Continuity of NASA Earth Observations from Space A Value Framework (2015) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix C: Full Framework Example: Narrowing Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity
Appendix C: Full Framework Example: Narrowing Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity
Pages 71-77
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From page 71... ...
The first is to determine anthropogenic radiative forcing, and then compare that forcing to the amount of global temperature change. This method is limited primarily by our large uncertainty in the amount of anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing, especially for aerosol indirect effects (see the discussion in Section 4.2.1 on the utility of measurements for aerosol forcing)
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From page 72... ...
and the absolute accuracy required to observe the subtle changes in CRF expected for even large cloud feedbacks. These early radiation budget observations were less accurate by a factor of 2 or more than recent CERES observations.
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From page 73... ...
The relationship between absolutethe trend of shortwave cloud radiative forcing if a perfect observingFIGURE C.1 detect a Fig. SW cloud feedback uncertainty measured as calibration trend with 95% confidence in 20 instrument accuracy, and dataand thelength of the trend observed.
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From page 74... ...
Tests were performed to verify if MODIS + radiative transfer theory could be used to cover the gaps in CERES observations, but this method proved inadequate to maintain climate record accuracy across data gaps or to reliably connect the CERES records across the gap.
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From page 75... ...
While surface based observations of transmitted solar radiation are correlated with top of atmosphere reflected fluxes, the relationship is very noisy (~ 70 W m−2 1 σ instantaneous noise as shown by time/space matched CERES and BSRN (Baseline Surface Radiation Network) observations, or roughly 30 percent of the insolation at the CERES overpass time)
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From page 76... ...
This is true despite the 20 year head start of the CERES/MODIS/VIIRS record. In the future, it would be useful to extend the equations in Section 4.3.2 to not only include past record lengths, but to also separate the trend effects of absolute calibration uncertainty and data gap issues from the effects of overlapped climate records with uncertain slow calibration drifts over time.
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From page 77... ...
Chapter 8 in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Stocker, T.F., D
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