The National Academies Press

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From page 49... ... 49 Overview Objectives The research team developed the following specific objectives for evaluation method development: • The process must consider the goal being pursued and the scope and nature of the decision being made. • The method should guide evaluations of potential alternative container transport systems -- both in the abstract and in specific port and terminal applications. Read the entire page →
From page 50... ... 50 Evaluating Alternatives for Landside Transport of Ocean Containers • Evaluating and choosing. The rigor and depth of the selection process should be matched to the decision being made, with comparative rankings being suitable for early-stage research support and extensive quantification being required for multi-billion-dollar construction commitments. Read the entire page →
From page 51... ... Proposed Evaluation Method 51 phase to be considered. Criteria are likely to be more stringent and quantified and include factors such as the potential for commercial success and integration with existing facilities. Read the entire page →
From page 52... ... 52 Evaluating Alternatives for Landside Transport of Ocean Containers criteria, against a baseline scenario, or against each other. The content and approach within the steps, however, will vary considerably depending on • The decision to be made. Read the entire page →
From page 53... ... Proposed Evaluation Method 53 In a less dramatic example, a port with a single-container terminal or a compact cluster of terminals may be seeking a system to connect an off-terminal rail intermodal facility. The Port of Baltimore is one example. Read the entire page →
From page 54... ... 54 Evaluating Alternatives for Landside Transport of Ocean Containers Selecting and Weighting Criteria There is an important difference between evaluating line-haul transport technologies and evaluating complete container transport systems built around those technologies. An early-stage evaluation goal of funding further research would require criteria for conceptual technology comparisons. Read the entire page →
From page 55... ... Proposed Evaluation Method 55 Weighting Criteria As the scope increases, the criteria and weighting factors become less qualitative and more comprehensive and quantitative. For early-stage decisions, selecting a few simple, narrow, unweighted, general criteria is most appropriate. Read the entire page →
From page 56... ... 56 Evaluating Alternatives for Landside Transport of Ocean Containers Ports with on-dock or near-dock intermodal rail terminals have mixed container transport systems whose realities should be reflected in defining a baseline for comparisons. The following questions are relevant: • What is the current and forecast mix of OTR truck, truck shuttle to near-dock rail, and on-dock rail transfer? Read the entire page →
From page 57... ... Proposed Evaluation Method 57 • Incremental technological improvements in truck drayage propulsion produce consistent short- and long-term TBL benefits. Emissions from modern tractors are a small fraction of those from legacy fleets. Read the entire page →
From page 58... ... 58 Evaluating Alternatives for Landside Transport of Ocean Containers Locating Potential Candidates An evaluation of any kind would usually begin with publication of the minimum performance objectives or goals and an invitation to submit concepts or proposals. Alternatively, evaluators could conduct a search for candidates. Read the entire page →
From page 59... ... Proposed Evaluation Method 59 but can also find application in other instances. For example, proposals might be found to have fatal flaws if they • Would not function under the range of operating conditions (e.g., weather extremes) Read the entire page →
From page 60... ... 60 Evaluating Alternatives for Landside Transport of Ocean Containers compilation tend to be costly and time-consuming and blur the line between data assembly and data analysis. Regardless of whether data are readily available, evaluators of inland container transport proposals will need to address issues common to all such efforts: • Comparability. Read the entire page →
From page 61... ... Proposed Evaluation Method 61 • Agreement on risk assessments, typically expressed as expected values for each outcome. • Agreement on a discount rate (interest rate) Read the entire page →
From page 62... ... 62 Evaluating Alternatives for Landside Transport of Ocean Containers • Implementation risk -- the risk that the system will take longer to implement than expected • Commercial risk -- the risk that the system will not be commercially viable • Environmental risk -- the risk that the system will have greater adverse environmental impacts than estimated • Safety risk -- the risk that the system would cause or increase the likelihood of harm to persons or property, or of terrorist or politically induced attack Measurement and evaluation of risk is difficult at best. Ideally, there would be a large number of similar attempts from which a distribution of outcomes could be derived. Read the entire page →
From page 63... ... Proposed Evaluation Method 63 Another way to approach risk assessment is to estimate the costs of reducing or averting risk. One source17 suggests the following pertinent questions: • What can be done and what options are available? Read the entire page →
From page 64... ... 64 Evaluating Alternatives for Landside Transport of Ocean Containers there are multiple criteria. One means of ranking proposals against multiple criteria is shown in Table 4-5. Read the entire page →
From page 65... ... Proposed Evaluation Method 65 Criteria Scoring Using a broader scale (e.g., 1–100, as shown in Table 4-8) allows both more discrimination between similar proposals and a wide spread between disparate proposals. Read the entire page →
From page 66... ... 66 Evaluating Alternatives for Landside Transport of Ocean Containers Weighted Criteria Scoring The performance of proposals against a set of criteria and the relative importance of those criteria to the relevant decisionmakers can eventually be combined in weighted criteria scoring. As illustrated in Table 4-10, selection criteria are given weights (by whatever method) Read the entire page →
From page 67... ... Proposed Evaluation Method 67 Monetized Criteria Scoring When criteria have been monetized in the analytical phase, the evaluation exercise is straightforward as commonly used economic and financial investment techniques such as cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis can be applied. During the analytical phase, TBL costs and benefits of alternative container transport systems are estimated from inception and throughout their useful lives. Read the entire page →

From page 49...

... 49 Overview Objectives The research team developed the following specific objectives for evaluation method development: • The process must consider the goal being pursued and the scope and nature of the decision being made. • The method should guide evaluations of potential alternative container transport systems -- both in the abstract and in specific port and terminal applications.