Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 5: Preparing State Transportation Agencies for an Uncertain Energy Future (2014) / Chapter Skim
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1 This summary outlines the results of NCHRP Project 20-83(04) , "Effects of Changing Transportation Energy Supplies and Alternative Fuel Sources on Transportation." The study is part of a series of reports funded by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO)
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2telecommunications, changing attitudes toward transportation among younger generations, and the potential advent of autonomous vehicles in future years -- could also affect future travel choices in profound ways. These are beyond the main scope of this study, however, and thus are considered only in passing.
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3 To develop plausible futures for the scenario elements listed in the table, the team first reviewed the literature on future prospects for petroleum-fueled vehicles along with alternatives such as natural gas, biofuels, electricity, and hydrogen. The team also examined past trends and future projections for other factors likely to influence travel demand and mode choice in the coming decades, including population growth, economic growth, and land use.
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4Federal policy scenarios. Current federal energy and climate policies can be viewed as an ad-hoc mix of subsidies and regulations aimed at the not entirely compatible goals of maintaining low energy costs, increasing energy security, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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5 reliance on petroleum, a shift to certain alternative fuels such as coal-generated electricity, growth in passenger and truck travel, and the possible further tightening of air quality standards by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
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6stringent CAFE standards scheduled through 2025, declining fuel-tax revenue can be viewed as highly probable, and any shift to alternative fuels would further erode fuel-tax receipts. While increased construction costs stemming from higher oil prices are less certain, efforts to decrease DOT costs through increased efficiency should be beneficial as well.
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7 Because revenue is the most immediate challenge confronting DOTs, it may be helpful to provide additional commentary on the first four strategies listed as most promising. Increasing fuel-tax rates -- ideally indexing them to account for both inflation and fuel economy gains -- is a promising near-term option that should work well as long as most vehicles rely on petroleum or liquid biofuels.
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8S.6 Tailoring Strategic Plans for State Context States exhibit considerable variation in terms of such factors as size, population density, economic structure, travel patterns, and policy priorities. With that variation in mind, this report closes by suggesting various ways in which states, beginning with the framework outlined previously, can tailor plans to meet their own contextual needs.
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