Information Technologies and Social Transformation (1985) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
The Evolution of Information Technologies
The Evolution of Information Technologies
Pages 7-33
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 7... ...
Among society's newest demands on technology is for the means to handle the vast amount of information generated by modern life. This information explosion stems from sophisticated business practices, new residential services, substantially increased record keeping through extensive data bases, and the globalization of our advanced society.
|
From page 8... ...
. _ | ·Limits of technology · Quality of life / ~ _ \ · Complexity many ~ \` · t · Economics · R&D prowess · Common good · R&D management · Public receptivity · Embedded base · Regulation and legislation · Natural sequencing · Standards FIGURE 1 The flow of innovations into society.
|
From page 9... ...
Natural sequencing simply means that the invention of the integrated circuit, for example, would have been unlikely before the invention and development of the transistor. The imposition of standards prior to innovation can narrow the technology gate by forcing R&D laboratories to focus on innovations that meet preconceived standards, but which may in the long Ban not be the best innovations at all.
|
From page 10... ...
The forces operating at the social gate are extremely powerful in selecting the innovations that actually succeed. They serve as a "tollgate" in the gap between the push of technology and the pull of society.
|
From page 11... ...
Integrated Circuits The most powerful force of technology today is the expanding capabilities of silicon integrated circuits. A tiny chip of silicon can contain an electronic circuit consisting of hundreds of thousands of transistors and all the necessary interconnecting conductors—and its cost is only a few dollars.
|
From page 12... ...
Computing Technology Computing technology is a major beneficiary of the power of integrated circuits. Figure 3 shows the past trends in computer processing power and forecasts the future.
|
From page 13... ...
However, the limit of chip processing power is not a limit to the processing power of computing. For computing is rapidly moving toward new architectures involving multiplicities of processing elements such as single-chip computers.
|
From page 14... ...
Figure 4 compares AT&T Bell Laboratones' productivity growth for producing software with that for design of silicon integrated circuit chips and circuit packs. The bad news is common throughout the industry.
|
From page 15... ...
Photon~cs technology has progressed rapidly. In about a decade the technology has achieved some difficult technical milestones: · Developing high-purity, ultratransparent, and high-strength glass fibers; Constructing long-life lasers that can operate at room temperature and at the appropriate wavelengths; Optimizing the mode of lightwave propagation in the fiber and shifting from multimode to single-mode fibers for many applications; - Determining and exploiting the unique wavelengths at which fiber transmission losses are the lowest; · Developing means for wavelength multiplexing of multiple bit streams onto the same fiber; and
|
From page 16... ...
The corresponding amplifier spacings have increased from about 8 kilometers to more than 30 kilometers. In laboratory experiments described recently, AT&T Bell Laboratones set a "distance record" by transmitting 420 million bits per second over 125 miles without amplification.
|
From page 17... ...
Simple detection theory can be used to estimate the physical limit of today's lightwave technology. The estimate involves combining the theoretical loss and nonlinear behavior of glass fiber with an assumed maximum allowable laser power of approximately 1 watt and a minimum requirement of about 10 to 100 photons per pulse.
|
From page 18... ...
And of more modest impact are new materials systems and clever innovations that create the niche technologies. Potential Breakthroughs in Silicon Circuits As noted earlier, the limits of today's silicon technology are basically determined by how small a working transistor can be made and by how large a chip can be made.
|
From page 19... ...
Much innovation will be required before optics can come close to matching the processing power of today's integrated circuits. Moreover, today's optical logic requires relatively high power, with the associated problems of heat dissipation.
|
From page 20... ...
All this represents a very fine mamage between the capabilities of integrated circuits and the needs of distributed-software systems. The full potential of software architectures based on the limits of integrated circuit technology is yet to be fillly understood.
|
From page 21... ...
electronic switch are adding even greater capability to meet the growing needs of automated data networks. Integrated Circuits Based on Compound Materials The integrated circuit industry is based mainly on silicon.
|
From page 22... ...
It is simply too early to predict the ultimate extent to which gallium arsenide will transfer significant production away from silicon. The potential of large-scale integrated circuits based on other compound semiconductor materials is largely unknown.
|
From page 23... ...
Because molecular beam epitaxy permits control of materials down to the atomic levels, it offers exciting and expanding opportunities to custom-fabr~cate new materials that may lead to new device concepts, including lasers. TECHNOLOGY SELECTION AND THE PACE OF INNOVATION Now that we have a view of the key technologies, their limits, and potential new technologies, let us further examine the gating forces that determine how the winning technologies will be selected and the resulting pace of innovation.
|
From page 24... ...
At 10 cents per logic gate, the 4ESS electronic switch, a large digital toll machine, and the Dimensions Private Branch Exchange became feasible. At 1 cent per logic gate, 5ESS Infonnation Age local digital switches became feasible, along with a wide variety of microprocessor-based "intelligent" telephones and terminals.
|
From page 25... ...
R&D Economics The force of economics is somewhat stronger at the social gate than it is at the technology gate, but even so it is a powerful force behind our R&D laboratories and even our university research centers. For at their limits the key technologies are extremely expensive to develop.
|
From page 26... ...
By opening up vast new frontiers of business opportunity and spawning numerous competitors, solid-state technology blended telecommunications and data processing and led to the restructuring of those industries, just as the engine forced restructuring in the industrial revolution. Industry structure, in turn, is a strong force in technology selection and in pacing innovation.
|
From page 27... ...
In general, regulatory actions direct an entire industry or the most able within that industry. Actions are usually based on issues other than technology selection or pace, but the result may have enormous impact on technology.
|
From page 28... ...
A major challenge is to try to separate the political and technical issues, with the hope that the technical issues can be resolved promptly. The Embedded Technology Base Three examples illustrate the force of the embedded base: silicon circuits, lightwave systems, and magnetic bubbles.
|
From page 29... ...
So it will be a long time, if ever, before magnetic bubbles displace the embedded base. Josephson junction and other cryogenic devices appear to suffer the same fate, though they have never gotten as close to the competition as did magnetic bubbles.
|
From page 30... ...
By keeping the computer informed ofthe nearest telephone, you could designate calls to be routed automatically to you—wherever you might be, at your office, home, car, or at some hotel while on a tnp. The same network intelligence is at the heart of cellular radio technology, which makes it potentially feasible for every car to have a telephone.
|
From page 31... ...
These machines could search huge quantities of transmitted data, selecting and storing only the particular information—perhaps a news item, stock quote, message, or even a movie- that fits their users' needs or interests. Expert Systems The combination of increasingly powerful integrated circuits, computing technology, and software should enhance knowledge and allow increasingly expert software to take over some tasks done by expert
|
From page 32... ...
It is digital systems made up mostly of integrated circuits mounted on printed wiring boards. The equipment is extremely compact in terms of number of gates per circuit board.
|
From page 33... ...
More likely, the rapid pace of current developments will continue to create ever more favorable economics, and extend the known technologies into new domains. The forces that control the pace of innovation and technology selection are not likely to change substantially unless the restructuring of the telephone industry produces unexpected results or overseas competition forces government action.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.