The Federal Aviation Administration’s Approach for Determining Future Air Traffic Controller Staffing Needs (2014) / Chapter Skim
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3 Evaluation of Staffing Standards
3 Evaluation of Staffing Standards
Pages 54-79
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From page 54... ...
FAA's staffing standards are not the sole determinant of staffing levels; they are one of several inputs into staffing ranges and FAA's hiring plan. The chapter reviews the formal staffing models and the process underlying the staffing standards.
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From page 55... ...
to Meet OPC Requirements on Basis of Assumed Controller Schedules Within Some Work–Fatigue Rules Daily Staffing Forecast Model Calculates the Daily Staffing Requirements of the PQC to meet the 90th Percentile Traffic Demand 90th Percentile Day Traffic Forecast Staffing Availability Factor Model Increases Controller Staffing to Account for Leave and 5-Day Work Week Adjust Controllers Numbers to Meet Watch Staffing Requirements Staffing Standard For Each Facility Staffing Plan Staffing Range (Hiring) FIGURE 3-1 Planning process leading to generation of staffing standards as inputs to the staffing range and hiring plan.
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From page 56... ...
Put another way, the models did not account for how the complexity of an air traffic situation affects "controlling capacity." Thus, the 1997 study committee recommended that FAA develop quantitative staffing models that considered air traffic complexity. Specifically, the committee recommended modeling the time controllers spend in executing the observable tasks associated with air traffic control (ATC)
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From page 57... ...
▪ Military - Low - Shortcut Subtask scheduling ▪ International - Medium - Reroute (based on consultations with - High - Hold operational experts) - Diversion 4 Model Output Current Use R-Side Task Load Computation R-side task workload PTT estimation • Sums times spent on R-side tasks during 15-minute period Hand-off, delay, (assumes task times are fixed and no multitasking)
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From page 58... ...
The committee that performed the study noted that a task-based approach is an improvement over earlier models 1 See http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/controller_staffing/ for the most recent air traffic controller workforce plan.
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From page 59... ...
The techniques for converting the model's total task load to PTT, such as fuzzy logic modeling, are similarly flawed -- the methods rely on operational experts for an understanding of total task load instead of identifying and measuring the time required for a controller to perform the D-side tasks. MITRE has since reported to this committee that its field and laboratory human-in-the-loop evaluations are designed to collect data on both the R- and D-side controller tasks and task times.
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From page 60... ...
The recommendation emphasized that validation should examine the underlying model itself, particularly assumptions that concern task performance by the controllers when they work alone and in teams, whether tasks are performed sequentially or concurrently, and how total task load affects the pace of task performance. This approach would justify the model's role as an independent assessment of controller staffing.
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From page 61... ...
A fundamental question that MITRE's evaluation is intended to answer is: "Do improved task times and task coverage from empirical observation and measure ment of controller task performance along with enhanced information on task workload thresholds allow for the removal of data-fitting elements like Fuzzy logic modeling from the model? " The charter of this committee was broader than that of the 2010 TRB committee.
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From page 62... ...
3 Rich McCormick, PowerPoint briefing to the committee, February 4, 2013. 4 The data are collected and maintained by the Air Traffic Organization in the Operations Network.
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From page 63... ...
As noted in Chapter 2, the model is intended to reflect the tasks believed to drive controller workload, which are largely focused on traffic separation and nominal communications. The controllers' other functions are not explicitly included in the model.
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From page 64... ...
to OPC requirements for the traffic situation. Shift Coverage Model Once the on-position staffing models provide an estimate of OPCs for each 15-minute time interval, the shift coverage model (SCM)
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From page 65... ...
Daily Staffing Forecast Model The daily staffing forecast model (DSFM) is a regression analysis designed to estimate the daily staffing requirements (DSRs)
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From page 66... ...
Traffic Forecasts and 90th Percentile Day Staffing Air traffic forecasts are necessary inputs in the preparation of air traffic controller staffing plans because the DSR values provided by the DSFM are scaled to match the 90th percentile day forecast (see Figure 3-1)
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From page 67... ...
Detailed reports documenting FAA's forecasting models and methodology either do not exist or could not be provided in response to the committee's requests during its deliberations. Forecasting air traffic operations is challenging.
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From page 68... ...
Operations FY 2000 FY 2012 Percent Change Tower operations Commercial, commuter, and taxi 24.3 20.7 -15 General aviation 27.8 16.3 -41 Totala 54.2 38.6 -29 TRACON total operations 51.9 37.8 -27 En route total operations 46.8 40.8 -13 a Includes military. Source: Generated by the committee; data from Air Traffic Activity Data System and TAF.
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From page 69... ...
. After they complete their training, air traffic controllers will typically serve until they become eligible for retirement and, most likely, for several years thereafter.
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From page 70... ...
In such cases, typically at small facilities, the staffing standard is manually adjusted to ensure that FAA's watch staffing levels are satisfied. Similarly, facilities having unique physical configurations, such as multiple operational towers, require special attention and adjustment to the staffing standard (FAA 2013a, Section 2.4, 34–36)
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From page 71... ...
According to the most recent controller workforce plan (FAA 2013c, 14) , the four inputs to each facility's staffing range are as follows: • The staffing standard -- the activity-based, schedule-constrained con troller staffing requirements described in the above standards process; • Service unit input (SUI)
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From page 72... ...
, an Excel-based application used to identify the field's estimate of staffing needs.15 Historically, SUI for the en route centers tended to mirror ALA's staffing standard for most cases; however, in those cases where SUI differed from the staffing standard, FAA was unable to provide documentation on how the SUI estimates were developed. Therefore, ATO has indicated that it intends to use an En Route Validation Tool (EVT)
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From page 73... ...
The algorithm is part of the centralized planning process at FAA headquarters that assumes some schedule for each facility generated from a basic set of work and fatigue rules. However, such a centralized schedule cannot work for all facilities -- as reported to the committee, one size does not fit all.16 Each facility may have specific local conditions, such as varying air traffic patterns throughout the day or heavy congestion on surrounding roads at certain times of the day.
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From page 74... ...
. Such engagement could involve facility management making a "bottom-up" business case when the two staffing range components disagree.17 The disconnect between the outputs of the modeling process and the operational perspective generated concerns that prompted ATO and the National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA)
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From page 75... ...
The staffing standards could be improved if the central planning process and facilities used the same scheduling tool, if facilities were able to adapt their schedule to local conditions, and if central planning was aware of those adaptations. Second, air traffic forecasts are necessary inputs for the ATC staffing standards process, yet over the past 12 years, the annual forecasts have been overly optimistic.
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From page 76... ...
The medium- and long-term projections of air traffic operations appear optimistic and unreliable and could provide inaccurate longterm hiring estimates. Persistent optimism in traffic forecasts brings about a tendency to hire more controllers than required, particularly for facilities requiring 3 years of training for new controllers to qualify.
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From page 77... ...
With regard to the task load model used for estimating the number of OPCs needed for en route centers, FAA and MITRE have yet to meet the 2010 study committee's recommendations. The current plan may address the modeling and validation recommendations in the 2010 study or identify the need for further observations and human-inthe-loop simulations to provide the necessary data.
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From page 78... ...
Most of the models underlying staffing standards generation appear to be well documented and consistently applied, but traffic forecasting and the process of calculating the staffing ranges were opaque and open to concerns that they were arbitrary or inconsistent. This is especially true of the determination of SUI.
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From page 79... ...
2010. Special Report 301: Air Traffic Controller Staffing in the En Route Domain: A Review of the Federal Aviation Administration's Task Load Model.
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