Toward Better Utilization of Scientific and Engineering Talent: a Program for Action; Report (1964) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 65-155
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From page 65... ...
A comprehensive manpower policy, obviously, is concerned with the effective employment, development, and utilization of all human resources -- the skilled as well as the unskilled, scientific and engineering manpower as well as administrative and managerial personnel, those in public and in private employment, those who are employed as well as those who are seeking work, and the new generations preparing for employment as well as those presently in the labor force. THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT In a pluralistic society such as ours, the bases of manpower policy are quite properly widely diffused.
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From page 66... ...
Thus the main objective of any national manpower policy is not to regulate but rather to energize the activities of thousands of decision-making organizations by providing them vrith information, tools, and ideas for better assessment of the total impact of their decisions. A national manpower policy does not require an expansion of the role of the federal government, for it already has far-reaching influence upon manpower policy, as can be seen from these few examples of its present involvement: 1 The federal government is the largest single employer of manpower in the nation.
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From page 67... ...
Such an organization would have responsibilities relating to manpower parallel to those of the present Council of Economic Advisers in economic affairs. The creation of such a council would require new legislation, and it is doubtful whether the issues involved in national manpower policy are as yet clearly enough defined to command the support of the Congress for a council of this kind.
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From page 68... ...
This proposal, like the preceding one, would require no new legislation. Its major objective would be to organize a cooperative effort by the agencies concerned to develop a national manpower policy.
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From page 69... ...
And, in comparison with studies of unionism and collective bargaining, the attention given to research on the labor force, on unemployment, on the operation of labor markets, and on manpower development has not been very great. Finally, the Council of Economic Advisers, until very recently, has concentrated its thinking on general problems of aggregate employment rather than on specific questions of education and manpower-development policy.
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From page 70... ...
In any case, a seminar of this kind would be indispensable for the productive operation of any governmental apparatus concerned with the development of a national manpower policy. CONCLUSION Even in our pluralistic society, the federal government now has far-reaching influence on employment, human-resource development, and the allocation and utilization of the nation's manpower.
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From page 71... ...
The report presents the findings of a pilot study of scientific and engineering manpower requirements for Gerhard Colm is Chief Economist, National Planning Association.
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From page 72... ...
3 The estimates of shortage presuppose that the institutional arrangements influencing the supply of and demand for technical manpower will remain as they are at present. If these arrangements were to be changed through planning by business, education, and government, the prospective shortage could be substantially reduced or even eliminated.
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From page 73... ...
The estimates for growth refer to manpower needs for the output in each of the sectors corresponding to the levels of gross national product projected in the study. Past trends and current developments in the percentage of total employment made up of scientists and engineers in each sector provide a basis for estimating demand for technical manpower by sector.
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From page 74... ...
This figure compares with an estimate by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration of 43,500 scientific and engineering employees in its programs in 1963 and a forecast of 64,000 in 1964.' Less spectacularly, the goals concerned with housing, industrial plant, or public buildings are estimated to require 65,000 technical personnel in construction, an increase of over 100 per cent and largely made up of engineers. Similarly, the goal in research and development projects an increase in the number of research workers in all fields to approximately 825,000 by 1970.
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From page 75... ...
Scientists and engineers for college faculty in the education goal grow by 40,000 to a total of 345,000 in 1975. For the entire 1960-1975 period, the largest rates of increase in demand for technical manpower are in education and space.
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From page 76... ...
Implementing the standard for our education goal would add some 200,000 scientists and engineers to the available supply by 1975. The data in the tables listing requirements for scientific and engineering personnel are consistent with other estimates for 1970 published by the National Science Foundation and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.' They are also consistent with experience in the 1950's.
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From page 77... ...
Also present in the mix are non-economic elements including the chances for professional fulfillment in work, or the status of engineers in American society. The projections of degrees would provide more useful guides for manpower policy if our understanding of the processes by which these incentives motivate individuals to make educational and career choices were improved by research.
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From page 78... ...
APPENDIX TABLE C PROJECTED REQUIREMENTS FOR SCIENTISTS, 1970 AND PROJECTED REQUIREMENTS 19751970 to 1975 to SECTOR OF ESTIMATED ACTUAL maintain for maintain .for ECONOMY EMPLOYMENT IN 1960 growth goals growth goals BUSINESS 171,800 271,800 299,500 328,200 360,100 1 Mining 12,400 15,300 16,800 17.400 18,400 2 Construction 2,400 4,400 5,000 5,300 5,800 3 Manufacturing 140,700 228,600 243,200 276,900 301,300 4 Transportation, Communication and Public Utilities 2,800 3,100 3,300 3,800 4,300 i 5 Engineering and Architectural Services 2,600 3,800 4,100 4,400 4,700 6 Other Non-Manufacturing 10,900 16,600 27,100 20,400 26,600 NONPROFIT ORGANIZATIONS 4,700 8,100 9,600 10,900 13,200 GOVERNMENT 60,700 88,800 114,900 109,300 145,100 1 Federal 43,000 63,800 86,600 78,500 104,800 2 State-Local 17,700 25,000 28,300 30,800 40,300 COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES 98,100 172,500 239,100 204,500 270,300 TOTAL 336,300 541,200 663,100 652,900 788,700 • These figures are estimates of the total demand in 1970 and 1976.
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From page 79... ...
If this were our objective, the anticipated shortages of highly trained manpower would be paralleled by similar deficits in, for example, water, timber, or in transportation and industrial plant. The important problem is not so much the over-all shortages likely to occur from projecting current tendencies as it is a question of the relevant choices in matching our resources, including scientists and engineers, with a multitude of needs.
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From page 80... ...
APPENDIX TABLE E PROJECTED NUMBER OF BACHELOR'S DEGREES IN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, TO 1974 ASSUMING GROWTH CONDITIONS ASSUMING EDUCATION GOAL Bachelor Bachelor Degrees in Science & Engineering Degrees in Science & Engineering Bachelor Degrees in Engineering Bachelor Degrees in Science Bachelor Degrees in Bachelor Degrees in Science PERIOD Engineering 1960 (Actual)
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From page 81... ...
Costs of providing adequate metropolitan transportation systems, plus costs of providing cultural and recreational facilities, public utilities, and coping with problems such as water pollution. Standards are as defined by various public and private authorities such as Isaacs and Dyckman, Dewhurst, New York Regional Plan, Rockefeller Bros., and congressional committees.
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From page 82... ...
1275ff; THE LONG-RANGE DEMAND FOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PERSONNEL, National Science Foundation, 1961; and PROFILES OF MANPOWER IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, National Science Foundation, 1963. The estimates in this report of the 1970 requirements to maintain growth are 100,000 less than in the MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW article.
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From page 83... ...
Perhaps it won't happen that way, but if it did it would represent the result of a certain allocation of technical manpower. For this is the age of technology.
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From page 84... ...
Using the information presently at our disposal, we must try to assess the distribution of scientific and engineering manpower among its major uses: governmental defense and space programs, civilian research and development in private enterprise, university research and teaching, and other civilian activities in the public sector. Ill ALLOCATION AND MANPOWER SHORTAGES Whether a given resource presents a serious problem in allocation depends on the degree of scarcity of the resource.
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From page 85... ...
"LIFE SCIENTISTS The supply of biological and agricultural scientists is generally sufficient to meet requirements of employers, except for those with advanced degrees and in some specialties, both experienced and inexperienced. Life scientists are particularly in demand for research work in areas related to the medical and health fields." 2 The picture conveyed is of a shortage of experienced engineers in those specialties most heavily used in missile and aerospace activities; a shortage of research personnel with advanced degrees, especially Ph.D's; and a balanced labor market in other respects.
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From page 86... ...
This discrepancy between market incentives and national welfare, where civilian research and development is concerned, has been ably analyzed by Richard R Nelson: "There are good reasons to believe that market incentives tend to cause business firms to spend much less than is socially desirable on research and experimental development exploring advanced concepts and designs.
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From page 87... ...
In fact, federal funds supplied to the aircraft and missile, and electrical equipment and communication industries accounted for almost half of all research and development work conducted anywhere in private industry, for any purpose and under any sponsorship, during the year 1962, I am not in a position to make authoritative statements concerning the utilization of scientific and engineering manpower in defense and space. One would expect an unusually high consumption of research and development manpower in space and defense because the whole emphasis has shifted to advanced development rather than mass production.
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From page 88... ...
V CIVILIAN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN PRIVATE ENTERPRISE The growth of research and development in the postwar period was so phenomenal that a progressive intensification has been taken for granted. Professor Machlup of Princeton, author of a treatise on "The Production and Distribution of Knowledge in the United States," tells us that research and development grew at an annual rate of 19.8 per cent between 1940 and 1960.
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From page 89... ...
It should be added that very little research and development work is conducted in non-manufacturing industries, where the bulk of the gross national product is produced ; and that 200 firms account for over three fourths of all company-financed research and development." Thus the status of civilian research and development in the United States is not too reassuring. Most of it is done by large firms in a few manufacturing industries.
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From page 90... ...
These industries never have done a large amount of research and development, however, even when their costs were lower. My over-all judgment is that the retardation of civilian research and development must be explained by reasons other than manpower shortages.
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From page 91... ...
Competition for high-level manpower is centered on doctorate holders. Educational institutions struggle with industrial research organizations and government laboratories over an inadequate supply of scholars, who are proselytized with the same diligence formerly devoted to the recruitment of football players.
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From page 92... ...
Concentrating now on scientists and engineers in higher education, we see once more the prodigious influence of federal government programs. Seventy-five per cent of all research and development work conducted by colleges and universities is now supported by federal funds ($1,050,000,000 out of $1,400,000,000 in 1961-62, according to the National Science Foundation)
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From page 93... ...
Considering the critical shortage of qualified faculty members during the current decade, does this represent good allocation? Educational institutions have never possessed exclusive jurisdiction over Ph.D.'s.
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From page 94... ...
Wiesner has proposed that federal money should be used for building up new centers of excellence in graduate education and research, "particularly in geographical areas aspiring to acquire a technological base." " 4 The federal government must recognize the decisive role it plays in determining not only the location of scientific activity but also the kinds of research and development work done. The policy of concentrating support in a relatively small number of institutions has its pro's and eon's, but the policy of loading up the universities with applied research and development, as distinguished from basic research, is more difficult to defend.
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From page 95... ...
This statement applies not only as between military and civilian research, but also within the civilian sector. The government has already undertaken vast programs of research in two civilian activities, medicine and agriculture.
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From page 96... ...
For this purpose a Federal Council on Scientific and Technical Manpower might provide a medium for the continuing study and consultation that is needed. The personnel of such a council should be sufficiently authoritative so that its conclusions will be genuinely influential.
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From page 97... ...
Fact-gathering and analysis are mutually dependent and mutually supporting; it can be assumed that if government agencies develop an adequate information program, university social scientists will take advantage of it. 3 While every educated citizen should have a good grounding in science, I do not believe that our technical manpower problems can, or should, be solved by drawing a much greater proportion of college and university students into the technical professions.
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From page 98... ...
Smog control, rapid transit, water depollution, educational organization, and urban redevelopment, for example, are also integrally related to the national welfare and could benefit from the allocation of more technical manpower. In an age of technology, the way in which a society uses its technical manpower is a pretty good indication of its values.
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From page 99... ...
Specific questions might ask what would be the probable requirements for scientists and engineers and related resources, in addition to funds, and what is likely to be the impact of these requirements on competing national programs and on total national manpower and related resources. In a different decisionmaking area, policy questions could ask what academic fields of doctoral education should be federally supported, at what levels of support, and whether doctoral support should take priority over baccalaureate support.
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From page 100... ...
Such decisions constitute primarily an allocation of federal support among competing broad programs such as defense, non-military space, atomic energy, health, and food, and, secondarily, choices among specific alternatives within these programs. These allocations have major effects on the direction and distribution of scientific and engineering effort.
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From page 101... ...
Actually, of course, many organizations have both allocating and performing functions; different segments or echelons usually perform the two distinct functions separately. The term "performing organization" is here used to mean one that utilizes allocated resources in research, development, design, testing, fabrication, production, or other activities requiring scientists, engineers, and specialized supporting personnel and facilities.
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From page 102... ...
Decisions by Individual Students, Scientists, and Engineers Many types of presently available manpower-related information also are useful to individual students, scientists, and engineers. Improved and more timely information would provide better guidance in the making of a variety of personal decisions such as the following: -- Educational choices including field of major study, level of degree, and even specific courses.
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From page 103... ...
In this period six reports were issued concerning scientific and technical manpower problems, and all six emphasized informational inadequacies. Much of what was then concluded is still applicable, including many of the proposals for improvement.1 Although considerable improvement has occurred since these six critical reports of 1957-59, comments made during recent months show that major inadequacies remain.*
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From page 104... ...
Insufficient Longitudinal Study of Complex Entities Data concerning individual scientists and engineers are now collected from them periodically, each time covering key aspects of individual backgrounds and current employment. Longitudinal studies of occupational development and mobility of individuals or groups are difficult to make with this successive-collection technique, but would be relatively easy using a cumulativecollection technique in which the data are maintained and made accessible in terms of each individual (see "Lowest Adequate Information Sources" described on page 108)
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From page 105... ...
Space does not permit an exhaustive listing of recent, ongoing, and planned studies of manpower-related information, but progress on many fronts is clearly evident. In particular, see NSF's recent report of progress on the Hauser Panel recommendations, "Status of the Program for National Information on Scientific and Technical Personnel." Informational Poverty amidst Informational Wealth Yet a problem seems to exist with respect to information about scientific and technical manpower and related factors, in spite of the wealth of information that has been and is being collected, and in spite of the large number of organizations engaged in col105
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From page 106... ...
Why do the compilers, evaluaters, publishers, and coordinators of manpower-related information themselves seem to be aware of deficiencies and anxious for improvements? The inherent complexities of technical manpower-related information provide much of the explanation.
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From page 107... ...
The patterns and ratios of such supporting personnel differ widely for different types of technical work and among different organizations. End Objectives It is important but often difficult to determine the end objective of technical work, even in such broad terms as defense, nonmilitary space exploration, improvement of industrial products and processes, health, increase and rationalization of basic knowledge, and the like.
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From page 108... ...
. • Listed below are five reasons for the use of "Lowest Adequate Information Units and Sources" as a basic methodological approach: 1 Information not obtained directly from the operational source has less reliability due to increase in errors and decrease in completeness.
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From page 109... ...
For many types of data, the samples should be as identical or overlapping as possible from period to period in order to provide source-continuity for longitudinal studies, such as of the mobility and development of scientists and engineers and the cycles of projects. With specific reference to detailed data concerning individual scientists and engineers, several alternative approaches are possible, requiring careful comparative costbenefit studies.
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From page 110... ...
This should cover the decision-making requirements of major decision-makers; mathematical models for providing estimates from incomplete or inadequate data; techniques for projecting both requirements and supply; methods for estimating probable errors of statistically derived totals, trends, projections, and degrees of interrelationship; pattern-analysis techniques concerning utilization of resources on key projects in a variety of defense, space, health, and other fields, including technical manpower, funds, materials, supporting personnel, facilities, and other resources; approaches for analyzing and projecting differential flow from academic fields of training into actual work specialties and functional fields; means for studying the structure and dynamics of successful technical teams; and research in a wide variety of other methodological and data-utilization areas. The objectives of such research should be to determine what information parameters and techniques are most illuminating, useful, and even essential for decision-making; which types of information must be collected from total populations of individuals and organizations and which may be collected from samples; how frequently the various types of information should be collected; the most efficient means for interlocking and interrelating information; the time requirement for completion of various types of information studies; and related information problems.
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From page 111... ...
The fourth should be improvement of interlocks among disparate data. A fifth should be the making of cross-factor analyses not otherwise feasible, which would require access to basic data collected by various agencies in terms of Lowest Adequate Information Units and Sources (see page 108)
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From page 112... ...
The limited attention given to these scientific and engineering personnel does not imply that they are unimportant, but merely that this paper has a restricted focus. Focusing attention here on scientists and engineers engaged in research and development supported by DOD-NASA funds means that we are dealing with some 275,000 individuals, out of a total scientific and engineering population of 112
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From page 113... ...
Thus, in considering the impact of government systems-acquisition on the utilization of scientific and engineering personnel, it is important to bear particularly in mind its impact on these scarce (and valuable) members of the research and development population.
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From page 114... ...
and the military satellite programs. It would be easy to jump to the conclusion that we permit too many systems to enter research and development, and that the systems that have been developed but do not enter production essentially represent a wastage of dollars and scientific and engineering personnel.
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From page 115... ...
It is not clear, however, whether parallel improvements will be made in the utilization of top-quality scientific and engineering manpower. While dollars are wholly interchangeable, the same is not true of individual scientific and engineering personnel in research and development.
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From page 116... ...
It is suggested that questions of this type can be just as significant as either the over-all scientific and engineering manpower or over-all fiscal impact of a proposed new program. Just as there have been numerous instances in the past where the Department of Defense and other agencies have been overprogrammed relative to available funds, there is a strong suspicion that the sum of their requirements has sometimes exceeded the supply of really competent scientific and engineering "core" personnel and may have completely drained the reservoir of total scientific and engineering manpower in particular specialties.
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From page 117... ...
Thus pre-contract competition absorbs a considerable number of scientific and engineering personnel. No data exist as to the total expenditure, in part because it is often difficult to separate pre-contract work from the company's independent research and development.
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From page 118... ...
Better control over changes should tend to conserve scientific and engineering manpower. Whether or not the stock-piling of scientists and engineers is a thing of the past, the fact remains that the fluctuations in the flow of contract funds to individual companies causes variable demand for company scientific and engineering personnel.
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From page 119... ...
It should be pointed out that the maintenance and monitorship of these control systems requires a substantial amount of both contractor and government manpower, and that some portion of this manpower probably must be scientific and engineering personnel. Nevertheless, continued experimentation, testing, and experience with a variety of control systems are probably inevitable and justified.
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From page 120... ...
But, in part, to government grants. To be in fact, comparatively little is known sure, the process of source-selection is about the specific impact of the contracnot conducted within a competitive frame- tual process on scientific and engineering work, but there is nonetheless a consid- personnel working under government erable measure of competition.
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From page 121... ...
5 What was the pattern of the buildup and stand-down of scientific and engineering personnel on the project? Does it appear to have been effective in terms of utilization?
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From page 122... ...
For this cooperation, essential to the timely completion of the task, the Committee is extremely grateful. Each of the researchers spent considerable time in familiarizing himself with the system assigned to him and with the general structure for systems development and for in-house scientific and engineering personnel management in his respective service.
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From page 123... ...
NAVAL TACTICAL DATA SYSTEM 1 The Identification and Role of Key Personnel In the NTDS development, major roles were played by a relatively small number of key personnel in government or contractor organizations. Virtually all these individuals had some type of technical background or training, even though their duties on the project might be essentially administrative.
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From page 124... ...
The peak year (1961) saw an average of 260 scientific and engineering personnel assigned to the project, 14 per cent of the total professional strength at RR-U, St.
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From page 125... ...
Of the eight, two had no degrees, five had bachelor degrees in electrical engineering (3) , in chemical engineering or mathematics from Minnesota (3)
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From page 126... ...
Its depth of treatment outweighed some reluctance on the part of the Navy to make the award to Hughes, which was not known as a Navy contractor and which was felt to be somewhat high in cost by the Bureau. 5 Pattern of Build-up and Stand-down of Scientific and Engineering Personnel Central to the interests of USEM is the question of whether scientific and engineering manpower on a particular project is fully and effectively utilized.
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From page 127... ...
It is probably not feasible to determine, after the fact, whether a given group of scientific and engineering personnel was effectively utilized on a particular task. A third problem has to do with the data on scientific and engineering manpower.
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From page 128... ...
The bulk of the scientific and engineering personnel were assigned to the first of these segments which in fact can be further broken down into numerous subtasks, some performed at St. Paul and some at San Diego.
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From page 129... ...
were five, and three. The total scientific and engineering personnel assigned by A.C.
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From page 130... ...
key personnel have had the longest association with the project since four of the six have been associated with the program in some form from its inception to the present time. It is interesting to note the previous jobs of scientific and engineering personnel in both government and industry teams as a measure of whether their experience on the 130
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From page 131... ...
scientific and engineering personnel working on the project. Although the Titan II Program Director reports to the Division Manager through the Director of Engineering, he seems to have no difficulty in getting full cooperation from the Divisions of the company.
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From page 132... ...
While A.C. feels that the better scientific and engineering personnel are not unduly concerned with security, but rather with the interest of their tasks, nevertheless the rapid pace of most modern systems makes follow-on business essential if the project office nucleus of scientific and engineering personnel is to be held together.
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From page 133... ...
5 Pattern of Build-Up and Stand-Down of Scientific and Engineering Personnel As in the case of NTDS, it is difficult to tell from plots of scientific and engineering personnel assigned to the Titan II project whether the numbers represent efficient or less-than-efficient utilization of such personnel. In the following table the approximate scientific and engineering manning levels for STL, Martin, and A.C.
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From page 134... ...
A.C. Over-all figures for scientific and engineering personnel assigned to Titan II by A.C.
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From page 135... ...
CONCLUSION TWO No general or acute shortage of engineers currently exists; it has generally been possible to obtain the scientific and engineering personnel needed to conduct civilian research and development, although at greatly increased dollar cost. Difficulties are being encountered nationally in connection with research and development management personnel and in a few special fields such as mathematics.
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From page 136... ...
It is important that any statistical examination of our technical manpower resources should include an appraisal of quality. It is imperative that assumptions for numerical projections of employment and graduation trends be clearly validated with respect to research and development, and that such projections are not obfuscated by undefined use of the terms "research and development." 136
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From page 137... ...
significant concentrations of scientific and engineering personnel, (2) substantial support for these personnel through government funding, and (3)
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From page 138... ...
Just as there is a tendency to refer to technical work as research, research and development, science, technology, engineering -- terms that are used interchangeably by technical and non-technical personnel alike in budgetary and policy discussions -- there is a similar tendency to lump all manner of technical skills into an ill-defined class of "scientists and engineers." (a) A systematic review of the utilization of scientific and engineering manpower in industry necessarily implies the recognition of a broad and complex spectrum of personnel, ranging from technicians, draftsmen, and engineering assistants to senior professional scientists and engineers.
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From page 139... ...
and l(b) above, will remain difficult without a viable classification of "scientific and engineering manpower." 3 ISOLATION FROM THE SOURCES OF MOTIVATION Of fundamental significance to the problems of utilization are a number of apparently unrelated management and organizational practices which, taken together, serve to erect a barrier between the scientific and engineering personnel and the corporations they serve.
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From page 140... ...
As integrated functions of the business, bringing together the skills and experience of the financial, technical, marketing, manufacturing, and personnel executives -- and continuing the process throughout the organization with the active participation especially of the top grade scientific and engineering personnel -- for the common purpose of solving the business problems of the corporation, meeting its objectives, and setting the course for the future, it remains a new concept in many corporations. Integration and policy formation are characteristically provided by the president personally or by the general managers of decentralized divisions.
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From page 141... ...
4 THE FINANCIAL FUNCTION An area that deserves considerably more attention than it has received, and which can fundamentally affect the utilization of many technical personnel, is the coordination of financial and technical planning. The issue is not the perennial mutual suspicion between the "long hairs" and the "bean counters," implicit in 3(b)
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From page 142... ...
The situation has its origin in the phenomenal growth of research and development, especially during the past ten years. The problems have become most pronounced in the aerospace and electronics industries, owing to considerations of national security.
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From page 143... ...
Although Charles Babbage in 1834 described an "analytical engine" to help men do their "figuring," the technology needed to make the computer he foresaw did not appear until the 1940's. Then the digital computer came into being, owing largely to pioneering ideas put forth by John von Neumann.1 Vannevar Bush, in "As We May • I am indebted to L
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From page 144... ...
Just how it relates deserves some comment here. Briefly, the progress made up to this time in evolving a cognitive partnership could not possibly have been made without the use of high-speed digital computers; for this purpose, computers are being used in certain ways that were not envisioned when they were designed; and in the future, the nonhuman part of the partnership may bear little resemblance to the computer we know today.
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From page 145... ...
instead of simply using it from time to time as a one-shot computer, can be explained with the help of an analogy. Solving a problem is like making a journey.
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From page 146... ...
E Clark, "On-Line ManComputer Communication." Proceedings Spring Joint Computer Conference.
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From page 147... ...
In designing a new hospital, for example, the architect might start by giving the system some relavant statistical data concerning operations in a number of existing hospitals, such as the number of patients served per day, the number of trips that doctors make between various parts of the hospital, and the flow of visitor traffic. On its screen, Coplanner can display the data in any of several forms, such as graphs, tables, or bar charts.
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From page 148... ...
Aids provided include computer-made movies that let you see "from the driver's seat" what it would be like to drive along roads you have designed. Recently this movie technique has received further development at the Bell Telephone Laboratories.
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From page 149... ...
As the above discussion makes clear, widespread use of machine-aided cognition may bring with it severe dislocation of workers, at all levels within the labor force. Such dislocation probably will be most severe during earlier stages of adoption of the new capabilities.
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From page 150... ...
who are pushing forward the technology of machine-aided cognition. The management of science and technology will also be greatly affected, if only to accommodate the impacts already discussed: those having to do with timesaving, the solution of previously unsolvable problems, the shifting patterns of work, and the dislocation of workers.
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From page 151... ...
Computer designers and system programmers are already very scarce, and the present output of our schools is still inadequate to meet the demands of industry, government, and educational institutions."5 Even after the coming decade, during which the demand for more computer specialists will be especially acute, the need to expand the supply of these specialists will continue to be felt throughout the foreseeable future simply because machine-aided cognition promises to invade almost every aspect of man's creative endeavors. Already students in all the natural sciences are beginning to find a familiarity with computer techniques as important as knowledge of mathematics and physics.
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From page 152... ...
C Daley, "An Experimental Time-Sharing System," Proceedings of the Spring Joint Computer Conference, Washington, D
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From page 153... ...
D Knowlton, "A Computer Technique for Producing Movies," Proceedings of the Spring Joint Computer Conference, Washington, D
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From page 154... ...
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