An Examination of 14 Projects to Validate the Results of SHRP 2’s Transportation Project Impact Case Studies (T-PICS) (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Table of Contents Executive Summary Chapter 1: Introduction 2. Description of Analytical Methodologies Method 1: Survey of Businesses Feeding into REMI PI+ (Survey/REMI)
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Project Analysis: Appalachian Development Highway System -- Corridor P Bypass Projects Project Analysis: MN TH-371/Brainerd Bypass Project Analysis:US-71/MN-23 Willmar Bypass Project Analysis: Iowa 5/US-65 Beltway (Bypass) from W Junction 5/65 to I-80 Summary Graphic: Bypass Projects Connector Projects Project Analysis: Washington State Route 509 Summary Graphic Graphic: Connector Project Findings and Conclusions Highway Corridor Project Comparisons Chapter 4: General Evaluation: Suggestions for Consideration References Appendix A: How Variation Between the Test Case Projects and the T-PICS Case Study Projects Can Distort Estimated Impacts Appendix B: Opportunity Drive Case Study Survey Appendix C: T-PICS Inputs, Sliding Scale Settings, and Results Tables For Each of the 14 Test Case Study Projects
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Chapter 1: Introduction This research report is intended to provide an evaluation of the SHRP 2 product known as Transportation Project Impact Case Studies (T-PICS)
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answers to common questions that policy makers and stakeholders most frequently ask while considering their investment options, such as the following. "What are the potential economic impacts we might expect from this project?
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Figure E.1. Location of 14 test case study projects.
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traffic [AADT] , urban/class level, population density)
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3. For longer widening projects, we found that T-PICS overstates the projected economic impact if the full length of the corridor is not readily developable (a rural greenfield)
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1. Continue to emphasize the proper time to use T-PICS: early in the planning process as an initial policy or strategy development tool.
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Chapter 1: Introduction For many state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) , metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs)
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that could have significant utility as a preliminary planning tool for transportation planners at state DOTs and MPOs all across the country. The result of this initiative is the Transportation Project Impact Case Studies (T-PICS)
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Figure 1.1. Location of 14 test case study projects.
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project" to describe the 100 T-PICS case study projects and "test case study project" to describe the 14 projects that were used to test the results of T-PICS. The report is organized as follows: Following this Chapter 1 introduction, Chapter 2 of the report describes the four test case study methodologies that we utilize to evaluate and measure the economic impact of the 14 test case study projects that we examined.
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Our research team, which consists of transportation and economic development professionals from the state of Minnesota, the University of Minnesota, and economists with the firm Regional Economic Models, Inc.
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It is in this spirit that we will suggest a number of recommendations that we believe would help the tool become more effective, building on existing fundamentals -- its quantitative project database, interactive capabilities, and wealth of actual project context.
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Chapter 2: Description of Analytical Methodologies The fundamental purpose of our research is focused on validating the results derived through use of the My Project Tools function of T-PICS. This research effort compares the results of the economic outcomes of 14 test case study projects in four of the T-PICS project categories (interchange, widening, bypass, and connector)
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simulates increased sales and purchases among affected businesses, suppliers of capital and labor, consumers, government, importers and exporters, and other entities interacting in the local economy. These interactions produce year-to-year estimates of total economic impacts composed of direct project impacts and indirect and induced impacts (or ripple effects)
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the one Minnesota project classified simply as widening (Minnesota Trunk Highway 60 expansion from Windom to Heron Lake) the research team examined project environmental impact statements (EIS)
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Airport) ; three projects in Iowa (an interchange at 86th Street near Des Moines, a widening project called the Iowa 60/US-75 Le Mars Corridor, and a bypass project at Iowa 5/US-65 on the southeast side of Des Moines)
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and the one project classified as widening (Minnesota Trunk Highway 60 expansion from Windom to Heron Lake)
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Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
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HIGHWAY CORRIDORS Widening Minnesota TH 60 Washington I-405 New Mexico US-54 Iowa US-60/US-75 LeMars Corridor Georgia -- Appalachia Corridor A/A1 Kentucky -- Appalachia Corridor I West Virginia -- Appalachia Corridor L Pennsylvania -- Appalachia Corridor P Bypass Minnesota TH-371 -- Brainerd Bypass Minnesota US 71 -- TH-23 -- Willmar Bypass Iowa 5/US-65 -- Des Moines Connector Washington SR 509
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Chapter 3: Results/Estimates of Actual Economic Impact and Comparison to T-PICS Results In order to compare the economic impact estimates generated by T-PICS with those observed by our alternative analytical methods, a first step for each project involved translating and entering the features of the 14 test case study projects into the T-PICS template. This step required the identification of quantitative or objective features for each project, such as project cost, traffic volume, economic distress, and urban class indicators and -- after any necessary recalibration -- entering that data as inputs to the T-PICS interface.
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illustrating the economic development associated with the project, a table showing the results of the comparison, and a findings/conclusions chapter that will offer an analysis of the test results. One of the more broad-based, general recommendations offered from this research addresses the classification of project types in T-PICS.
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Interchange Projects Figure 3.1. I-1: Minnesota Opportunity Drive Interchange on I-94.
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Construction of the Opportunity Drive interchange began in 2003 and was completed in 2004 at a cost of $7.85 million. Prior to the construction, vehicles used an interchange two miles north on I-94 and then traveled on county roads to reach an adjacent industrial park and other nearby destinations.
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Total Impacts Within Within Under T-PICS Basic Selection Factors Interchange, Great Lakes/Plains, Metro, Non-Distressed Figure 3.2. Sliding scale settings for I-94/Opportunity Drive.
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available data. However, we also were sensitive to the influence of the slider settings on the results generated, and the limited hard data available to potential users who are employing the tool.
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result, T-PICS generates an estimate of project costs that is significantly greater than the actual cost. (T-PICS estimated the project to cost more than $100 million when the true project cost was less than $8 million.)
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Figure 3.3. I-2: Iowa 86th Street Interchange.
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Direct Impacts 1,062 to 1,770 $58,600 to $97,700 $186,300 to $310,500 Supplier and Wage Impacts 908 to 1,513 $34,000 to $56,600 $105,800 to $176,300 Total Impacts 1,970 to 3,283 $92,600 to $154,300 $292,100 to $486,800 Alt. Method 3: REMI TranSight Total Impacts 82 $3,000 $10,000 Comparison (T-PICS to Alt.
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Figure 3.4. Sliding Scale Settings for I-94/Opportunity Drive.
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already available, the economic impact attributable to this interchange is diluted. It is also likely, given the specific characteristics of this location, that a significant share of the economic activity occurring near this interchange gained access via local and secondary roads that also provide easy access for many living or working in the region.
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Figure 3.5. Comparison of estimated jobs added: T-PICS range versus alternative method interchange projects.
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Findings/Conclusions on Interchange Project Comparisons 1. When the test case study project (e.g.
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other subcategories of direct or supplier and wage impacts. For example, in the Minnesota Opportunity Drive test case, three of the T-PICS case study projects used to generate its results had significantly higher construction costs than Opportunity Drive and, as a result, inflated the estimated project costs of Opportunity Drive.
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Highway Corridor Projects: Widening Projects Figure 3.6. W-1: Minnesota MN TH 60 Expansion from Windom to Heron Lake.
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from both ends of the corridor. In addition to its principal arterial function, TH-60 serves as a vital access link between the town centers located along the corridor, as well as providing access to the secondary county highway and local township road system serving the surrounding agricultural lands.
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(range: 2,083 to 4,320) (range: $9,802 to $67,651)
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• The comparison of the three methods of economic impact estimation for the TH-60 expansion project reveals that T-PICS produces the highest estimates of employment, wage, and output impacts. The single-equation, reduced-form models of employment and income generate impacts that are positive, yet smaller than T-PICS, under the assumption that only a portion of the growth in the counties directly impacted by the highway expansion can be attributed directly to the project itself.
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the longer mileage rural projects. Recommendations that address this finding are articulated in Chapter 4.
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Figure 3.8. W-2: Interstate 405 in Washington State.
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Total Impacts Within Under Within T-PICS Basic Selection Factors Widening, Rocky Mountain/Far West, Metro, Non-Distressed, 22 miles Sliding Scale Settings The slider settings were scaled to reflect the appropriate cost and AADT levels. The Land Use Policies slider was scaled to reflect nearly neutral policies given the zoning and development plans in place at the time of the project's construction.
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primarily because there is an ample number of case studies in the T-PICS database that are similar in nature to the Washington SR-405 test case study project. For example, the T-PICS Case Search function reveals that there are seven T-PICS case studies classified as widening projects (from many geographic areas, not just the Rocky Mountain/Far West)
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• Again, the wages estimate generated TranSight exceeds the estimate generated by TPICS, although not by as large a margin as observed in some of the other examples. Another reason why T-PICS estimate of wages might not be as reliable as the alternative analysis is because T-PICS doesn't adjust for the average wage rate as effectively, due to the limited size of the database.
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Project Description The US-54 widening project, illustrated in Figure 3.10, addressed mobility concerns along a significant carrier of freight traffic in the central United States. The highway stretches in a northeasterly direction from El Paso, Texas toward Chicago, Illinois.
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Total Impacts Over Under Under T-PICS Basic Selection Factors Widening, Southwest, Rural, Distressed, 80 miles Sliding Scale Settings The sliding settings were scaled to reflect the appropriate cost and AADT levels. The remaining three sliders (Land Policies, Infrastructure, and Business Climate)
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or population scarcity) is unlikely to experience much development in the short term.
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Figure 3.12. W-4: Iowa 60/US-75 Le Mars Corridor.
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Mars. North of Le Mars, US-75 exits off the freeway bypass, which continues on as Iowa Highway 60, and turns north.
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The slider settings were scaled to reflect the appropriate cost and AADT levels. The Land Use Policies slider was scaled to reflect supportive policies given the zoning and development plans in place at the time of the project's construction.
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REMI model, on the other hand, does incorporate assumptions about urban/class level factors which may cause their estimates to deviate from those produced by T-PICS. In the case of the Iowa 60/US-75 Le Mars Corridor project, REMI's model recognizes that the market area surrounding this project (northwest Iowa and environs)
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Summary Graphic: Widening Projects (Excluding Appalachia Development Highway System projects) Figure 3.14 shows the comparison for the four test case study widening projects we examined (excluding the four Appalachia Development Highway System projects, which are displayed in Figure 3.16)
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Figure 3.15. W-5: Appalachian Development Highway System (ADHS)
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T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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Figure 3.16. Sliding scale settings ADHS Corridor A/A1.
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Figure 3.17. W-6: Appalachian Development Highway System: Corridor I
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Table 3.8. Comparison Table for Appalachian Development Highway System (ADHS)
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Figure 3.18. Sliding scale settings ADHS Corridor I
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existing T-PICS case studies, can generate results based on outcomes of other projects that are dissimilar in terms of their actual market size. Figure 3.19.
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(as part of the direct route from the cities of Toronto, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh to points south) required the state to reevaluate this plan and upgrade the northern half to four lanes as well.
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favor strong economic viability. Figure 3.20 shows the placement of the settings used to derive the economic impact estimates in My Project Tools.
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Project Analysis: Appalachian Development Highway System, Corridor L • Although the T-PICS estimate exceeds the alternate method for all three economic indicators, the comparison for employment and wages is relatively close. The T-PICS estimate for output, however, is significantly greater than the estimate generated by the REMI model.
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Figure 3.21. W-8: Appalachian Development Highway System (ADHS)
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reflect the existing lack of utilities in place prior to development for much of the project area. The business climate is scaled to about the midpoint between negative and neutral, not due to any policy considerations, but because the region's topography and demographics do not favor strong economic viability.
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Summary Graphic: Widening Projects (Appalachia Development Highway System projects) Figure 3.23 shows the comparison for the four Appalachia Development Highway System widening projects we examined for the Employment economic indicator.
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Bypass Projects Figure 3.24. B-1: Minnesota 371 Little Falls to Brainerd.
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of its southern half. Much of the traffic utilizing the route is Twin Cities–based traffic heading to cabins on one of the many northern lakes.
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T-PICS Basic Selection Factors Bypass, Great Lakes, Rural, Non Distressed, 4 miles Sliding Scale Settings The slider settings were scaled to reflect the appropriate cost and AADT levels. The Land Use Policies slider was scaled to reflect neutral policies given the zoning and development plans in place at the time of the project's construction.
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automatic notification be provided to the user that in those cases in which AADT projections require sliding the AADT slider all the way to the right (above average) the resulting estimate of AADT should clearly indicate that the actual AADT is likely be a greater number than the projection indicated.
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gains would reduce the number of transportation workers, but overall employment would increase slightly as individuals move to the area for the higher quality of living associated with less congestion and quicker commutes. (See the references section for citation.)
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The primary purpose of the Trunk Highway 23 reconstruction project, illustrated in Figure 3.26, was to address the safety, traffic operations, access, design infrastructure, roadway conditions and operational deficiencies identified by Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT)
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Total Impacts Over Over Over Alt. Method 4: Reduced Form Econometric Modeling of Income and Employment Total Impacts 229 range: (-780 to 1,239)
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Figure 3.27. Sliding scale settings US-71/MN-23 Willmar Bypass.
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accurate estimates and a larger confidence band, which includes the possibility of negative impacts on employment and output. • The analysis following project B-1, the MN Trunk Highway 371 Brainerd Bypass, is all relevant for this project as well.
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Figure 3.28. B-3: Iowa 5/US-65 Beltway (Bypass)
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access into Des Moines International Airport. It also connects into freight centers on the eastern side of the city in Altoona, Iowa and Pleasant Hill, Iowa.
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motivation of this project. The designation of project types for highway corridor projects is addressed in recommendation F in Chapter 4 of this report.
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of a bypass of downtown and suburban Des Moines, and some features of a connector between I-35 and I-80. • The T-PICS results generated from this project run align very well with the economic impact estimates generated by the REMI TranSight model run.
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Figure 3.30. Comparison of estimated jobs added in highway corridor projects: bypasses REMI PI+ (EIS)
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Connector Projects Figure 3.31. C-1: Washington State: State Route 509.
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Table 3.14 shows the results of the comparison of the economic impact estimates for the T-PICS model test to our alternative analysis test. Table 3.14.
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Figure 3.32. Sliding scale settings US-71/MN-23 Willmar Bypass Project Analysis: Washington State Route 509 • The economic impact estimates on this project are relatively well aligned, matching on the jobs and output indicators.
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Summary Graphic: Connector Project Figure 3.33 shows the comparison for the connector project (Washington State SR-509) we examined for the Employment economic indicator.
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1. The most fundamental issue related to our findings on the comparison between T-PICs economic impact estimates and those of our alternative methods is that neither T-PICS nor the most sophisticated econometric models are wholly equipped to predict how local transportation conditions specific to a given project will impact the potential economic outcomes with 100% certainty.
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The test case study analysis performed on the Minnesota Trunk Highway 60 expansion project from Windom to Lake Heron is a case in point. A comparison of the Minnesota TH60 test case study project with similar representative projects from the T-PICS database (e.g.
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spillover effect on the local economy than expansion of the manufacturing base would produce. Figure 3.34.
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The improvement project was not built in an area that was in economic distress, measured by local unemployment levels relative to national unemployment levels, and designed to control for the influence of macroeconomic trends on local labor market conditions. The measure is a simple ratio of the local unemployment rate to the corresponding national rate.
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7. As indicated in the project analysis following both of the Minnesota rural bypass projects (Minnesota 371 around Brainerd, and US-71/Minnesota 23 around Willmar)
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Chapter 4: General Evaluation: Suggestions for Consideration Conducting this analysis has afforded us the opportunity to become familiar with the operation of the T-PICS tool. This chapter contains recommendations that address its general functionality and usability and offers recommendations that might be considered for the future development of the tool.
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The developers of the T-PICS tool, the Economic Development Research Group, Inc.
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• Public hearings -- the case studies provide a way of responding to the hopes of proponents and fears of opponents, with information on the range of impacts that have actually occurred in the real world.
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impact models and tools that do measure these added factors affecting the wider economic impacts of projects. (Emphasis added.)
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and features of the universe of candidate projects whose economic potential is to be estimated. In addition, the economic impact estimates generated from the database must correspond to the impacts actually observed in the real world with a satisfactory level of precision.
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common scenarios as possible (those most often using the tool to derive an economic impact estimate) with the lowest case count.
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Along with the notification, the instructions might use the opportunity to solicit proposals for additional case studies of the underrepresented project types, or simply recommend caution in interpreting the results until a sufficient number of case studies in the underrepresented category have been added. NOTE: In an effort to encourage users to add to the T-PICS case study database, an existing tool that could serve as a model is the FHWA's Crash Modification Factors Clearinghouse.
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Every county that is part of an urban area with 50,000 or more inhabitants is classified as part of a "metropolitan area." For this study, each highway-related project setting was classified by the county or group of counties in which the project was located. (Many of the highways covered in the case studies run through multiple counties.)
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length of the project as a proxy for the scale of the economic development that might occur, and yet it is often the case that the economic development generated by the improvement is limited to the segment of the corridor adjacent to an existing development, with infrastructure in place. Recognizing the desire to keep input requirements simple wherever possible, consideration should be given to narrowing and redefining the urban/class level designations.
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Connector C Access Roads Access Limited Access We concluded that this is a more logical and intuitive way to classify projects, reasoning that each of those three level 1 classes has a distinct purpose and spatial characteristic.
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5/US-65 Beltway from W Junction 5/65 to I-80. The common name of the project -- recognized in official plans and other written documents -- contains the word "beltway"; however, in the definition of project types included in the SHRP 2 C03 report, the definition of the various highway corridor project types indicates that this project would be better classified as a bypass as opposed to a beltway.
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for each of the two project type designations is significant. As indicated in Table 4.1, which compares the T-PICS results for the Iowa beltway project -- classified first as a beltway and then as a bypass -- the selection of the appropriate project type is critical.
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project. For the Economic Distress criteria, there is no definition provided that distinguishes between distressed and non-distressed.
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its Region is Great Lakes/Plains, its Urban/Class level is Metro, and its Economic Distress is Distressed Only. As Figure 4.2 illustrates, the My Project Tools module is unable to generate any results because there simply are not sufficient numbers of similar case studies currently populating the database.
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Figure 4.2. Screen shot of T-PICS My Project Tools.
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A second link could reference a new page called "Getting Started with T-PICS" or something similar that provides a more concise step-by-step guide to using the tool intended for the first time user. (The current site includes a link to a page called "T-PICS Quick Start: Advice on Use" which offers a very concise description of both the Case Search and My Project Tools modules, but little in the way of how to go about using the tool for the first time.)
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The AADT projection of a project being run on T-PICS is derived as a function of the regression that incorporates existing T-PICS database projects. Under some circumstances, however, the regression generates an estimate of AADT that will be lower than the actual observed AADT after the project's completion.
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generated for wages and output are functions of the estimated change in employment (jobs) using applicable and local industry ratios, as indicated in the discussion of Table 4.3 in the SHRP 2 C03 report.
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(See Figure 4.5.) Given the limited size of the results table (just four cells tall and four cells wide)
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Reference Otto, Daniel M and Connie Anderson.
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Appendix A: How Variation Between the Test Case Projects and the T-PICS Case Study Projects Can Distort Estimated Impacts As this research has demonstrated, the limited number of case studies in the T-PICS database for each project type can compromise the reliability of the economic impact projections for any proposed project. In other words, only when a number of the T-PICS case study projects are sufficiently similar to the test case project will the results generated by T-PICS be truly representative of the economic impacts that are likely to occur.
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Lakes/Plains region (which includes Minnesota) quickly reduces the number of matching projects to three.
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435 & Hwy 69 Interchange access to I70 MN Project Characteristics State Minnesota Kansas Kansas Minnesota City Saint Cloud Overland Park Hays Bloomington AADT 33,000 80,278 1,701 147,000 Construction Start Date 2003 1995 1994 1985 Construction End Date 2004 1997 1995 1991 Project Cost (millions of 2008 dollars) 7.85 68.38 4.73 263.90 Project Setting Economic Distress 0.81 0.67 1.31 1.11 Population Density 1,960 1,083 30 2,028 Population Growth Rate (%)
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Growth Rate (%) Urban/class level 335,695 797,618 203,159 1,428,278 Airport Travel Distance (miles)
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distress is measured by local unemployment levels relative to national unemployment levels. This is designed to control for the influence of macroeconomic trends on local labor market conditions.
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End Date Project Cost (millions of 2008 dollars) 64.21 84.45 27.44 807.18 313.52 Project Setting Economic Distress 0.81 0.77 0.76 1.41 1.34 Population Density 1,443 1,327 994 17 74 Population Growth Rate (%)
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Appendix B: Opportunity Drive Case Study Survey The survey for the Opportunity Drive case study reached out to all businesses in a one-mile radius of the interchange that could reasonably expect an impact from the construction. (Several small service or farm sector businesses were in the 1-mile radius.
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Respondents' answers to questions on wages were used to do a wage bill adjustment in REMI PI+. After data collection, it was determined that construction and equipment investment should not be used as an input because the goal of the TPICS evaluation was to find economic impact five years after construction of the interchange.
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Objective of Survey This survey will gather qualitative and quantitative data from businesses on the impact of local infrastructure changes. In particular, this survey will seek to ascertain how transportation changes affected employment/wage levels, investment decisions, business operations, property values, and transportation system changes.
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Average wage ($/hr) or wage range(?
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When did these investments occur? (4-digit year ____)
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same down Delivery costs Up same down
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Appendix C: T-PICS Inputs, Sliding Scale Settings, and Results Tables For Each of the 14 Test Case Study Projects Minnesota I-94 Opportunity Drive Interchange T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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Supplier and Wage Impacts 1,389 $44,653 $150,685 Total Impacts 1,889 $80,977 $308,810 Comparison (T-PICS to Alt. Method: Within Range, Under, or Over)
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Iowa 86th Street Interchange T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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Total Impacts Over Over Over T-PICS Basic Selection Factors Interchange, Great Lakes/Plains, Metro, Non-distressed Figure C.2. I-2: Iowa 86th Street Interchange.
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MN TH-60 Expansion from Windom to Heron Lake T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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Washington State Route 405 T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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T-PICS Basic Selection Factors Widening, Rocky Mountain/Far West, Metro, Non-Distressed, 22 miles Figure C.4. W-2: Washington State Route 405.
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New Mexico US-54 T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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Iowa 60/US-75 Le Mars Corridor T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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Factors Figure C.6. W-4: Iowa 60/US-75 Le Mars Corridor.
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T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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Appalachian Development Highway System (ADHS) -- Corridor I From Corridor F (US-119)
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Factors Figure C.8. W-6: Appalachian Development Highway System (ADHS)
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WV to I-79 at Sutton, WV T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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Appalachian Development Highway System (ADHS) -- Corridor P I-80, Near Mackeyville, PA to I-80 near Milton, PA T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000)
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Factors Figure C.10. W-8: Appalachian Development Highway System (ADHS)
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T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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US-71/MN TH-23 Willmar Bypass T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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Alt. Method 4: Reduced Form Econometric Modeling of Income and Employment Total Impacts 229 range: (-780 to 1,239)
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Figure 3.28: Iowa 5/US-65 Beltway (Bypass) from W Junction 5/65 to I-80 T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000)
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T-PICS Basic Selection Factors Bypass, Great Lakes/Plains, Metro, Non-Distressed-only, 14 miles Figure C
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T-PICS Employment Wages ($1,000) Output ($1,000)
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Key Terms
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