The Greening of Industrial Ecosystems (1994) / Chapter Skim
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Energy and Industrial Ecology
Energy and Industrial Ecology
Pages 38-60
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From page 38... ...
Several factors must be considered in assessing the future role of fossil fuels in meeting future energy needs. These include the dissipative material flows from fossil fuel use into the biosphere, the benefits and costs of energy abundance, trends in energy productivity, future energy technology and utilization trends, and the magnitude of fossil fuel reserves and resources relative to the rates of consumption for oil, natural gas, and coal.
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From page 39... ...
Remaining fossil fuel resources including petroleum liquids and natural gas could meet the major share of global energy needs at costs competitive with nonfossil-fuel options during the likely transition period to a sustainable global energy system. This would be the expected outcome of continuing advances in fossil fuel extraction, conversion, transport, and end-use technologies that are enhanced by the large price and technology elasticities of energy supply and demand, and by the efficiency gains inherent in the ongoing global trend of electrification of stationary energy uses.
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From page 40... ...
This heightens the urgency of creating effective mechanisms for technical and financial assistance for the part of the world whose primary energy consumption in 2020 is expected to exceed by a considerable margin the combined consumption of North America, Western Europe, and the Pacific Rim. DISSIPATIVE MATERIALS FLOWS FROM FOSSIL FUEL USE Of all the dissipative materials flows into the biosphere that stem from human activities, carbon dioxide (CO2)
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From page 41... ...
Global data on VOCs emissions from fossil fuel use seem to be unavailable. However, the World Energy Council recently reported 1990 global emissions of 64 million metric tons of sulfur, or 141 million short tons of SOX as sulfur dioxide, and 24 million metric tons of nitrogen, or 87 million short tons of NOX as nitrogen dioxide (Commission on Energy for Tomorrow's World, 19921.
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From page 42... ...
is believed to be of fossil fuel origin (World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Program, 19923. However, other studies give a range of 440 to 640 million metric tons of annual anthropogenic methane emissions, with fossil fuels responsible for only 12 to 16 percent of the total (Alliance to Save Energy et al., 19921.
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From page 43... ...
The large increases in life expectancy and declines in infant mortality and the general improvements in public health in the industrialized world followed the virtual elimination of hunger by energy-intensive agriculture and the creation of widely distributed wealth as a consequence of the explosive rise in labor and capital productivity.3 Naturally, this dramatic change in the human condition over a period of less than 200 years is also a result of rapid advances in every field of science and technology, but growing energy abundance clearly played the major role. In addition to the general contribution of primary energy and electricity consumption to such quantitative measures of economic well-being as gross domestic product per capita, the social benefits of energy use have been equally important.
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From page 44... ...
, primary energy consumption per unit of GDP was four times that of the members of OECD other than the United States and Canada before the breakup of the Soviet Bloc. Primary energy consumption per capita in the United States is also roughly double that of Western Europe and Japan.
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From page 45... ...
However, electricity consumption is likely to continue to be closely linked to economic growth (Linden, 19881. Obviously, if prices escalate more sharply than expected because demand for OPEC oil production will increase to 40 million barrels per day by 2010 or even sooner, or because steep carbon taxes are imposed on fossil fuel use, the growth of primary energy demand relative to GDP may be less or might again turn negative as it did as a result of the oil price shocks of 1973/74 and 1978/79.
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From page 46... ...
Primary energy consumption (excluding fuel wood and other primitive renewable energy forms) per constant dollar gross national product (GNP)
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From page 47... ...
These views about energy abundance may have been justified when the threat of imminent depletion of the most desirable fossil fuels, namely, oil and natural gas seemed probable. The issue of intergenerational fairness was raised in this connection the questionable morality of robbing future generations of their share of the limited resource endowment by profligate use of energy by the present generation.
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From page 48... ...
As the threat of depletion has diminished, the focus of those opposing cheap and abundant energy has shifted to environmental issues. The newest and most effective of these issues the threat of global warming caused by the continued unconstrained use of fossil fuels allows opponents of energy abundance to combine saving energy with saving the planet.
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From page 49... ...
Whatever the eventual path, time scale, and end point of this energy technology evolution turns out to be, it is clear that continued electrification will inherently improve the efficiency of the energy system and reduce its environmental impact. Electrification will also facilitate the transition from fossil fuels to more abundant or inexhaustible energy forms.
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From page 50... ...
Fortunately, as will be shown below, the economically recoverable fossil fuel resource base is sufficient to allow for an orderly transition to a sustainable global energy system over this period a system that will, of necessity, depend increasingly on renewable and nuclear fission or fusion options and be largely electrified. FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES, RESOURCES, AND CONSUMPTION Proved global crude oil and natural gas liquids reserves are now roughly 1.1 trillion barrels, corresponding to more than 45 years of supply at current rates of consumption.6 Thus, proved reserves have increased by 400 billion barrels since the days of the "energy crisis" while another 400 billion barrels of crude oil were used over that period.
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From page 51... ...
The true global oil potential is likely to be higherthere has been limited exploration of so many frontier areas, and huge amounts of more marginal liquid fuel resources, such as oil shale, tar sands, and other bitumens, may be economically exploited in the light of ongoing technology improvements. It is entirely feasible to convert a major share of these oil resources into transportation fuels that meet very stringent emission standards at costs that compare favorably with many other proposed solutions.
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From page 52... ...
of current world primary energy consumption with natural gas for 70 years. Some global energy futures scenarios now assume ultimate recoveries as high as 12,000 Tcf (World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Program, 1 992J.
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From page 53... ...
If one includes the technically recoverable energy content of all remaining fossil fuels, including oil shale, tar sands and other bitumens, and unconventional sources of natural gas, global resources are on the order of 200,000 quads, equivalent to almost 600 years of consumption at current rates. Clearly, in view of the demonstrated price and technology elasticity of the supply and demand of fossil fuels, resource depletion is not an issue, even if between now and the year 2100 primary energy consumption trends follow the highest fossil fuel use scenarios of energy futures studies of the MITRE Corporation and the Intergovernmental Panel on Global Climate Change (Gouse et al., 1992; World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Program, 19921.
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From page 54... ...
· Annual carbon emissions from fossil fuel use are in excess of 6 billion metric tons; SOX and NOX emissions are roughly 130 and 80 million metric tons, respectively; methane emissions are 55 to 100 million metric tons; and heavy metals emissions are about 200,000 metric tons. · Electricity consumption, because ongoing electrification tends to offset efficiency gains, continues to increase roughly in proportion to national and global economic output.
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From page 55... ...
However, even in assuming that fossil fuels will continue to meet the major share of global primary energy requirements for another 100 years because their inflation-adjusted prices will increase only moderately and no prohibitive carbon taxes will be imposed, substantial further efficiency improvements can still be justified economically. In fact, there are no longer any credible dissenters from the view that choices among options for energy supply and end use must be based on least-cost strategies to meet energy service requirements (heating, lighting, cooling, refrigeration shaft horsepower, passenger- or ton-miles, etc.~.
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From page 56... ...
Yet, a credible case can still be made that over the long term the emissions of carbon dioxide, other greenhouse gases, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and heavy metals associated with the unconstrained exploitation of the abundant remaining resources of fossil fuels could pose a significant threat to the global ecology and human well-being. However, technology advances that accelerate existing trends in electrification, decarbonization, and efficiency gains of the global energy system, as well as more rigorous control of conventional pollutant emissions, should
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From page 57... ...
This clearly requires major technological and probably financial assistance to the populous nations of the developing and the former and present communist world to ensure that their often highly coal-dependent energy systems make use of the most efficient and cost-effective and least-polluting energy supply and end use options. In any event, the task of managing the transition to a sustainable global energy system that can satisfy human needs over the indefinite future with minimal environmental impact would be greatly simplified if there were no need to curtail greenhouse emissions from fossil fuel use beyond the sizable reductions inherent in the pursuit of least-cost energy service strategies.
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From page 58... ...
heating value of dry natural gas is typically 1,000 to 1,050 Btu per standard cubic foot, with variations in global standards generally within 932 to 1,141 Btu per standard cubic foot (U.S. Department of Energy, 1991 a)
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From page 59... ...
World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Program.
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From page 60... ...
60 HENRY R LINDEN 1992 IPCC Supplement: Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, February.
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