Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation (2015) / Chapter Skim
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to review an ABM developed for use by FDA; to comment on its strengths, weaknesses, and usefulness for examining various tobacco regulatory policies; and to provide recommendations on strategies to improve the model and for using ABM to inform decision making in the future. To address that request, the IOM created the Committee on the Assessment of Agent-Based Models to Inform Tobacco Product Regulation (see Box S-1 for the full committee statement of task)
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. It is important to note that the committee formally assessed only one ABM in this report, and although lessons from the development of that model may be applied to the development of future ABMs, this report's conclusions are not indicative of the strengths or limitations of other tobacco control ABMs or of tobacco control models using other modeling approaches.
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As described in Chapter 2, understanding the complicated environment in which tobacco products are used and sold is essential when attempting to model potential tobacco policies. This includes an understanding of the various tobacco products available and their addictive nature as well as tobacco use behaviors, including tobacco use initiation, progression, and cessation.
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. The main purpose of SnapDragon is to explore the effects of various tobacco policies and interventions, such as public education campaigns, on opinion and tobacco use within social networks.
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Structural models,3 to which policy makers have long looked to guide policy decision making, typically attempt to uncover behavioral relation 2 It is important to note that there are other features of tobacco control policy that are not directly related to initiation and cessation (e.g., tobacco companies responding to FDA regulatory changes in an attempt to undermine those changes) , so the modeling decision to focus on a specific policy question versus initiation or cessation needs to be discussed early in model conceptualization.
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Recommendation 3-1: When developing an agent-based model (or similar modeling approach) , the Center for Tobacco Products should consult with subject-matter experts to identify the plausible behaviors and focal processes at work from the beginning of the model develop ment process.
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It may be tempting to create ABMs that pull in as much empirical data and knowledge as possible in an attempt to create a highly realistic "laboratory" to explore policy questions. However, this approach is not usually the most productive, because available data and knowledge of human behavior are almost never adequate to achieve this.
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The challenge for the policy maker is to evaluate candidate policy outcomes and weigh the risks and benefits. Thus, to use these models effectively to guide policy decisions, the model user needs a rule for translating these uncertain predictions into a policy decision.
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Chapter 4 presents an evaluation framework for policy-relevant ABMs developed by the committee. Such an evaluation framework can help model developers improve their modeling efforts, help funders understand better how to use model results and how to guide future funding of modeling work, help policy makers understand how to translate model results into more effective policies and increase their trust in the analysis, and help modelers and scientists by suggesting new avenues for research, modeling, and data collection.
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If CTP chooses to adopt the framework outlined by the committee, it should be used as a guideline and not as a mechanical exercise or checklist, as different ABMs will require differing evaluation strategies based on their intended use, modeling approach, and other aspects of model development. Review of the Social Network Analysis for Policy on Directed Graph Networks Model (SnapDragon)
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The user status is determined by an underlying construct termed "opinion."8 Each individual carries an opinion about each tobacco product under consideration, which drives tobacco use behavior. SnapDragon explicitly models the time trajectory of individuals' opinions as a result of their interactions with other individuals, and the modeling choice is based on theory stemming from the field of opinion dynamics.
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Interventions that can potentially influence individuals' behaviors, such as tobacco control efforts, are modeled as modifying either the opinions of individuals about a certain tobacco product or the opinion thresholds that delimit possible user status.9 Review of SnapDragon In Chapter 5 the committee provides a detailed review of the SnapDragon model; the key findings and conclusions are described here. While S napDragon has been designed to evaluate a wide range of tobacco products, the committee focused on how the structure of the model can accommodate known facts about smoking behavior.
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In addition, the data required to inform the parameters in SnapDragon have not yet been identified, and the model has not yet reached the stage of model validation for broad application to tobacco control policy. While SnapDragon is a very flexible model that can be manipulated in various ways to reproduce certain observed facts about tobacco use behavior, it currently lacks sufficient modeling structure to be informative for policy.
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Data Collection and Model Development at the Center for Tobacco Products Chapter 6 provides a high-level overview of existing tobacco use data sources, identifies data gaps, and makes recommendations for the future implementation of ABM at CTP. Various types of existing data sources related to tobacco use can be used to inform and strengthen ABMs, but these sources do not contain all relevant agent attributes, behaviors, and social and spatial interactions related to tobacco use.
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To ensure that the processes of collecting the necessary data and identifying agent attributes based on those data are done successfully, it is crucial to address implementation issues. Funders for policy-relevant models require access to expertise if they are to issue effective funding opportunity announcements or contracts; to determine which modeling approaches are appropriate for the question at hand; to work with sponsored modeling teams throughout model development; to evaluate model inputs, processes, and outputs; and to appropriately interpret model results and translate them for decision makers.
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should ensure that it has staff with, or access to, the necessary expertise to inform CTP's research, contracting, and evaluation efforts and to trans late model results for various stakeholders. Although individual models are a useful tool for informing policy decisions, having a range of modeling techniques will offer a fuller picture of the policy questions confronted by CTP -- for example, by creating various models to approach the same question or process (for example, multiple ABMs or ABMs and aggregate models)
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Paper presented at first Committee Meeting of the Committee on Assessment of Agent-Based Models to Inform Tobacco Product Regulation, Washington, DC.
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Paper commissioned by the Committee on the Assessment of Agent Based Models to Inform Tobacco Product Regulation (see Appendix C)
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