Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming (1991) / Chapter Skim
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6 MITIGATION
6 MITIGATION
Pages 47-63
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From page 47... ...
This analysis is a cross-sectional, as opposed to a longitudinal, analysis of options over time. It does not attempt, for example, to project future levels of economic activity and their implications for greenhouse gas emissions.
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From page 48... ...
The potential loss in value to consumers of the changes in consumption patterns must be estimated. TECHNOLOGICAL COSTING VERSUS ENERGY MODELING There are two choices for estimating the costs of various mitigation options: "technological costing" and "energy modeling." Technological costing develops estimates on the basis of a variety of assumptions about the technical aspects, together with estimates often no more than guesses of the costs of implementing the required technology.
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From page 49... ...
Energy modeling analyses are challenged because of weaknesses in model specification, measurement error, and questionable relevance of historical data and behavior for future untested policy actions. In this study, the cost-effectiveness indicators for mitigation actions are derived mostly from technological costing rather than energy modeling analyses.
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From page 50... ...
FIGURE 6.1 A comparison of hypothetical mitigation options. Curves show the costs of various levels of reduction in CO2-equivalent emissions.
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From page 51... ...
FIGURE 6.2 A comparison of multiple mitigation options. Curves show the costs of various levels of reduction in CO2-equivalent emissions for four hypothetical mitigation options.
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From page 52... ...
The panel estimates emission reductions that could be achieved if explicitly defined feasible opportunities were executed. For example, one option calls for reducing energy use in residential lighting by 50 percent through replacement of incandescent lighting (2.5 interior light bulbs and 1 exterior light bulb
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From page 53... ...
The geoengineering options in this preliminary analysis include several ways of reducing temperature increases by screening sunlight (e.g., space mirrors, stratospheric dust, multiple balloons, stratospheric soot, and stimulating cloud condensation nuclei) as well as stimulation of ocean uptake of CO2.
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From page 54... ...
Improve efficiency by 40 to 60% through residential measures mentioned above, heat pumps, and heat recovery systems. Reduce lighting energy consumption by 30 to 60% by replacing 100% of commercial light fixtures with compact fluorescent lighting, reflectors, occupancy sensors, and daylighting.
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From page 55... ...
Increase recycling and reduce energy consumption primarily in the primary metals, pulp and paper, chemicals, and petroleum refining industries through new, less energy intensive process innovations. TRANSPORTATION ENERGY MANAGEMENT Vehicle Efficiency Light Vehicles Heavy Trucks Aircraft Use technology to improve on-road fuel economy to 25 mpg (32.5 mpg in CAFEb terms)
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From page 56... ...
Improve overall thermal efficiency of coal plants by 10% through use of integrated gasification combined cycle, pressurized fluidizedbed, and advanced pulverized coal combustion systems. Replace all existing fossil-fuel-fired plants with gas turbine combined cycle systems to both improve thermal efficiency of current natural gas combustion systems and replace fossil fuels such as coal and oil that generate more CO2 than natural gas.
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From page 57... ...
HFC-Chillers HFC-Auto Air Conditioning HFC-Appliance HCFC-Other Refrigeration HCFCIlIFC-Appliance Insulation Agriculture (domestic) Paddy Rice Ruminant Animals Nitrogenous Fertilizers Landfill Gas Collection GEOENGINEERING Reforestation Replace fossil-fuel-fired plants with wind generation potential of 5.3 quads.
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From page 58... ...
options, including space mirrors and removal of CFCs from the atmosphere, are not included among those recommended for further investigation in Chapter 9. Geoengineering options appear technically feasible in terms of cooling effects and costs on the basis of currently available preliminary information.
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From page 59... ...
Net benefit 300 million Industrial energy management Net benefit to low cost 500 million Transportation system management Net benefit to low cost 50 million Power plant heat rate improvements Net benefit to low cost 50 million Landfill gas collection Low cost 200 million Halocarbon-CFC usage reduction Low cost 1400 million Agriculture Low cost 200 million Reforestation Low to moderate costs 200 million Electricity supply Low to moderate costs 1000 millions aNet benefit = cost less than or equal to zero Low cost = cost between $1 and $9 per ton of CO2 equivalent Moderate cost = cost between $10 and $99 per ton of CO2 equivalent High cost = cost of $100 or more per ton of CO2 equivalent bThis "maximum feasible" potential emission reduction assumes 100 percent implementation of each option in reasonable applications and is an optimistic "upper bound" on emission reductions. This depends on the actual implementation level and is controversial.
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From page 60... ...
Cloud stimulated by Low 4 trillion or amount desired provision of cloud condensation nuclei Stimulation of ocean Low to moderate 7 billion or amount desired biomass with iron Stratospheric bubbles (multiple balloons) Space mirrors Low to moderate Atmospheric CFC removal Unknown Low to moderate 4 trillion or amount desired 4 trillion or amount desired Unknown NOTE: The feasibility and possible side-effects of these geoengineering options are poorly understood.
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From page 61... ...
CO2 equivalent emissions 0 2 4 6 8 EMISSION REDUCTION (billion tons CO2 equivalent per year) FIGURE 6.3 Comparison of mitigation options.
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From page 62... ...
CO2 equivalent emissions o 2 4 6 EMISSION REDUCTION (billion tons CO2 equivalent per year) 8 FIGURE 6.4 Comparison of mitigation options using technological costing and energy modeling calculations.
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From page 63... ...
CONCLUSIONS There is a potential to inexpensively reduce or offset greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. In particular, the maximum feasible potential reduction for the options labeled "net benefit" and "low cost" in Table 6.2 totals about 3.6 billion tons (3.6 Gt)
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