Snow Avalanche Hazards and Mitigation in the United States (1990) / Chapter Skim
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6. Forecasting Avalanches
6. Forecasting Avalanches
Pages 47-50
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From page 47... ...
In addition, the avalanche warning service accumulates a data base of avalanche, snowpack, and weather information; provides information to the public on preventative and operational avalanche protection; and performs accident analyses for courts of law. A comprehensive view of avalanche conditions requires the daily acquisition and rapid transmission of observations from all Swiss mountain regions to the FISAR.
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From page 48... ...
The CATC also maintains a computer data set of mountain weather and avalanche events from about 60 sites throughout the Western mountains, continuing the Westwide Avalanche and Mountain Weather Reporting Network originated by the USES in 1966. The Wes~wide network uses standardized instrumentation and data collection procedures and provides valuable statistics on avalanche occurrence and associated snowpack and weather
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From page 49... ...
The Utah Avalanche Forecast Center conducts operations over a smaller region, but it services the most concentrated population of winter backcountry use in the country; its avalanche hotlines receive 50,000 calls per season (Tremper and Ream, 1988~. STATE OF THE FORECASTING ART To evaluate the probability of an avalanche release at some future time, the forecaster must have access to data that describe both the expected meteorological conditions and the anticipated strength conditions of the snow cover.
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From page 50... ...
Methods being examined include linear regression, multivariate discriminant analysis, time-series modeling involving nonparametric methods and pattern recognition, numerical deterministic modeling, nearest-neighbor methods, and artificial intelligence (Buser et al., 1987; Bakkehoi, 1987; LaFeuille et al., 1987; LaFeuille, 1989; Navarre et al., 19874. Although the emphasis on numerical and statistical modeling has focused almost exclusively on meteorological variables, the various methods in current use have produced reasonable results (Buser et al., 19SS, 1987~.
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