Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 5: Preparing State Transportation Agencies for an Uncertain Energy Future (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 104-111
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From page 104... ...
104 There were two main challenges to this project. The first was to conduct an analysis to provide states with general guidance on developing robust strategies to address uncertain but possibly significant shifts in transportation energy sources and vehicle technologies in the coming decades.
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From page 105... ...
105 might incorporate the principles of robust decision making in other long-range planning exercises. The final section observes that many of the strategies discussed in this study, including a large share of those described as "most promising," may require enabling legislation, typically at the state level but in some cases at the federal level.
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From page 106... ...
106 each of the mitigation and shaping objectives of interest. In selecting strategies to address a given objective, states would ideally choose at least one strategy rated as having a significantly positive effect (though such strategies may also face higher barriers)
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From page 107... ...
107 In considering whether to adopt higher-risk hedging and shaping strategies, planners may find it helpful to contrast the potential regret of failing to implement a strategy that would have been very useful with the potential regret of implementing a strategy that proves to be either unnecessary or unsuccessful. Relevant factors in this deliberation include the anticipated effects of a strategy in addressing specific mitigation or shaping objectives; the expected performance of a strategy for broader social goals related to the economy, environment and public health, and equity; and the type and degree of barriers associated with a strategy.
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From page 108... ...
Table 9.2. Effectiveness of hedging and shaping strategies for specific objectives.
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From page 109... ...
109 fuels, growth in passenger vehicle travel, and future federal energy and climate policy -- that are either directly or indirectly linked to transportation fuels and vehicle technologies. Second, the research team developed a range of plausible future outcomes for these factors that can be viewed as at least reasonably probable based on current trends and expected interactions with other variables.
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From page 110... ...
110 require enabling state or federal legislation. (Entries shaded in light gray correspond to greater uncertainty.)
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From page 111... ...
111 efficiency, ITSs, TSM&O, TDM, public transportation, and land use -- include at least some policies that state DOTs could implement on their own. Another option would be to select backup strategies that could serve in place of preferred strategies if enabling legislation is not passed.
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