The Bicentennial Census New Directions for Methodology in 1990: 30th Anniversary Edition (2015) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 1-30
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In the compromise between large and small states made at the 1787 Constitutional Convention, the delegates voted to provide equal representation for each state in the Senate and representation proportional to population in the House of Representatives; the population of each state was to be determined through a decennial census. Article 1, section 2, of the Constitution stipulates: Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respec tive Numbers.
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. Work is now under way to plan for the nation's bicentennial census of population and housing, scheduled to take place on April 1, 1990.
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This report is an attempt to assess the merits of proposed changes in the next decennial census that represent important departures from past practice and, specifically, to recommend concepts and procedures that should be assigned high priority in the Census Bureau's research and testing program for the nation's bicentennial census. THE PLANNING CYCLE FOR 1990 Planning for the 1990 census officially began in fall 1983 with an appropriation for fiscal 1984.
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The current budget for research on decennial census methodology, particularly for research on the undercount, is large by the standards of earlier censuses. Nevertheless, no agency of government, particularly in the con
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IIIb:73) , censuses conducted during the colonial period, generally at the direction of the Privy Council or the British Board of Trade, "were seldom regarded as complete or successful, as people perceived them being for the purposes of taxation or conscription and were evasive and uncooperative." The decennial censuses conducted in the new nation had a constitutional mandate according them legitimacy and support.
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Despite the questions raised about the population enumeration in the past, a review of decennial census history suggests that social and political forces have converged in recent years to make the census in this country -- and in other countries as well -- a matter of demonstrably greater controversy than before. Several factors are involved.
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Many analyses based on census data have implications for the distribution of political power and wealth among various population groups in the country. For example, census data on the racial, ethnic, age, and sex makeup of occupational groups in labor market areas are used to assess the extent to which work forces reflect the characteristics of the local labor force.
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The U.S. decennial census is constitutionally mandated; nevertheless, pressures are likely to be severe in the coming years to attempt drastic cost reductions both in census planning activities and in the enumeration, despite the fact that, compared with other ways of obtaining comparable information, the census is still cost-effective.
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Other ideas are directed principally at reducing costs. One such approach is to make use of sampling, not only to obtain information on characteristics, as is currently standard decennial census practice, but also as part of the procedure to obtain the count.
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Nevertheless, with concern over possible inequities in political representation and the distribution of large amounts of federal dollars as well as concern over the adequacy of the data for analysis of the socioeconomic status of important population groups, there has never been a greater need for thorough evaluation of the decennial census. This evaluation is necessary whether the object is to inform users of known errors in the census or actually to modify census results.
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INDEPENDENT REVIEWS OF DECENNIAL CENSUS PLANS The Census Bureau is actively working on methodology for the 1990 census and has assembled staffs to plan the census and specifically to work on issues of undercount and the possible adjustment of census counts. For many decades, the Census Bureau has also actively sought outside independent review of its plans and proposed procedures.
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The report included specific recommendations to conduct experimental studies of questionnaire wordings and formats and their effects on respondents; explore the utility of communication research for better understanding the reasons for census and survey undercoverage; and carry out localized participant-observer studies to learn more about the impediments to census data collection in different kinds of areas. The 1978 NRC Panel on Decennial Census Plans The Census Bureau asked the National Research Council again in 1978 to review decennial census methodology, specifically the plans for the upcoming 1980 census.
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Coverage evaluation programs provide the necessary input data for any adjustment and serve the important function of apprising users of the quality of the census counts. Procedures for coverage improvement are viewed by the panel as important and desirable even if an adjustment procedure is incorporated into census methodology.
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This is the first panel to be asked explicitly to consider important changes in decennial census methodology from the perspective of cost as well as effectiveness. A theme running through the charge to the panel is to design a methodology that improves accuracy compared with previous censuses but costs no more, and ideally less, in constant dollars.
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The panel has not attempted to apply formal cost-benefit analysis to decennial census methodology, but has endeavored to identify those proposed changes that show the most promise of improving accuracy without increasing costs or of reducing costs without importantly impairing accuracy. In this regard, the panel's recommendation for research designed to develop appropriate and feasible methods of adjustment of the census counts, together with the Census Bureau's stated goal to contain costs for the 1990 census, implies that some budget resources must be shifted from coverage improvement to coverage evaluation and adjustment.
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The panel believes, however, that in most areas the Census Bureau must choose among all the ideas and procedures proposed for testing, given constraints on available staff and budget resources and the limited time available to analyze test results and use them to guide decisions on methodology. The exception concerns research related to adjustment, including research on coverage evaluation methods.
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The panel recommends serious consideration of the need for a mid- ecade census program in 1995 to improve the quality of postcensal d estimates: 2.1. We recommend that the Census Bureau assess the need for a mid decade census, particularly by studying the effect of errors in postcensal population estimates compared with errors in the decennial census on major data uses.
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The panel suggests in this chapter some ways to scale back the 1986 testing program and in subsequent chapters provides detailed recommendations for research priorities in specific areas of census methodology.
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Chapter 4 -- Evaluating the Decennial Census: Past Experience This chapter reviews the history of coverage evaluation of population censuses in the United States from 1950 through 1980. Broadly speaking, there are two major classes of coverage evaluation techniques -- micro-level methods based on case-by-case analysis of samples of units such as persons or households and macro-level methods involving analysis of aggregate census data, including comparison of census totals with external data and analysis of internal consistency.
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5.2. We recommend that the Census Bureau set up a timetable and assign staff to permit completion of the analysis of 1990 coverage evaluation results in time to be used in planning the first pretest of the 2000 census.
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While believing that programs such as the recheck of vacant units can make important contributions to improving coverage, the panel does not subscribe to the view that every coverage improvement idea that is suggested or has been used in the past should be included in the plans for the next census. The panel recommends paring down the list of programs to be considered for 1990 and the list requiring early field testing.
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Furthermore, we recommend that the Census Bureau use focus groups that include members of hard-to-count populations as one means to explore coverage improvement techniques and to narrow the range of options to be field-tested. Chapter 6 -- Taking the Census II: Uses of Sampling and Administrative Records This chapter addresses two major methods that have been proposed to improve the cost-effectiveness of the decennial census -- the uses of sampling in obtaining the count and the use of administrative records.
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6.5. We recommend that the Census Bureau consider the use of sam pling for those coverage improvement programs that are implemented in the final stages of census operations and where there is potential for significant cost savings.
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Appendix 6.3 develops in further detail the panel's suggestion for obtaining improved data on housing structure items by means of local administrative records. Chapter 7 -- Adjustment of Population Counts In this chapter, the Panel presents its basic position on the issue of adjustment of the census counts.
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The chapter begins with consideration of the need for adjustment to improve the accuracy of the census numbers, particularly to reduce differential coverage errors across geographic locations and demographic groups. The panel is led to recommend development of adjustment procedures, but as a complement to -- not a substitute for -- continued efforts to improve census coverage.
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Adjustment of census data could create problems of internal consistency of microdata from the census with aggregate statistics. The panel believes that internal consistency is an important quality for general purpose statistics, such as those produced by the decennial census, which have a wide range of output and many uses.
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The remaining sections of Chapter 7 review possible technical approaches to the use of data from coverage evaluation programs for adjust ing the raw census figures (detailed discussion of these programs is in Chapter 8)
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Coverage evaluation programs also provide valuable infor s mation for users of the data and for the Census Bureau in planning sub sequent censuses. Although in general the panel recommends that the Census Bureau narrow its 1990 census research and testing objectives, in the area of coverage evaluation the panel believes it is too soon to focus on one method to the exclusion of others.
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The panel recommends research into using demographic analysis for estimates of the native-born population. The reverse record check method, which traces the current location of a representative sample of newborns, immigrants, and persons counted in the previous census or coverage evaluation program, has a greater problem in tracing in the United States because of the 10-year interval between censuses (as opposed to 5 years in Canada, where the method has been used extensively)
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In the area of adjustment-related research, including coverage evaluation methods, the panel acknowledges that many technical and operational issues need to be resolved if adjustment procedures are to be developed in time for their use in the nation's bicentennial census in 1990. Overall, while much effort will be required, the panel is optimistic that substantial progress can be made.
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