Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 5: Preparing State Transportation Agencies for an Uncertain Energy Future (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 114-124
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114 This appendix reviews the current status of vehicles that run on conventional fuels as well as potential developments that could affect their cost and performance in the future. • Conventional fuels.
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115 A.1.1 Crude Oil Production Crude oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons produced through geologic processes acting on organic matter. Crude oil also contains such trace elements as sulfur, nitrogen, salts, and heavy metals.
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116 produce crude or synthetic crude substitutes. These are tight oil, oil sands, oil shale, and coal.
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117 Despite a dip in the mid-1980s, global oil demand rose from 63.1 mbd in 1980 to a peak of 85.9 mbd in 2007. It subsequently declined to 84.7 mbd in 2009 as a result of the global economic slowdown, then climbed to more than 88 mbd in 2011.
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118 As suggested in the figure, oil and fuel prices are subject to significant volatility -- much more so than for other manufactured goods and services -- due to the inelastic nature of short-run oil supply and demand. Households find it difficult to forgo many trips -- most notably, those to work and school and to purchase necessities.
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119 fuels and vehicle technologies, this could enable petroleumfueled vehicles to maintain their current cost advantage, even with potentially higher gasoline and diesel costs. Over time, automobiles purchased by U.S.
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120 requirement for passenger vehicles (EPA and NHTSA 2012)
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121 the 1990s, and the early 2000s. In recent years, however, with mounting concerns over energy security and climate change, CAFE standards have once again been viewed as an attractive policy tool for improving fuel economy, stimulating an ambitious series of legislative and administrative actions.
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122 estimates of actual, as opposed to EPA-rated, fuel economy. (EPA ratings assume a particular driving profile and are usually higher than actual mileage under realistic driving conditions.)
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123 A.4.1 Future Market Projections Many of the fuel and vehicle experts interviewed during the early stages of the project indicated that a major shift away from petroleum over the next several decades would be unlikely to occur unless the price of petroleum increases significantly. Higher prices for petroleum-based fuels could arise through market forces such as rapidly increasing global demand or through tax policies (e.g., fuel-tax increases, a carbon tax)
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