Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty A Proceedings (1991) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
13. Water Resources Forecasting
13. Water Resources Forecasting
Pages 255-274
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 255... ...
National Weather Service Silver Spring, Maryland Thomas Carlyle, Scots essayist and historian, called economics the"dismal science." A problem with economics is that ultimately all accounts must balance there's no free lunch. This rule holds in physics, too.
|
From page 256... ...
Both longrange and short-range decisions are sensitive to the hydrological effects of climate variability and change. Water management decisions depend on water resources forecasts, and these forecasts must take into account the effects of climate variability and change.
|
From page 257... ...
Research is also needed to improve models for the significant fraction of the United States that lies between gaging stations and for which available data are inadequate to support model calibration. SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR WATER RESOURCES FORECASTING The science of real-time hydrologic forecasting has reached the point where significant advances can be made to provide improved information for water managers.
|
From page 258... ...
The Calibration System performs tasks needed to process historical hydrometeorological data and to estimate model parameters for a specific basin. In model calibration, simulated streamflow is statistically and visually compared to the observed streamflow.
|
From page 259... ...
259 zo U]
|
From page 260... ...
. The NWS provides weather and river warning services that have some utility for water management planning and operations; however, the NWS's existing services are structured primarily for flood warning and have limited ability to provide longer-term water supply forecasts.
|
From page 261... ...
261 en an\ In _ _ ~1' MO~WY3~1~ t · · ~ T ., ~ ll I!
|
From page 262... ...
These are issued monthly and are based on regression relationships between the water content of snow measurements and future runoff volumes. NWS Modernization Three major NOAA technological improvement programs are underway as part of a strategy to modernize and restructure the National Weather Service.
|
From page 263... ...
Water Resources Forecasting ~ ~ ~1 o LIZ C]
|
From page 264... ...
Propossls 10 solve lhe watcr supply crlsls for tbe polkically divided region bad emphasized cons1ruction projects ~uch ss building as many as 16 major dsms and reservoirs) w~h higb cos1s sod li1Ue public support By 1he esrly l9SOs,11 wss clear 1hs1 local ~stcr manshers wore sold on 1he soundness of WARFS technology and lls cost-effec1ivenes~ In 1983, s series of con1rac1S ~crc d~ncd by 1hc rcderal govcrnmcn1, 1hc s1atc of ~ryland, and thc Commonweslth of Vlrglnla.
|
From page 265... ...
The line labeled "historical is based on an analysis of the historical streamflow for June. The line labeled "WARFS forecasts is based on ESP analysis that takes into account the extremely dry soil moisture conditions that existed on June 1, 1988.
|
From page 266... ...
1 :: o _ ;' t i _ ;' . i6 68 70 r2 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 YEAR June 1 ,1 988 Conditlons FIGURE 13.4 Comparison of 1988 soil moisture in the Lake Lanier (Georgia)
|
From page 267... ...
267 o, ~f ~ In / , / / / Us ~ ; ~ to/, , 1 1, 1 1 1 1 m~ o o o o o ~ o (feel else lo c,ooo`)
|
From page 268... ...
ad!
|
From page 269... ...
269 o a: ~ D ,~ fig I m ME ~r~ 1 I_ St,_ ~ ~ /~ ~0 o o D o · _ Ct o C ~f _~ ~3 At
|
From page 271... ...
If model parameters could be related to physical characteristics and climate, multiple basins could be calibrated simultaneously, and the effects of local measurement biases might be reduced. GEWEX Continental-Scale International Project Because water is an important factor in the redistribution of energy from the equator toward the poles and in the optical properties of the atmosphere that control the local energy balance, it is necessary to understand better the hydrologic cycle to improve the estimates of how increasing greenhouse gas levels will affect the climate.
|
From page 272... ...
Using relatively simple water and energy balance models of the atmosphere, the orographic component of precipitation can be estimated. The output from orographic precipitation models can be combined with limited surface measurements of precipitation at low elevations and with snow water content at higher elevations to make improved estimates of the spatial distribution of precipitation and snow water content.
|
From page 273... ...
Data Base Improvements Improvements are needed in both historical and operational data systems to make hydrologic analyses more efficient and more accurate. Historical data bases for all of the hydrometeorological information needed for WARES are not economically accessible, and some critical information is available only in printed publications (such as historical observation times of daily precipitation data, which change from time to time at many stations)
|
From page 274... ...
Also, it is essential to keep existing hydrometeorological data systems operating, even if there already is an extensive historical record. Continuing to operate existing data systems is necessary so that recent data may be used in ESP and so that model parameters (which are also a function of climate)
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.