quality of service needs considered, such as antijam margin, propagation fading, or message error rate.
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From page 138... ...
Since joint and other Service programs such as GPS are also likely involved, the surprise mitigation office would coordinate with those program offices, perhaps in concert with appropriate OSD offices. After the prototype testing validates the most expedient approach previously identified via modeling and analyses, a program office would be established or designated to develop the integrated plans and gain industry participation.
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From page 139... ...
If it is determined that evolving social media products present a sufficient threat and/or opportunity over an identified time frame, red teaming be considered.
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From page 140... ...
Prioritization, Option Development, and Decision Formulation. This function would lead to definition of potential counters using existing publicly available social media in concert with timely situation awareness knowledge from infield intelligence.
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From page 141... ...
Resource and Transition Planning. One solution might be to resource broader SOF contingency planning, TTP preparation, and more equipping and training of naval forces.
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From page 142... ...
naval activities centered around the use of the USS Ronald Reagan CSG to facilitate air operations. USMC operations centered around hands-on ground services to clear transport points, establish relief hubs, and distribute supplies.
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From page 143... ...
Particularly important, the Navy had the vast experience of HA/DR associated with Operation Unified Assistance, which was established to help with the massive Indian Ocean earthquake and resulting tsunami on December 26, 2004. This disaster, the deadliest tsunami on record (approximately 230,000 dead in 14 countries)
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From page 144... ...
The Coast Guard and the Marine Corps appear to merge red teaming with training to prepare for future incidents. This arrangement -- merging of red teaming and training -- could be extended to all naval forces as well as to other government agencies and perhaps key regional allies and partners.
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From page 145... ...
Global emergencies that occur from time to time have resulted in continuing resourcing, replenishment, contingency planning, and training opportunities for the Coast Guard and the Marine Corps, broadening their naval scope. THE WAY AHEAD All naval forces of the world have been nurtured in an environment that depends heavily on an individual's ability to deal with surprise.
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