Assessing the Use of Agent-Based Models for Tobacco Regulation (2015) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 19-30
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(See the section titled Computational Modeling of Tobacco Use on page 25 for more information on ABMs.) To that end, the Center for Tobacco Products (CTP)
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CTP noted that ABMs have been used to examine complex phenomena and may be particularly useful in providing insight into phenomena for which social interactions and population variation are important factors. CTP explained that ABMs are one tool that might allow CTP to learn more about the importance of individual-level factors that dictate tobacco use, as well as simulate potential use patterns in an evolving market (Fultz, 2014)
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are not discussed in detail, except when relevant to ABMs -- for example, using ABMs to inform aggregate models. Additionally, it was beyond the scope of this report to discuss when ABMs versus other modeling approaches are suitable to address specific types of questions and contexts.
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The committee received public submissions of materials for its consideration at the meetings and throughout the course of the study.2 A website was created to provide information to the public about the committee's work and to facilitate communication between the public and the com mittee.3 The committee commissioned three experts -- Lawrence Blume, Ross Hammond, and Alan Sanstad -- to write papers that identify varying views concerning ABM, the practice of and pitfalls associated with ABM, and lessons learned regarding the application of ABMs in health and energy policy. Given the multifaceted approaches to ABMs across disciplines, these papers enriched the committee's discussion and understanding of ABMs from other fields of study and informed the committee's conclusions.
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Simulation models have been used by FDA to help address the critical health and social concerns of the present smoking epidemic. Overview of FDA's Authority Over Tobacco Products Until 2009, tobacco products were exempt from regulation under the nation's federal health and safety laws.
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The Tobacco Control Act gives FDA the authority to regulate cigarettes, cigarette tobacco, roll-your-own tobacco, and smokeless tobacco. Additional tobacco products, such as e-cigarettes and cigars, are being considered through a deeming proposal.4 The Tobacco Control Act gives FDA the authority, through rule making, to adopt tobacco product standards appropriate for the protection of public health.
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Researchers and policy makers have used existing tobacco control models extensively to inform policy decisions and those models continue to be a useful and important tool. This report is meant to grow on the large body of work on tobacco control modeling by exploring how ABMs might be a helpful tool to add to the existing modeling toolkit (see the section titled Why Use Agent-Based Models to Explore Tobacco Use?
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. For exam le, to model the natural history p of lung cancer, six independent microsimulation models were developed as part of C ISNET (McMahon et al., 2012)
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Report Contents To address its statement of task, the committee reviews and discusses the complex environment in which tobacco control policies are created and how ABMs could be a useful tool to assist in tobacco control policy deci 6 See Appendix A for a comprehensive discussion on using ABMs to inform policy.
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2014. Enhancing youth tobacco surveillance to inform tobacco product regulation: Findings from the 2012 National Youth Tobacco Survey.
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2014. Multiple tobacco product use among adults in the United States: Cigarettes, cigars, electronic cigarettes, hookah, smokeless tobacco, and snus.
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2014. Comparing benefits from many possible computed tomography lung cancer screening programs: Extrapolating from the national lung screening trial using comparative modeling.
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