Quantifying Transit’s Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use—The Land Use Component (2015) / Chapter Skim
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13 S E C T I O N 4 4.1 Summary of Key Findings There are two key aspects of the land use effect: 1. The effect of existing transit systems and 2.
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14 Quantifying Transit's Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use -- The Land Use Component • Effect of transit trips replacing automobile trips. By transporting people on buses and trains that would otherwise travel by automobile, transit systems also produce a complementary ridership effect.
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The Land Use Effect of Transit: Findings 15 • Improving employment accessibility by clustering new jobs around transit nodes or improving the bus and rail network in individual neighborhoods can also have potent land use effects (described in more detail in Section 4.4.2)
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16 Quantifying Transit's Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use -- The Land Use Component understate the magnitude of the land use effect. Still, using gross density to analyze the land use effect provides a solid link between transit systems and travel patterns.
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The Land Use Effect of Transit: Findings 17 Therefore, a combined 10% increase in VMT without transit (combined ridership and land use benefits) indicates the broad influence of transit systems on travel patterns.
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18 Quantifying Transit's Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use -- The Land Use Component relatively small urban area. The latter tend to be college towns where a high proportion of the population is made up of students, many of whom use transit regularly and do not own a car.
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The Land Use Effect of Transit: Findings 19 4.4.1 Regional Level At the regional level, land use effects of transit system improvements are measured using elasticity values derived from the urbanized area models. Increasing transit route densities by 1% in a region is associated with an increase in population density of 0.2%.
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20 Quantifying Transit's Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use -- The Land Use Component According to Metro's most recent Long-Range Transportation Plan, an additional 430 new directional route miles of high-quality transit (including rail and bus rapid transit) are due to be added to the transit system by 2040.
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The Land Use Effect of Transit: Findings 21 The CTOD TOD Database (TOD for "transit-oriented development) provides several data indicators of the success of this TOD-based turnaround in terms of reversing Evanston's overall population decline and concentrating growth around its high-capacity transit lines.
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22 Quantifying Transit's Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use -- The Land Use Component Areas within a half mile of the four stations increased their activity density by an average 9% over approximately 10 years.10 (When compared to the base trend of population and employment growth in the Chicago region, the station areas saw a net 7% increase in activity density.) This change in density is expected to lead to a 2% reduction in VMT, transportation fuel use, and transportation GHG emissions by households living in the area.
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The Land Use Effect of Transit: Findings 23 • Clustering future job growth in other parts of the region near high-quality transit nodes. A longer term option, improving the region-wide proximity of jobs to high-quality transit, makes living near transit a more desirable option throughout the transit network.
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24 Quantifying Transit's Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use -- The Land Use Component 4.6 Factors that May Influence the Land Use Effect More than just transit investments influence land use development patterns, even in areas immediately adjacent to transit. Public support and market forces play an important role in determining land use patterns.
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The Land Use Effect of Transit: Findings 25 The findings of the ITDP study are consistent with other studies in the field that have used more rigorous statistical methods. An extensive analysis of the San Francisco area's BART heavyrail transit system and its effects on development patterns (Cervero et al.
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26 Quantifying Transit's Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use -- The Land Use Component expect twice the land use effect from a rail transit system as from a bus transit system. And in fact, the land use effect of existing systems with rail is nearly twice that of existing systems without rail, as shown in Table 4.
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The Land Use Effect of Transit: Findings 27 Source: Nelson/Nygaard.
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28 Quantifying Transit's Impact on GHG Emissions and Energy Use -- The Land Use Component Applying the models developed for this research, the research team estimates that a 1% increase in freeway lane miles per capita in an urban area is associated with a 0.1% decrease in population density. A 1% increase in non-freeway lane miles per capita is associated with a 0.5% decrease in population density in the region.
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