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From page 7... ... Workshop 1 Risks of Unconventional Shale Gas Development T he purpose of this workshop, held May 30-31, 2013, was to take a broad look at the risks, actualized or potential, associated with the development of shale gas resources.1 To identify the risks to be examined, the committee organizing the workshop considered both existing accounts of these risks and the public discourse and controversy about shale gas development. It also conducted its own elicitation of concerns about such risks by inviting input from a variety of individuals and groups that may have an interest in or a concern about shale gas development. Read the entire page →
From page 8... ... 8 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT public choices, will suggest governance models that hold promise for meeting the challenges of environmental protection in an era of declining regulatory capacity, and will direct attention of the energy policy community to the need to include fundamental social challenges -- not just technological ones -- in the development of policies and best practices." Small spoke briefly about the widespread presence of shale gas globally, noting that the U.S. Energy Information Administration now projects that by 2040, shale gas will account for about half of U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 9... ... WORKSHOP 1 9 Webler noted that there are multiple ways to identify risk concerns. Resources for the Future (RFF) Read the entire page →
From page 10... ... 10 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT of the five categories; consequences of hazardous events were the most frequently mentioned category. Webler summarized the 131 coded concerns as falling under 9 themes: 1. Read the entire page →
From page 11... ... WORKSHOP 1 11 Questions and Discussion Several issues arose in the discussion after the presentation. One concerned method that might be used to "take the pulse" of stake holders, including content analysis of local and national media, examination of social media, and the use of semistructured interviews to explore the ways that opponents and proponents of shale gas development think about the issues. Read the entire page →
From page 12... ... 12 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT topics: responsible operations, well construction and design, operational integrity, and potential impacts. Responsible operations. Read the entire page →
From page 13... ... WORKSHOP 1 13 open small cracks and enable production) , about 6 truckloads of chemical additives, and about 20-30 truckloads of stimulation equipment. Read the entire page →
From page 14... ... 14 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT regulators, and operating companies; that reasonable, locally specific regulations need to be combined with a responsible operations philosophy and effective risk management practices; and that transparency and reasonable regulations can enable natural gas to be economically developed in an environmentally responsible manner. Discussant Comments, Mark Zoback, Stanford University Zoback, who serves as Benjamin M Read the entire page →
From page 15... ... WORKSHOP 1 15 Discussant Comments, Meagan Mauter, Carnegie Mellon University Mauter, who serves on the faculty in Chemical Engineering and Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University and conducts research on resource efficiency in water and energy systems, cited Webler's presentation to support her point that the risks discussed in Nygaard's presentation are not the only ones that need to be characterized. She noted that the probability and consequences of a risk event occurring are not the only important dimensions of risk, citing the work of Slovic and colleagues (e.g., Fischhoff et al., 1978; Slovic, 1987) Read the entire page →
From page 16... ... 16 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT is needed. In those cases, operators need to find the right place for disposal. Read the entire page →
From page 17... ... WORKSHOP 1 17 made significant strides in public information. He cited FracFocus as making much detailed information available and said that in selecting fracturing chemicals, the company looks for those that do best at moderating environmental exposures while meeting the requirements for fracturing. Read the entire page →
From page 18... ... 18 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT added that proper well design and construction is the first line of defense for air emissons as well as for water contamination. Water retention pits at well sites. Read the entire page →
From page 19... ... WORKSHOP 1 19 studies suggest that methane in shale gas areas is a naturally occurring phenomenon (e.g., Molofsky et al., 2013) , other studies that look closely at the chemical composition of the methane (e.g., Osborn et al., 2011) Read the entire page →
From page 20... ... 20 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT micity risks and is not possible in all locations. Recycling is the desired solution, but high levels of barium and sulfates could shut down well operations. Read the entire page →
From page 21... ... WORKSHOP 1 21 brine might enter the annulus of improperly designed wells and be released into the surrounding formation, particularly in places where water and gas could flow from abandoned and improperly sealed gas wells into conventional water wells. There are areas of very high well density in southwestern Pennsylvania, which should be considered high-risk areas. Read the entire page →
From page 22... ... 22 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT key question is whether there is enough water at, for instance, the county level to support the multiple uses, including fracking. On the issue of fluids migrating along faults, Nicot said that well operators normally don't drill at geologic faults, which lowers the risk of fluid migration. Read the entire page →
From page 23... ... WORKSHOP 1 23 Other issues. In response to Zoback's suggestion that fracking will reduce the core pressure in gas wells so that fluids should be attracted downward into the wells rather than upward toward aquifers, Vengosh said that he had not seen a study that has tried to simulate that situation in real formations. Read the entire page →
From page 24... ... 24 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT Emissions of concern, Moore continued, include methane and ethane; benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes; hydrogen sulfide; ozone precursors; particulate matter; and silica. All these can have respiratory effects; benzene is a carcinogen. Read the entire page →
From page 25... ... WORKSHOP 1 25 nential decrease with distance of concentrations downwind of condensate tanks. The study could not determine whether these emissions were significantly higher than normal emissions sources in the area, except that a significant level of benzene was generated. Read the entire page →
From page 26... ... 26 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT benzene and methane correlate very highly in this region. However, there is a need to monitor other types of emissions as well, including emissions of additives such as acids, biocides, and solvents. Read the entire page →
From page 27... ... WORKSHOP 1 27 tion, Petron said that her measurements of methane releases in Colorado and Utah are for the whole of the natural gas system at the measured sites and acknowledged that not all the emissions are due to natural gas production (some may be from oil) Read the entire page →
From page 28... ... 28 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT much more will be known about air emissions than is known now. David McCabe of the Clean Air Task Force expressed the opinion that although measurement in collaboration with industry is very important, it is hard to assess the gross emitter problem in close collaboration with industry, so independent government and university measurements are also valuable. Read the entire page →
From page 29... ... WORKSHOP 1 29 noted that public health risks result from contact with stressors, including both direct and indirect effects through environmental and social processes. Stresses may arise during the short-term well development process, the production phase, and afterward. Read the entire page →
From page 30... ... 30 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT Water exposures. Adgate said that the same risk assessment approach can be used with water exposures, but assessments using this approach have not yet appeared in the literature, despite the high level of public concern about water. Read the entire page →
From page 31... ... WORKSHOP 1 31 ing, and after shale gas development continues to be needed for data on exposure and health and that more study is needed on chemical mixtures as stressors and on nonchemical stressors, as these stressors affect both workers and communities. In addition, public health exposure-prevention strategies should also be directed at minimizing exposures during completion activities. Read the entire page →
From page 32... ... 32 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT complaints have included anxiety and stress, nervous system problems including headaches and dizziness, and eye and throat irritation. The nurse practitioner's reports include her assessment, based on the interview and her experience, of what she thinks is the client's situation with respect to exposure-relevant symptoms. Read the entire page →
From page 33... ... WORKSHOP 1 33 the entire year showed similar wide fluctuations in readings and some periods of very high exposure. The data indicate that cloud cover, wind speeds, and other environmental conditions strongly affect air mixing and observed concentration levels. Read the entire page →
From page 34... ... 34 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT of shale development, Bredfeldt said that Texas is adding mobile monitoring stations at a cost of about $250,000 each, as well as canister samplers that cost $75,000 to $125,000. She noted the rapid development in the Barnett shale: when the TCEQ first started thinking about impacts on air quality, there were fewer than 1,000 Barnett gas wells; there are now over 15,000. Read the entire page →
From page 35... ... WORKSHOP 1 35 ing stuck valves. The commission has engaged in outreach and education for operators and developed new rules in the form of best management practices for well sites to avoid exposures. Read the entire page →
From page 36... ... 36 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT Quality of epidemiologic knowledge. In response to questioning about whether there are any strong epidemiologic studies being conducted about the public health effects of shale gas development, either generally or on children in particular, the panelists said that they did not know of any. Read the entire page →
From page 37... ... WORKSHOP 1 37 record for developing and implementing these technologies safely. She noted that the biggest problems are user error and that these do not occur when operators take care. Read the entire page →
From page 38... ... 38 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT These include spatial analysis (mapping and estimating development patterns) ; species-based modeling of population changes, behavioral responses, and habitat modeling; vulnerability assessment of habitats and of species distributions; and ecoregional assessment that considers multiple species and multiple drivers of change in larger geographic areas. Read the entire page →
From page 39... ... WORKSHOP 1 39 species, communities, or ecosystems to potential development is typically assessed by examining areas of overlap and optimally considers the sensitivity of the affected species; and (5) ecoregional assessments examine multiple natural resources and are potentially useful in identifying priority areas for development or conservation. Read the entire page →
From page 40... ... 40 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT vidual level can provide explanations and possibly provide early warning at the population level, establishing toxicity thresholds and then conducting field studies can expand understanding, and long-term water quality monitoring data are essential for estimating effects on aquatic ecology. Discussant Comments, Margaret Brittingham, Pennsylvania State University Brittingham is professor of wildlife resources and an extension wildlife specialist at the College of Agricultural Sciences at the Pennsylvania State University, with research interests that include the effects of habitat fragmentation on bird populations. Read the entire page →
From page 41... ... WORKSHOP 1 41 est boundary) due to pipelines occurred at a rate twice that of the loss of overall forest. Read the entire page →
From page 42... ... 42 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT Collection of baseline data. A participant asked what triggers the collection of baseline data on private lands, which are dominant in shale gas areas in the East. Read the entire page →
From page 43... ... WORKSHOP 1 43 which consider certain biological and physical conditions and change agents, can be used to identify areas needing protection in the development of oil and gas master leasing plans and in setting conditions for leases -- for example, by requiring phased development -- that consider various kinds of values. In the Utah case, these include scenic values. Read the entire page →
From page 44... ... 44 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT outlook for gas and oil. The high oil and gas resource case (which includes development of tight oil) Read the entire page →
From page 45... ... WORKSHOP 1 45 elasticity of aggregate energy demand with respect to natural gas price changes (elasticity less than 0.1, or a 1% increase in aggregate demand for a 10% decrease in price) , a low-to-moderate elasticity of natural gas demand with respect to natural gas prices in the residential/commercial (elasticity less than 0.3) Read the entire page →
From page 46... ... 46 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT Newell said that coal-based power production has decreased in the United States by 496 GWh between 2005, when serious production of shale gas started, and 2012. There have been accompanying increases in gas-fired power production of 470 GWh and in power production from renewable sources of 138 GWh, as well as a reduction in power from petroleum of 87 GWh. Read the entire page →
From page 47... ... WORKSHOP 1 47 of the international coal trade, Newell continued, so U.S. exports seem unlikely to have a major effect on global coal prices. Read the entire page →
From page 48... ... 48 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT are among the main reasons for the decline of U.S. carbon emissions of about 12 percent since 2005. Read the entire page →
From page 49... ... WORKSHOP 1 49 is starting to slow in China, which implies a decreasing need for new power plants -- unlike the United States, where there are many old power plants needing replacement, which makes gas-fueled power generation look more attractive. He believes that substitution for renewables and nuclear energy will mainly be policy driven rather than price driven. Read the entire page →
From page 50... ... 50 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT sent the range of uncertainty. He said that a number of ambient-air studies show emissions in several basins of over five percent, indicating that the EPA-based numbers may be considerably too low. Read the entire page →
From page 51... ... WORKSHOP 1 51 tor of the discussion, commented that she had heard no one suggest that shale gas was a solution to climate change. RISKS TO COMMUNITIES FROM SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT Presentation by Jeffrey Jacquet, South Dakota State University Jacquet is assistant professor in the Department of Sociology and Rural Studies at South Dakota State University. Read the entire page →
From page 52... ... 52 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT the effects of this depending on the initial population that can absorb the impact, the pace of development, and the availability of funds to mitigate the impacts. Inequality. Read the entire page →
From page 53... ... WORKSHOP 1 53 with that level of stress reported physical illness, compared with nine percent of people who were not stressed. Jacquet added that stress was found to be among the greatest impacts of gas drilling in Garfield County, Colorado. Read the entire page →
From page 54... ... 54 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT that the long-term effects on communities are generally poor. However, many of the shale gas sites in the 27 states are not in rural communities, and these places may be affected differently. Read the entire page →
From page 55... ... WORKSHOP 1 55 example, local hospitals have had to hire Spanish translators to deal with incoming workers of Mexican background. She noted that communities can respond better if they have a good idea of what they will face and what it will cost. Read the entire page →
From page 56... ... 56 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT ers who try to draw lessons from experience, even with other kinds of energy development, receive criticism that it does not generalize. Jacquet said that the research on "corrosive communities" by Freudenburg (e.g., Freudenburg and Jones, 1991) Read the entire page →
From page 57... ... WORKSHOP 1 57 wells, quadrupling the size of the town. Chevron created the Overthrust Industrial Association to help the community, rebuilt the police station, bought school buses, and spent many millions of dollars on community facilities through partnering with local officials. Read the entire page →
From page 58... ... 58 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT sought the people most knowledgeable about these risks, and 215 experts responded (30% of those asked) Read the entire page →
From page 59... ... WORKSHOP 1 59 tionships between the presence of wells and downstream concentrations of total suspended solids. Krupnick described in some detail the conceptual framework his group uses for thinking about types of risks. Read the entire page →
From page 60... ... 60 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT in large organizations and complex social and technological systems. He began his comments by saying that shale gas involves what some have called "destructive technology" in two senses. Read the entire page →
From page 61... ... WORKSHOP 1 61 each year. The gas industry is taxed at only 0.3 percent of its profits, which he said is probably close to a record low for any industry, even though this industry is one of the most profitable in the United States. Read the entire page →
From page 62... ... 62 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT in relation to gas exploration. He said that people in government and industry often tell him that trust will not be a major issue because their organizations have good relations with the public. Read the entire page →
From page 63... ... WORKSHOP 1 63 Krupnick's presentation. One participant suggested that Krupnick's idea of cumulative risk assessment leaves out the social part, including community impacts and environmental justice issues, and thought that a different term might be used. Read the entire page →
From page 64... ... 64 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT on the courts because they have lost trust, and they hope that a court ruling in their favor will restore trust. Climate change issues. Read the entire page →
From page 65... ... WORKSHOP 1 65 the risks, and (c) high-priority needs for further data and studies. Read the entire page →
From page 66... ... 66 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT Krupnick suggested that statistical studies of historical data are important for understanding health effects of shale gas development activities and for identifying health issues needing further study. In response to a question about whether there are biomarkers that could provide indicators of extended exposure, a participant said that the U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 67... ... WORKSHOP 1 67 for mitigation and remediation of ecological impacts, she said, but we don't know how to do it. Waste treatment. Read the entire page →
From page 68... ... 68 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT and how current levels compare to those prior to development. Outside Texas, the state of knowledge is poorer. Read the entire page →
From page 69... ... WORKSHOP 1 69 Unequal distribution of costs and benefits and community risk issues. Jacquet said that there is fairly good understanding of this issue, as well as of methods to address it, but there are governance issues. Read the entire page →
From page 70... ... 70 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT engage with stakeholders in discussion of the risks, as Understanding Risk recommended. He also commented favorably on the presentation from RFF, which emphasized cumulative and synergistic risks and said that in addition to considering particular kinds of risks, their interactions need to be kept in mind. Read the entire page →
From page 71... ... WORKSHOP 1 71 have not been as carefully examined include risks to public health, ecosystems, air quality, human communities, and global climate. Research questions that were posed by one or more workshop participants are summarized below under the topics of risks to public health, ecological risks, risks to air quality, risks to communities, implications for climate change, risks to water resources, and other risk issues. Read the entire page →
From page 72... ... 72 RISKS AND RISK GOVERNANCE IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT studies of: (1) the distribution of new wealth and the effects of different distributions on community processes, (2) Read the entire page →

From page 7...

... Workshop 1 Risks of Unconventional Shale Gas Development T he purpose of this workshop, held May 30-31, 2013, was to take a broad look at the risks, actualized or potential, associated with the development of shale gas resources.1 To identify the risks to be examined, the committee organizing the workshop considered both existing accounts of these risks and the public discourse and controversy about shale gas development. It also conducted its own elicitation of concerns about such risks by inviting input from a variety of individuals and groups that may have an interest in or a concern about shale gas development.