Forecasting Transportation Revenue Sources: Survey of State Practices (2015) / Chapter Skim
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33 APPENDIX B Case Studies of Selected State Practices Arizona California Michigan Minnesota Missouri Oregon Texas Washington
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34 ARIzoNA Short-Term Forecasting Entity: Arizona's DOT Long-Term Forecasting Entity: Arizona's DOT Types of Revenue Forecast: Federal funds allocated to the state, state gasoline per gallon taxes, state diesel fuel per gallon taxes, state vehicle registration and/or license fees, local (county or regional) sales and property taxes Type of Forecasting: Expert Consensus, Econometric.
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35 CAlIFoRNIA Short-Term Forecasting Entity: Caltrans (California DOT)
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36 MIChIgAN Short-Term Forecasting Entity: Michigan's DOT. The 1 to 2 year forecast is done in "consensus" with Michigan Department of Treasury.
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37 MINNESotA Short-Term Forecasting Entity: Minnesota's DOT Long-Term Forecasting Entity: Minnesota's DOT Types of Revenue Forecast: Federal funds allocated to the state, state gasoline per gallon taxes, state diesel fuel per gallon taxes, state vehicle registration and/or license fees, state sales taxes designated for transportation Types of Forecasting: Trend extrapolation based on historical trends and national macroeconomic forecasts. To forecast the state per gallon gasoline excise tax, Minnesota uses national macroeconomic forecast of U.S.
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38 MISSouRI Short-Term Forecasting Entity: Missouri's DOT Long-Term Forecasting Entity: Missouri's DOT Types of Revenue Forecast: Federal funds allocated to the state, state gasoline per gallon taxes, state diesel fuel per gallon taxes, state vehicle registration and/or license fees, state sales taxes designated for transportation. Types of Forecasting: Trend extrapolation, expert consensus.
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39 oREgoN Short-Term Forecasting Entity: Department of Transportation and others Long-Term Forecasting Entity: Department of Transportation and others Types of Revenue Forecast: Federal, state diesel, state vehicle registration/license, state sales tax, weight-mile tax Type of Forecasting: Econometric Data Inputs: Oregon uses 6–8 explanatory variables, including national CPI, employment, housing starts, real GDP, real fuel price, and new automobile sales. Also uses Oregon-specific inputs -- employment, housing starts, populations, Portland CPI, real personal income.
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40 tEXAS Short-Term Forecasting Entity: Texas' DOT Long-Term Forecasting Entity: Texas' DOT Types of Revenue Forecast: Federal funds allocated to the state, state gasoline per gallon taxes, state diesel fuel per gallon taxes, state vehicle registration and/or license fees, tolls, allocations of state general revenues, state sales taxes on lubricants designated for transportation, Local participation, Interest on cash balances, other agency and miscellaneous revenue deposited to the highway fund, Taxes and fees dedicated to the Texas Mobility Fund Types of Forecasting: In Texas, different agencies have responsibility for forecasting different types of revenues. TxDOT forecasts motor fuel tax and sales tax and miscellaneous revenues, while the Department of Motor Vehicles forecasts vehicle registration fees.
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41 WAShINgtoN Short-Term Forecasting Entity: Washington's DOT is lead agency with assistance from other state economists and some consulting firms Long-Term Forecasting Entity: Washington's DOT is lead agency with assistance from other state economists and some consulting firms Types of Revenue Forecast: Federal funds allocated to the state, state gasoline per gallon taxes, state diesel fuel per gallon taxes, state vehicle registration and/or license fees, tolls, allocations of state general revenues, state sales taxes designated for transportation, local (county or regional) sales and property taxes, rental car fee, driver related fees, aviation fees, ferry fares and miscellaneous business related revenues Types of Forecasting: Econometric, travel demand models and some trend analysis Washington's DOT uses multiple models for short and long term forecasts of diesel and gasoline consumption in the state of Washington.
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Abbreviations used without definitions in TRB publications: A4A Airlines for America AAAE American Association of Airport Executives AASHO American Association of State Highway Officials AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials ACI–NA Airports Council International–North America ACRP Airport Cooperative Research Program ADA Americans with Disabilities Act APTA American Public Transportation Association ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials ATA American Trucking Associations CTAA Community Transportation Association of America CTBSSP Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program DHS Department of Homeland Security DOE Department of Energy EPA Environmental Protection Agency FAA Federal Aviation Administration FHWA Federal Highway Administration FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration FRA Federal Railroad Administration FTA Federal Transit Administration HMCRP Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 ITE Institute of Transportation Engineers MAP-21 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (2012) NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASAO National Association of State Aviation Officials NCFRP National Cooperative Freight Research Program NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NTSB National Transportation Safety Board PHMSA Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration RITA Research and Innovative Technology Administration SAE Society of Automotive Engineers SAFETEA-LU Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (2005)
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 5 0 0 F ifth S tre e t, N W W a s h in g to n , D C 2 0 0 0 1 A D D R ESS SER VICE R EQ UESTED NO N-PRO FIT O RG .
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