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4 Applying the Framework to Continuity Measurements
Pages 46-60

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From page 46... ... . As an example scenario, the decadal survey might identify and evaluate the six quantified objectives given in Box 3.2 and the associated geophysical variables given in Table 4.3. Read the entire page →
From page 47... ... Utility is the relevance of an optimal measurement to the objective, while quality is the uncertainty of the measurement relative to the objective requirement. 4.2.1 Utility Example 1: Earth Radiative Forcing Change The recent slowdown in the rate of increase in global mean surface air temperature has raised questions in the public/policy arena about the scientific understanding of climate change, with renewed focus on elements of climate forcing over the 1998-2012 period.2 The effective radiative forcing (ERF) Read the entire page →
From page 48... ... • I ce sheet mass • nterferometry SAR I • O cean temperature profile • errestrial Reference Frame and associated T • L and water storage mass surface-based tracking stations • ravity change measurements G • n-situ ocean heat content profiles from the Argo I network Land Carbon Sink • tmospheric CO2 concentrations A • R eflected solar spectrometry • and photosynthesis L • M oderate-resolution multispectral VIS/NIR • and vegetation biomass disturbance and L • I mager radiances biomass burning • H igh-resolution multispectral VIS/NIR, TIR, • espiration/decomposition R lidar, and long-wavelength radar • ODIS/VIIRS and SMAP M Ocean Heat Storage • cean temperature profile O • ravity G Change • ea level S • adar altimetry R • ass component of sea level (glaciers, ice M sheets, river runoff) Ice Sheet Mass • I ce sheet mass • S urface interferometry Balance Change • I ce sheet elevation • R adar and laser altimetry, supplemented by SAR • I ce sheet velocity • B roadband radiances • I ce sheet base topography • G ravity change measurements • O cean temperature profile near ice sheet edge • S pectrally resolved solar irradiances VIS/IR radiances, VIS/IR imager radiances NOTE: GNSS, Global Navigation Satellite System; GRACE, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; IR, infrared; MODIS, ModerateResolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; SAR, synthetic aperture radar; SMAP, Soil Moisture Active-Passive; TIR, thermal infrared; TOA, top of the atmosphere; UV, ultraviolet; VIIRS, Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite; VIS, visible. Read the entire page →
From page 49... ... Uncertainties in other geophysical variables such as total solar irradiance, surface properties/albedo and stratospheric O3 are seen to be changing more slowly and with less uncertainty. The above analysis suggests that sustained, multidecadal spaceborne measurements of tropospheric O 3, stratospheric aerosols, tropospheric aerosols, and cloud properties are of highest utility for addressing the quantified objective for ERF. Read the entire page →
From page 50... ... The other carbon cycle geo hysical p variables are related to the sources and sinks of carbon that in aggregate result in the measured concentrations of atmospheric CO2. Because of the multiple geophysical variables required, many of the individual observations related to the carbon cycle observations have low utility ratings. Read the entire page →
From page 51... ... To address these will require the linkage of in situ process studies with a variety of satellite data sources to determine how this important land carbon cycle component can be understood and modeled. A coordinated observing system will be required to execute and sustain a time series of global CO2 atmospheric concentration and flux data products at spatial and temporal resolutions that allow rigorous evaluation and improvement of models needed to reduce uncertainty in future predictions/projections. Read the entire page →
From page 52... ... 4.3.2 Quality Example 2 Another factor in quality is the impact of a data gap on measurement repeatability and hence the tolerance of a gap in a measurement made with a given calibration uncertainty in addressing the quantified objective. The difference in quality of the climate record with and without continuity of the proposed measurement provides input for continuity decision making: If the difference in quality is small, the continuity observation priority will be low, if the quality difference is large, the continuity observation priority will be high. Read the entire page →
From page 53... ... , and the σ2sam may be determined using orbital sampling simulations, with τsam determined by the time-averaging interval for the global change time series, typically annual mean values. Algorithm uncertainty (alg) Read the entire page →
From page 54... ... Similar logic would apply to the other objective examples in the appendixes for sea level rise, changing ocean heat storage, changing ice sheet mass balance, and global land carbon sinks. Read the entire page →
From page 55... ... , and lower Q values correspond to those with less than 68 percent confidence. Finding: The quality of a measurement may be quantitatively evaluated by combining metrics arising from instrument calibration uncertainty, repeatability, time and space sampling, and data systems and delivery for climate variables (algorithms, reprocessing, and availability) Read the entire page →
From page 56... ... 4.6 SUMMARY EVALUATION OF THE FRAMEWORK CHARACTERISTICS As described in Section 3.6, the committee has focused on two approaches for evaluation of the framework measurement characteristics, namely, subjective and analytical methods. For the subjective method, an expert-based adjectival rating for each of five measurement characteristics constitutes the input to the summary evaluation. Read the entire page →
From page 57... ... Scoring Rationale 0 - 0.2 Low Instrument performance (including instrument calibration uncertainty, repeatability, time and space sampling, and data systems and delivery of climate variables [algorithms, reprocessing, and availability] Read the entire page →
From page 58... ... Biomass burning 0.95 On-orbit experience MODIS/VIIRS and Landsat Respiration/decomposition 0.8 Requires in situ process studies linked to OCO-2, Landsat, MODIS/VIIRS, and SMAP NOTE: CERES, Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System; CLARREO, Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory; InSAR, interferometric synthetic aperture radar; MODIS, Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; OCO-2, Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2; SMAP, Soil Moisture Active-Passive; VIIRS, Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite. TABLE 4.9 Subjective Method Ratings for Affordability (A) Read the entire page →
From page 59... ... . NOTE: CERES, Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System; CLARREO, Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory; GRACE, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; ICESat, Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite; InSAR, interferometric synthetic aperture radar; MODIS, Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; NISAR, NASA-ISRO synthetic aperture radar; OCO-2, Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2; OIB, Operation IceBridge; SMAP, Soil Moisture Active- assive; VIIRS, Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite. Read the entire page →
From page 60... ... Chapter 8 in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Stocker, T.F., D Read the entire page →

From page 46...

... . As an example scenario, the decadal survey might identify and evaluate the six quantified objectives given in Box 3.2 and the associated geophysical variables given in Table 4.3.

4 Applying the Framework to Continuity Measurements Pages 46-60

4 Applying the Framework to Continuity Measurements
Pages 46-60