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From page 263... ... See also Evaluation biology of, 50–51 framework for ABMs individual differences in risk of, 37 goals for the Institute of Medicine modeling of, 46, 122, 131, 153 review of, 1–2, 2b, 20b, 21, 27–28 progression of smoking behaviors to, 48 grammar for, 89–90t Agent-based models inputs, 66–68, 143, 173 advantages, 162–164 investigating surprising results of, 185 applications, 2–3, 20, 25, 161, 164–166, microsimulations and, 6–7, 77–79 199–200, 217–218 misperceptions about, 188 best practices in development of, 9, 98, model testing, 92f, 97, 111. See also 180–187 Validation issues in modeling case examples, 101–105, 168–172, for policy design and evaluation, 27, 199–202, 229–237 87–88, 166–168, 169, 207–209 Center for Tobacco Products objectives potential agent types in, 152–153 for, xvi, 3–4, 25–26 purpose of, xvi, 25, 161, 162–163, 205 communicating results from, 9–10, 90f, rationale for use of, 4–5, 52–55 92f, 99–100, 105, 106, 111, 113, recommendations for development of, 6, 186–187 8, 10, 72, 80, 99–100 complex adaptive systems and, 195, sensitivity analysis in, 6, 8, 71, 83, 92f, 196, 198–199, 205 179t, 184–185, 227–228, 241 data needs, 15, 149–153, 154 263 Read the entire page →
From page 264... ... See also Validation issues specification of agent behavior in, 196, in modeling 199 Campaign Tobacco Free Kids, 35–36 Computable general equilibrium, 219–220 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Computational models, 1, 19, 25, 73–75. Modeling Network, xv, 26b, 155–156 See also Agent-based models CANSAVE, 26b Conceptual frameworks, 46 Center for Tobacco Products for model evaluation, 92f, 112 data collection for ABM, 15, 154–155 for model formation, 95, 97, 105 goals for ABM development, xiv, 3–4, in SnapDragon model, 124 25–26 for tobacco behavior, 46–47 mission, 3, 38 Conclusions on objectives for using ABM, 1–2, 2b, ABM and microsimulation, 7, 78–79 19–20, 27–28 current data collection, 15, 154 recommendations for, 6, 8, 10, 15, 16, human behavior inputs in ABMs, 6, 72, 80, 99–100, 139, 154, 155 71–72 use of modeling by, xv–xvi, 1–2, 20, 24 low- and high-dimensional modeling, 8, 79 Read the entire page →
From page 265... ... See also Deffuant–Weisbuch model, 127–128. See Deeming of tobacco products; also Bounded confidence opinion Smokeless tobacco products dynamics model Ecological momentary sampling and Descriptive output validation, 205 assessment, 151, 170 Design document, 88, 95 Ecological perspective, 47–48, 47f Design of ABMs Economic implications of tobacco use, 23, agent perspective in, 180 24, 34f, 45 assumptions in, 181–182, 188 Economic models of tobacco use behaviors, best practices, 173, 179–187 47 case examples, 100–105 Emergent behaviors, 130, 135, 196, 200, computer coding, 182–183 206, 209 conceptual stage, 93, 110, 179–180 Energy Information Administration, 220, documentation, 184 224–225 environmental specifications, 177–178 Energy modeling evaluation of, 87–88. Read the entire page →
From page 266... ... See High-dimensional modeling, 7–8, 79–80 also Interdisciplinary modeling team; Homophily, 70, 101, 107 Modeling, generally; Subject-matter Human resources, 15–16, 72–73, 93, experts 109, 155. See also Interdisciplinary modeling team; Subject-matter experts F Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, 3, 24, 32–35, 38, 42, I 44, 148 Identification, 69–70, 207–209 main provisions, 39b Incentives for behavior, 5–6 Federal agencies in tobacco regulation, Indian Country, 45 43–44. Read the entire page →
From page 267... ... See models; Microsimulation also Agent-based models; Micro-level Microsimulation, 6–7, 26b, 66, 77–79 models; Microsimulation MIDAS. See Models of Infectious Disease Infectious disease modeling, 169–170, Agent Study 196–199, 201–202, 205, 209–210 Misperceptions about ABMs, 188 Initiation of tobacco use Model suitability, 9–10, 98–99 age at initiation, 132, 144 in SnapDragon evaluation, 129–133 data sources, 144 Modeling, generally determinants of, 48–50 applications of, xv, 1, 27 e-cigarettes, 23 comparative features, 63–64 individual differences in, 51 current and past approaches to in modeling efforts to date, 26b, 52–53 tobacco control, xv–xvi, 26b, 52–53 motivation of individuals for, 37 expertise for, 15–16, 72–73, 155 patterns and trends, 3, 48, 132 individual versus aggregate level progression to regular use, 48 specification, 76–77 rationale for agent-based models of, limitations of, 8, 82 52–54 quantifying uncertainty in, 8, 83 Input validation, 205, 206 tobacco control, xv, 25, 26b Interdisciplinary modeling team Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study, information needs of, 93 155–156, 165, 169–170, 187 knowledge broker, 95, 105 Morbidity, tobacco use, 3, 23 policy development and, 99, 106 Mortality, tobacco use, 3, 23 resources for, 9, 98 Multiple equilibria, 74–75 role of, in model development, 17, 97, 157 SimAmph, 103–105 Ising spin models, 125 N National Energy Modeling System, 220–221, 222f K National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) Read the entire page →
From page 268... ... See also Policy resistance Public health standard for review of tobacco case example of ABM development for, products, 24 101–103, 168–172 challenge of anticipating effects of, 64–65 Q challenges using ABMs for, 207–209 Qualitative data, 82, 133–134, 143, 151 choice of model for, 211–212 Quantitative aggregated data, 80–82, 133, computational modeling for, 1, 19, 25, 134–135, 143, 152 53, 73–75 data needs, 14–15 data on policy interaction effects, R 148–149 evaluating effects of, 65–66 Race, 37, 51, 134, 148, 152, 162 evaluation of ABM effectiveness in, 1–2, Randomized controlled trials, 65–66 3–4, 10, 19, 21, 99, 112–113 "Real Cost, The," 41 historical use of tobacco modeling for, Recommendations on 26b ABM development, 6, 72 identifying social interaction effects for, Center for Tobacco Products model 68–71 development, 16, 155 indirect policy models, 168, 172 data collection, 15, 154 Read the entire page →
From page 269... ... See Social Network Analysis Social psychology, 125 for Policy on Directed Graph Social space in ABM, 89t Networks Socioeconomic status, 37, 51, 134, 152, 162 Social cognitive theory, 46 Sociophysics, 125 Social contagion, 70, 131 State and local governments Social context of tobacco use as agents in ABMs, 152 cessation and, 51 regulatory authority of, 42, 44–45 data sources, 144–147, 149–150 revenue from tobacco for, 36–37 ecological perspective, 47–48, 47f Structural models, 5–6, 66–68, 72, endogenous effects, 69–70, 81 203–205, 207–208 rationale for ABMs to study, 4–5, defined, 5, 66–67, 73 53–54, 164 types of, 73–78 significance of, among youth, 49–50 Stylized facts, 133–134, 135, 143, 151 tobacco use landscape, 32–38 Read the entire page →
From page 270... ... See Family Smoking Tobacco Use Supplement to Current Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Population Survey, 144 Tobacco distribution and sales Tolerance, nicotine, 50 data sources, 148 TPSAC. See Tobacco Products Scientific minimum purchase age requirements, xv, Advisory Committee 41–42, 44 Transparency, 186 regulatory authority, 3, 41, 44 retailer density, 35, 44, 170–171 See also Tobacco industry U Tobacco industry as agents in ABMs, 53, 152 Uncertainty challenges to tobacco regulation from, communication of, 8, 27, 82–83, 35, 36 186–187 data collection by, 149 fundamental model, 238–239 marketing, 3, 40–41 managing and communicating, 186–187 modeling policy effect on behavior of, 71 quantification of, 8, 82–83, 94, 228, 238 See also Tobacco distribution and sales; recommendation for consideration of, 8, Tobacco manufacture 83 Read the entire page →
From page 271... ... Food and Drug Administration challenges for, in tobacco regulation, Y 34–36 Youth limits to authority of, 42 determinants of tobacco initiation in, recommendations for, 8, 16, 83, 156 48–50 tobacco regulation authority, 3, 19, e-cigarette use, 23 23–24, 38–42 parental influences, 49, 147 use of models by, xv–xvi, 1, 14–16, progression of smoking behaviors, 19–20, 154–156 48–49 projected mortality among tobacco users, 3, 23 V restrictions on advertising to, 40 Validation issues in modeling, 123–124, social context of tobacco use among, 130–133, 205–207, 219, 228–229 49–50 in model evaluation, 92f, 94, 97 tobacco initiation rates, 3, 22–23 in SnapDragon model, 126, 135, 136 tobacco prevention campaigns, 41 Verification, 94, 238 tobacco use data sources, 144–147 in case studies, 104 in SnapDragon Model, 136 Read the entire page →

From page 263...

... See also Evaluation biology of, 50–51 framework for ABMs individual differences in risk of, 37 goals for the Institute of Medicine modeling of, 46, 122, 131, 153 review of, 1–2, 2b, 20b, 21, 27–28 progression of smoking behaviors to, 48 grammar for, 89–90t Agent-based models inputs, 66–68, 143, 173 advantages, 162–164 investigating surprising results of, 185 applications, 2–3, 20, 25, 161, 164–166, microsimulations and, 6–7, 77–79 199–200, 217–218 misperceptions about, 188 best practices in development of, 9, 98, model testing, 92f, 97, 111. See also 180–187 Validation issues in modeling case examples, 101–105, 168–172, for policy design and evaluation, 27, 199–202, 229–237 87–88, 166–168, 169, 207–209 Center for Tobacco Products objectives potential agent types in, 152–153 for, xvi, 3–4, 25–26 purpose of, xvi, 25, 161, 162–163, 205 communicating results from, 9–10, 90f, rationale for use of, 4–5, 52–55 92f, 99–100, 105, 106, 111, 113, recommendations for development of, 6, 186–187 8, 10, 72, 80, 99–100 complex adaptive systems and, 195, sensitivity analysis in, 6, 8, 71, 83, 92f, 196, 198–199, 205 179t, 184–185, 227–228, 241 data needs, 15, 149–153, 154 263

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From page 264...

... See also Validation issues specification of agent behavior in, 196, in modeling 199 Campaign Tobacco Free Kids, 35–36 Computable general equilibrium, 219–220 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Computational models, 1, 19, 25, 73–75. Modeling Network, xv, 26b, 155–156 See also Agent-based models CANSAVE, 26b Conceptual frameworks, 46 Center for Tobacco Products for model evaluation, 92f, 112 data collection for ABM, 15, 154–155 for model formation, 95, 97, 105 goals for ABM development, xiv, 3–4, in SnapDragon model, 124 25–26 for tobacco behavior, 46–47 mission, 3, 38 Conclusions on objectives for using ABM, 1–2, 2b, ABM and microsimulation, 7, 78–79 19–20, 27–28 current data collection, 15, 154 recommendations for, 6, 8, 10, 15, 16, human behavior inputs in ABMs, 6, 72, 80, 99–100, 139, 154, 155 71–72 use of modeling by, xv–xvi, 1–2, 20, 24 low- and high-dimensional modeling, 8, 79

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From page 265...

... See also Deffuant–Weisbuch model, 127–128. See Deeming of tobacco products; also Bounded confidence opinion Smokeless tobacco products dynamics model Ecological momentary sampling and Descriptive output validation, 205 assessment, 151, 170 Design document, 88, 95 Ecological perspective, 47–48, 47f Design of ABMs Economic implications of tobacco use, 23, agent perspective in, 180 24, 34f, 45 assumptions in, 181–182, 188 Economic models of tobacco use behaviors, best practices, 173, 179–187 47 case examples, 100–105 Emergent behaviors, 130, 135, 196, 200, computer coding, 182–183 206, 209 conceptual stage, 93, 110, 179–180 Energy Information Administration, 220, documentation, 184 224–225 environmental specifications, 177–178 Energy modeling evaluation of, 87–88.

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From page 266...

... See High-dimensional modeling, 7–8, 79–80 also Interdisciplinary modeling team; Homophily, 70, 101, 107 Modeling, generally; Subject-matter Human resources, 15–16, 72–73, 93, experts 109, 155. See also Interdisciplinary modeling team; Subject-matter experts F Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, 3, 24, 32–35, 38, 42, I 44, 148 Identification, 69–70, 207–209 main provisions, 39b Incentives for behavior, 5–6 Federal agencies in tobacco regulation, Indian Country, 45 43–44.

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From page 267...

... See models; Microsimulation also Agent-based models; Micro-level Microsimulation, 6–7, 26b, 66, 77–79 models; Microsimulation MIDAS. See Models of Infectious Disease Infectious disease modeling, 169–170, Agent Study 196–199, 201–202, 205, 209–210 Misperceptions about ABMs, 188 Initiation of tobacco use Model suitability, 9–10, 98–99 age at initiation, 132, 144 in SnapDragon evaluation, 129–133 data sources, 144 Modeling, generally determinants of, 48–50 applications of, xv, 1, 27 e-cigarettes, 23 comparative features, 63–64 individual differences in, 51 current and past approaches to in modeling efforts to date, 26b, 52–53 tobacco control, xv–xvi, 26b, 52–53 motivation of individuals for, 37 expertise for, 15–16, 72–73, 155 patterns and trends, 3, 48, 132 individual versus aggregate level progression to regular use, 48 specification, 76–77 rationale for agent-based models of, limitations of, 8, 82 52–54 quantifying uncertainty in, 8, 83 Input validation, 205, 206 tobacco control, xv, 25, 26b Interdisciplinary modeling team Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study, information needs of, 93 155–156, 165, 169–170, 187 knowledge broker, 95, 105 Morbidity, tobacco use, 3, 23 policy development and, 99, 106 Mortality, tobacco use, 3, 23 resources for, 9, 98 Multiple equilibria, 74–75 role of, in model development, 17, 97, 157 SimAmph, 103–105 Ising spin models, 125 N National Energy Modeling System, 220–221, 222f K National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health)

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From page 268...

... See also Policy resistance Public health standard for review of tobacco case example of ABM development for, products, 24 101–103, 168–172 challenge of anticipating effects of, 64–65 Q challenges using ABMs for, 207–209 Qualitative data, 82, 133–134, 143, 151 choice of model for, 211–212 Quantitative aggregated data, 80–82, 133, computational modeling for, 1, 19, 25, 134–135, 143, 152 53, 73–75 data needs, 14–15 data on policy interaction effects, R 148–149 evaluating effects of, 65–66 Race, 37, 51, 134, 148, 152, 162 evaluation of ABM effectiveness in, 1–2, Randomized controlled trials, 65–66 3–4, 10, 19, 21, 99, 112–113 "Real Cost, The," 41 historical use of tobacco modeling for, Recommendations on 26b ABM development, 6, 72 identifying social interaction effects for, Center for Tobacco Products model 68–71 development, 16, 155 indirect policy models, 168, 172 data collection, 15, 154

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From page 269...

... See Social Network Analysis Social psychology, 125 for Policy on Directed Graph Social space in ABM, 89t Networks Socioeconomic status, 37, 51, 134, 152, 162 Social cognitive theory, 46 Sociophysics, 125 Social contagion, 70, 131 State and local governments Social context of tobacco use as agents in ABMs, 152 cessation and, 51 regulatory authority of, 42, 44–45 data sources, 144–147, 149–150 revenue from tobacco for, 36–37 ecological perspective, 47–48, 47f Structural models, 5–6, 66–68, 72, endogenous effects, 69–70, 81 203–205, 207–208 rationale for ABMs to study, 4–5, defined, 5, 66–67, 73 53–54, 164 types of, 73–78 significance of, among youth, 49–50 Stylized facts, 133–134, 135, 143, 151 tobacco use landscape, 32–38

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From page 270...

... See Family Smoking Tobacco Use Supplement to Current Prevention and Tobacco Control Act Population Survey, 144 Tobacco distribution and sales Tolerance, nicotine, 50 data sources, 148 TPSAC. See Tobacco Products Scientific minimum purchase age requirements, xv, Advisory Committee 41–42, 44 Transparency, 186 regulatory authority, 3, 41, 44 retailer density, 35, 44, 170–171 See also Tobacco industry U Tobacco industry as agents in ABMs, 53, 152 Uncertainty challenges to tobacco regulation from, communication of, 8, 27, 82–83, 35, 36 186–187 data collection by, 149 fundamental model, 238–239 marketing, 3, 40–41 managing and communicating, 186–187 modeling policy effect on behavior of, 71 quantification of, 8, 82–83, 94, 228, 238 See also Tobacco distribution and sales; recommendation for consideration of, 8, Tobacco manufacture 83

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From page 271...

... Food and Drug Administration challenges for, in tobacco regulation, Y 34–36 Youth limits to authority of, 42 determinants of tobacco initiation in, recommendations for, 8, 16, 83, 156 48–50 tobacco regulation authority, 3, 19, e-cigarette use, 23 23–24, 38–42 parental influences, 49, 147 use of models by, xv–xvi, 1, 14–16, progression of smoking behaviors, 19–20, 154–156 48–49 projected mortality among tobacco users, 3, 23 V restrictions on advertising to, 40 Validation issues in modeling, 123–124, social context of tobacco use among, 130–133, 205–207, 219, 228–229 49–50 in model evaluation, 92f, 94, 97 tobacco initiation rates, 3, 22–23 in SnapDragon model, 126, 135, 136 tobacco prevention campaigns, 41 Verification, 94, 238 tobacco use data sources, 144–147 in case studies, 104 in SnapDragon Model, 136

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Index Pages 263-272

Index
Pages 263-272