Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 5: Preparing State Transportation Agencies for an Uncertain Energy Future (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 181-192
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181 One of the more important ways that changes in transportation fuels and vehicle technologies could affect state DOTs is through their effects on vehicle cost and the marginal energy cost of travel, which would in turn influence aggregate volume and mode choice for passenger travel and goods movement. This appendix reviews past trends and future prospects for three additional factors strongly linked to both energy use and travel demand: population growth, economic growth, and land use.
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182 implied rates of U.S. population growth between 2010 and 2050 for the different scenarios range from 0.1% in the zero net-migration case to 1.0% in the highest net-migration case.
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183 generally put prior-year estimates in real dollars (i.e., adjusted for inflation)
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184 developments could possibly lift U.S. economic growth to levels that surpass historical rates.
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185 area easier, and the phenomenon of "white flight" from cities to suburbs following desegregation of urban school systems. While none of these policies or trends was initiated with the specific aim of creating suburbanization, in concert they had that effect.
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186 cities whose growth relied largely on the real estate market itself will retrench, exurban areas with large amounts of singlefamily housing in single-use zoning will evolve into slums, and cities that successfully recentralize and attract knowledge workers will thrive (Myers and Gearin 2001, Leinberger 2008, Florida 2009)
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187 between short-run elasticities (measuring changes that occur within a year or so) and longer-run elasticities (measuring changes that unfold over a few years or more)
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188 and more congested travel conditions can greatly reduce vehicle fuel economy (Barth and Boriboonsomsin 2009)
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189 tives. Some recent research has examined this question, and one study found that neighborhood characteristics are more important predictors of behavior than self-selection (Cao 2009)
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190 With respect to the mixing of land uses, most studies have focused at the neighborhood level, where it is easier to develop suitable metrics. Ewing and Cervero (2001)
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191 Kuntsler, J
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192 U.S. Census Bureau.
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