Independent Cost Estimates for Design and Construction of Transit Facilities in Rural and Small Urban Areas (2015) / Chapter Skim
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM December 2015 Responsible Senior Program Officer: Gwen Chisholm Smith C o n t e n t s Chapter 1 Introduction, 2 Chapter 2 Literature Review, 4 Chapter 3 Research Methodology, 10 Chapter 4 telephone Interviews, 13 Chapter 5 online survey, 15 Chapter 6 Development of the Cost estimating Database and Prototype tool for Rural and small Urban Area transit Facilities, 25 Chapter 7 Guidelines for Reviewing Cost estimates, 42 Chapter 8 Conclusions, 46 References, 47 Appendices, 48 InDePenDent Cost estIMAtes FoR DesIGn AnD ConstRUCtIon oF tRAnsIt FACILItIes In RURAL AnD sMALL URbAn AReAs This digest presents the results of NCHRP Project 20-65, Task 53, "Independent Cost Estimates for Design and Construction of Rural and Small Urban Transit Facilities." The research was conducted by ICF International, Fairfax, Virginia, in association with Stuart Anderson, Texas A&M University, principal investigator, and Keith Molenaar, University of Colorado, and Clifford Schexnayder, Arizona State University, co-principal investigators. Research Results Digest 397 sUMMARY Most organizations that develop and deliver capital projects have a continu ing program of projects.
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2small urban area transit facilities. Many factors cause this situation.
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3Research objectives The main research objectives were to define the characteristics of rural and small urban area tran sit faci lities, develop an appropriate cost estimating data base of relevant historical cost elements, and create a prototype tool to support a conceptual esti mating process for these facilities. This research had the following three subobjectives: • Identify the current estimating practice in the transit facility industry.
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4transit facilities. Limitations of the prototype tool are also addressed at the end of the chapter.
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5performed in the facilities include fueling, washing, fare collection, lightbulb replace ment, and fuellevel checks. • Level II: A secondary maintenance facility is often called an inspection garage.
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6As project definition levels evolve and more inform ation becomes known, the expected estimate accuracy increases and accuracy range decreases. Besides project definition, there are systemic risks affecting estimate accuracy, such as project com plexity, quality of reference cost estimating data, quality of assumptions used when preparing the estimate, and estimating techniques used.
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7(2013) compared different methods of estimating city indexes.
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8Risk Management Many uncertainties are associated with project development. Project participants may fail to iden tify the uncertainties and make appropriate adjust ments to an estimate, which gives rise to project cost overruns.
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9definition becomes clear and information for cost elements becomes available, the baseline estimates increase while the contingency portion should decrease. Regarding the contingency estimating method, Olumide et al.
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10 quantified risk factors against cost escalation of historical projects. Once a risk factor is quan tified by the project team, estimates, such as a most likely value and a range of costs, can be derived from the parametric model.
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11 area transit facilities suggested by the interviewees. For example, the descriptions of risk factors were aggregated based on all interviewees' inputs.
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12 (10%) , then the null hypothesis should be rejected.
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13 and small urban area transit facilities. A structured interview protocol was developed based on the find ings obtained from the literature review.
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14 Availability of Historical Cost Databases Few state DOTs or transit agencies maintain their own historical cost databases. They tend to hire consulting firms to perform certain tasks on their behalf, such as preparing and reviewing estimates and checking change orders for projects.
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15 • In order to address project risks, contingency is estimated as a percentage of construction cost; however, risks are seldom tied directly to the amount of contingency. • Lack of funding for rural facilities often gives rise to project delays.
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16 ground conditions, soil conditions, and environmen tal issues, were mentioned by interviewees and then added as choices in a question asking for the reasons for cost overruns. Survey invitations were sent on November 6, 2013, to 52 state DOT personnel who manage pub lic transit facility funding programs and 323 transit managers and consultants across the United States.
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17 actual design and construction costs and design and construction schedules (start and finish data)
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table 5 Survey design and construction cost data. # Midpoint of Design Midpoint of Construction Facility Type Project Size (sf)
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16 01/2010 Not completed Administration, operations, maintenance, vehicle storage 70,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 30,000,000 -- 17 01/2012 05/2012 Administration, operations, maintenance, vehicle storage 2,000 -- 16,600 122,500 133,100 18 09/2012 -- Administration, operations, maintenance, vehicle storage 33,295 450,000 -- 6,816,772 -- 19 01/2010 06/2011 Administration, operations, maintenance, vehicle storage 40,000 1,586,500 1,586,500 7,557,392 7,872,283 20 05/2011 10/2011 Administration, operations, maintenance, vehicle storage 12,500 -- -- -- -- 21 10/2009 Not completed Administration, operations, maintenance, vehicle storage 75,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 30,000,000 -- 22 10/2009 07/2010 Sheltered bus stop 100 6,000 7,500 90,000 128,000 23 09/2011 Sheltered bus stop, signonly bus stop 30 -- -- 6,691 7,531 24 08/2007 03/2010 Administration, operations, maintenance, vehicle storage, park and ride 32,000 -- -- -- -- 25 08/2013 -- Administration, operations, maintenance, vehicle storage, small passenger facility, sheltered bus stop, unsheltered bus stop, signonly bus stop 75,000 95,000 -- 950,000 -- 26 10/2006 06/2005 Administration, operations, maintenance, vehicle storage, small passenger facility, sheltered bus stop 45,000 70,696 81,686 1,390,762 1,364,494
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20 Construction Cost Data manual. For locations not included in the city cost index, the CNN method was used to estimate cost indexes.
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21 group elements: (1) substructure, (2)
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22 • The larger percentages of shell and services construction costs for the second combina tion might be due to the fact that projects including operations, maintenance, or vehicle storage might require more heating, ventila tion, and air conditioning (HVAC) , plumb ing, and electrical construction to ensure that services or activities can be performed safely and efficiently.
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23 If design cost and project size are Z and X respec tively, then at a 90% confidence level, the straight line regression model is Z = 31.635567 X (X > 0)
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24 of construction materials. Not recognizing a proj ect's high complexity will cause some criteria for a project not to be met during the decision process, and contingency will not be estimated at a proper level.
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25 manual. The database is limited by the amount of cost data collected through the online survey.
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26 Figure 13 Cost estimating database -- basic project information and project duration. Figure 14 Cost estimating database -- project cost information.
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27 Introduction The cost estimating prototype tool is an Excel file. Once the user opens the tool, the Introduction tab will be shown.
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28 Figure 16 (A) Screen capture of the Cost Estimating Prototype Tool -- Introduction.
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29 is 100. The prototype tool uses the following equa tion to adjust design and construction costs from the national average to any particular region.
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Figure 17 (A) Screen capture of the Cost Estimating Prototype Tool -- User's Guide.
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Figure 17 (C) Screen capture of the Cost Estimating Prototype Tool -- User's Guide (continued)
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Figure 18 (b) Screen capture of the Cost Estimating Prototype Tool -- Project Information (continued)
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33 Estimates Details The Estimates Details tab provides the user with the detailed calculations of the estimate and the his torical index information. The user can also review the location factor for each region, risk factors, and any comments the user input in the Project Informa tion tab.
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Figure 19 (b) Screen capture of the Cost Estimating Prototype Tool -- Estimates Report (continued)
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35 Figure 20 (A) Screen capture of the Cost Estimating Prototype Tool -- Estimates Details.
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36 breakdown for each construction system. In this way, the difference of percentage breakdown of dif ferent combinations can be reflected to some degree.
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37 Figure 20 (C) Screen capture of the Cost Estimating Prototype Tool -- Estimates Details (continued)
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38 Figure 20 (D) Screen capture of the Cost Estimating Prototype Tool -- Estimates Details (continued)
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39 contingency as follows: lower boundary (e.g., 10%) , most likely contingency percentage (e.g., 15%)
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Figure 21 (A) Screen capture of ABC Project -- Project Information.
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Figure 21 (C) Screen capture of ABC Project -- Project Information (continued)
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42 ment of Transportation's Cost Estimation and Cost Management: Technical Reference Manual (Minne sota Department of Transportation 2008)
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43 2. Did the estimator clearly follow a structured cost estimating process, such as that depicted in terms of the flowchart in Figure 24?
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44 Figure 24 Cost estimating process derived from the Practical Guide to Cost Estimating (American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials 2013)
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45 Determine Risk and Contingency In order to review risks and contingency deter mined by the estimator, the reviewer should consider the following: • What is the contract type for the project? According to the FTA, typical contract types include firm fixedprice and cost reimburse ment contracts.
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46 • Both design and construction costs are estimated based on similar projects. Regression functions of design and construction costs were obtained through regression analysis, and the functions were used in the cost estimating prototype tool to predict future design and construction costs at the conceptual estimating phase.
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47 2003. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 24–29.
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48 struction projects, proceed with Phase 1 work outlined in the following a. Phase 1: architectural and engineering services (1)
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49 As part of NCHRP Project 2065, Task 53, this research focuses on the development of independent cost estimates for the design and construction of rural and small urban area transit facilities. The work is being conducted by the Texas A&M Transportation Institute (TTI)
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50 table 10 Location adjustment factor. City Name Population*
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51 table 10 (Continued) City Name Population*
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table 10 (Continued) City Name Population*
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53 table 10 (Continued) City Name Population*
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54 table 10 (Continued) City Name Population*
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55 o Yes o No Please explain the reasons. APPenDIX H Cost estIMAtInG PRoCess Table 11 shows the five steps of the cost estimat ing process and their descriptions.
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Transportation Research Board 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 These digests are issued in order to increase awareness of research results emanating from projects in the Cooperative Research Programs (CRP)
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