Ocean-Atmosphere Observations Supporting Short-Term Climate Predictions (1994) / Chapter Skim
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'OVERVIEW AND PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS'
'OVERVIEW AND PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS'
Pages 15-24
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From page 16... ...
Appropriate space and time scales should be taken into account as well as the development of data sets required for the use of current and anticipated prediction models.
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From page 17... ...
As the 1985 Scientific Plan states, "The TOGA Programme will require an internationally coordinated measurement programme to provide a consistent ten year record of the basic geophysical variables describing the variability of the coupled tropical ocean and global atmosphere system." The underlying rationale for this duration has been straightforward: the most significant short-term variations of the physical climate [El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events]
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From page 18... ...
have some attractive sampling and cost attributes but also have unavoidable errors of serious magnitude (hull and intake plumbing near-field effects for VOSs, volcano dust interferences and internal radiometer calibration difficulties for satellites)
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From page 19... ...
surface Southern Oscillation and 30- to 60 stations, volunteer observing ships day oscillation, El Nino (VOSs) , drifting and moored buoys Surface winds/wind stress WWW island and coastal stations, Surface fluxes of momentum, monsoon c VOSs, moored buoys, satellite remote variability, El Nino, wind ~ sensing anomalies for diagnosing the Southern Oscillation and the 30- ~ to 60-day oscillation ~ Precipitation CLIMAT rain gauge network, satellite Rainfall pattern ~ remote sensing ~ Global sea-surface VOSs, drifting and moored buoys, Surface temperature pattern ~ temperature satellite remote sensing ~ ~ Source: ITPO (1992)
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From page 20... ...
, ocean-surface topography, surface l"'o ~ drifting thermistor chains, moored geostrophic currents, response to temperature sensors wind stress and barometric pressure Tropical ocean subsurface XBTs, drifting thermistor chains, Variability of ocean heat storage ~ temperature moored temperature sensors ~ ~ :::! Tropical ocean salinity Conductivity-temperature-depth probes, Variability of ocean density, c surface sampling, expendable stratification, and upwelling ~ conductivity-temperature-depth probes Subsurface and near- Drifters, moored current meters, Surface and subsurface ocean surface current velocity current profilers currents Tropical sea-surface Drifting and moored buoys, VOSs, Anomalous ocean circulation events, temperature satellite remote sensing upwelling Source: ITPO (1992)
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From page 21... ...
Based on the predictive skill demonstrated to date, and in response to the obvious social and economic needs for useful predictions of climate fluctuations, the International TOGA Scientific Steering Group (SSG) has endorsed the development of an International Research Institute for Climate Prediction.
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From page 22... ...
The single most critical effort to be sustained, because of its late establishment and because of the central importance in TOGA predictions of the fields it measures (tropical wind stress, SST, upper-ocean thermal structure) , is the full TOGA TAO array of approximately 70 moorings.
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From page 23... ...
It is quite possible that a data series could become marginal for use in the short-term climate predictions of interest here but still retain high value for climate research on other time scales or in other areas (e.g., the deep ocean, which is generally of second-order importance for TOGA-like climate questions)
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From page 24... ...
Its mix of systematic observations of all kinds, of theoretical dynamical ideas and numerical modeling, and even of trial predictions really sets an excellent example of how a scientific study and evolving monitoring effort can interplay to produce guidelines for a rational design of a monitoring effort of the kind that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration can sustain" (H.
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