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Historical Trends
Historical Trends
Pages 5-27
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From page 5... ...
The data for the period since 1920 have been assembled from the Doctorate Records File (DRF) maintained by the Commission on Human Resources of the National Research Council (NRC)
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From page 6... ...
In Figure 3, the area of each new ring is proportional to the number of new degrees granted in the 5-year 50,000 10,000 5,000 § 1.000 8 O 500 m D 100 60 10 A logarithmic icalt of numbers of PhO's straightens out an exponential growth curve, revealing spurts and slow downs 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1960 YEAR SOURCE: NRC, Commission on Human Resources FIGURE 2 Doctorates granted annually (logarithmic icale)
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From page 7... ...
Most of the data available with respect to doctorate output and the characteristics of PhD's comes from the period since 1920, which marks the beginning of the DRF of the Commission on Human Resources of the NRC. Although data collection for the DRF began only in 1946, it was possible to go back to the universities and obtain graduation records, permitting the beginning of a name file, with individual data on each graduate.
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From page 8... ...
30 g f U O I < S3 o 20 Smoothing the growth curve accentuates the longer-term changes in growth; the 1970's saw a sharp break in the curve 1920 1930 1940 1950 YEAR 1960 1970 SOURCE: NRC, Commission on Human Resources FIGURE 4 Growth in doctorates since 1920.
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From page 9... ...
+50 +40 S +30 K U +20 +10 UJ o oc UJ -20 -30 The science fields all respond to major influences but with slightly different patterns of growth rates Life Sciences Behavioral Sciences Engineering. Meth, and Physical Sciences 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 YEAR SOURCE: NRC, Commission on Human Resources FIGURE 6 Growth increments in doctorates granted in three science fields.
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From page 10... ...
life sciences, and (3) behavioral sciences.
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From page 11... ...
It was chosen to iron out the random fluctuations that occur with small numbers, as, for example, with women in the earlier years of this period.) It is clear from Figure 9 that the effect of World War II and its aftermath was greater for men than for women, as expected.
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From page 12... ...
12 TABLE 2A DOCTORATES AWARDED ANNUALLY IN ENGINEERING, MATHEMATICS, AND NATURAL SCIENCES, 1920-1974, WITH 5-YEAR SUMMARIES 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 562 662 ill 21 129 19 7 10 15 199 38 34 42 H 109 91 12 \l 27 45 32 IB II!
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From page 13... ...
61* 7182 24357 7357 35071 586 67371 GRAND TOTAL 32855 16285 12022 11842 5880 78884 306219 18556 19805 14209 20162 72732 19756 87523 1205181216 SOURCE: NRC, Commission on Human Resources.
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From page 14... ...
SOURCE: NRC, Commission on Human Resources. mix" of men and women PhD's.
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From page 15... ...
In Figure 10, it is apparent that the curve for baccalaureate degrees granted to women is converging with that for men; this is an obvious source of influence for the corresponding but weaker tendency, somewhat later, at the doctorate level. Because BA-PhD time lapse varies by field and by time period, and because people switch fields between the baccalaureate and doctorate, it is not possible to demonstrate a close linkage between baccalaureate output in a given period and PhD output at some later time.
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From page 16... ...
Average Annual Rale of Change Current Constant* Year Total NonFederal federal Total NonFederal federal 19531961 13.7% 163% 10.0% 11.4% 14.0% 7.8% 1961-1967 8.3 7.7 9.6 6.0 5.3 7.2 1967-1976 5.7 3.8 8.3 -0.3 -2.2 2.1 1953 "Bated on the GNP implicit price deflator SOURCE: National Science Foundation 1973 75 76 (est)
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From page 17... ...
Figure 15 also incorporates small tables showing the numbers of male and female PhD's, together with percentages, and also the relative propor20 15 o X in O £ o. o K 10 Women as a percentage of all PhD's climbed from 1900 to the late 1920's, then dropped until the mid-1950's, and have risen rapidly in recent years Ql I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 YEAR SOURCE- NRC, Commission on Human Resources FIGURE 13 Women PhD's, 1900-1974.
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From page 18... ...
The heavy line shows the growth of the EMP group. The largest single group shown in Figure 16, it also depicts the general growth curve, with a slowing down in the depression and World War II periods, the sharp postwar spurt, the secondary slowing down, then the extended high growth during the 1960's, and, finally, a slower growth during the 1970's -- a familiar picture shown in a different form earlier in this chapter.
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From page 19... ...
Arts, end Education 49.4 75.5 SOURCE: NRC, Commission on Human Resources FIGURE 15 Field mix by sex, 1920-1974.
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From page 20... ...
Even during World War II education continued to grow, a function of two factors: the large proportion of women in the field and the relatively advanced age at doctorate in the education field, both factors diminishing the effect of the draft. The continued growth of the EMP fields during the World War II period was due to a quite different reason -- the vital importance of these fields to the war effort.
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From page 21... ...
o UJ O rr 60 40 -s. O 20 31 -- 21 - 145 333 0L 27 EMP Fields 152 Life Sciences 170 Behavioral Sciences 403 All Nonscience Fields Combined I I I I I I 1 I 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 YEAR SOURCE: NRC, Commission on Human Resources FIGURE 17 Changing proportions of four general field groups.
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From page 22... ...
Humanities, Professions, and Education Language and Literature Other Humanities Period Psychology Social Sciences Professions Education Total 1920-1924 1925-1929 1930-1934 35.6 33.0 30.8 64.4 67.0 69.2 30.8 24.2 27.9 34.1 31.7 28.0 12.9 13.4 11.7 22.2 30.6 32.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 1935-1939 1940-1944 1945-1949 31.8 29.0 33.1 68.2 71.0 66.9 32.0 26.7 21.7 24.7 22.5 22.4 10.0 10.5 10.7 33.3 40.3 45.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 1950-1954 1955-1959 1960-1964 43.4 46.5 44.8 56.6 53.5 55.2 18.9 18.0 17.4 23.3 22.1 23.0 9.3 10.2 11.6 48.6 49.6 48.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 1965-1969 1970-1974 42.7 41.1 57.3 58.9 18.3 17.0 21.4 19.9 11.3 11.0 49.1 52.1 100.0 100.0 Percentages may not total 100.0 because of rounding. SOURCE: NRC, Commission on Human Resources.
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From page 23... ...
1970 SOURCE: NRC. Commission on Human Resources FIGURE 20 Changing field mix depicted as tree ring segments.
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From page 24... ...
Overall, the proportion of women in the PhD population is about 13.6 percent at present; it has varied from nearly 15 percent in 1940 to less than 12 percent in 1960. The logarithmic scale results in a compression of these numbers by a factor of about 8, when the male and total data are com'ihe computer program that produces PhD population estimates begins with data on the distribution of age at completion of the PhD, separately for each sex, field, and time period of graduation -- a rather extensive data set.
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From page 25... ...
There are differences in growth rate, ranging from an average annual increment of 5.0 percent in chemistry to 7.5 percent in mathematics. As expected on the basis of doctoral graduations, the growth has been steepest over the past 15 yee.rs and, for most fields, slowest during the World War II period.
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From page 26... ...
SOURCE: NRC, Commission on Human Resources. a growth rate of 6.3 percent per year.
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From page 27... ...
Commission on Human Resources FIGURE 23 Three fast-growing PhD populations. over.
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