Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 5: Preparing State Transportation Agencies for an Uncertain Energy Future (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 193-208
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From page 193... ...
193 To support the development of future transportation energy scenarios for this study, the preceding appendix considered past trends and future prospects for several broad socio-economic factors strongly linked to both energy use and travel demand -- namely population, the economy, and land use. At the same time, future policy choices relating to energy, climate, and transportation funding may likewise exert significant influence on future energy and transportation outcomes.
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From page 194... ...
194 Policies involving such trade-offs are almost invariably controversial. In this section are surveyed available policies -- including some that have already been widely implemented and others that have only been discussed -- for promoting the goals of reducing energy cost, promoting energy independence, or reducing GHG emissions.
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195 gas guzzlers attained only 6 or 8 mpg. This shift had been driven at least in part by the availability of relatively inexpensive gasoline during the 1960s and early 1970s.
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196 Another concern is that CAFE standards have not been as effective as possible in reducing the nation's petroleum use, in part because the standards remained largely static between 1985 and the middle of the first decade of the 2000s. Finally, some have examined the question of whether fuel economy might be improved more cost-effectively through other policy options such as increased fuel taxes (e.g., CBO 2003)
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From page 197... ...
197 economy of the purchased vehicles was 24.8 mpg, representing a prospective fuel savings of 36%. Yet analysis by several economists indicated that as a means of reducing GHG emissions, the program was very expensive, costing about $400 to $500 per ton of CO2 equivalent emissions (Knittel 2009)
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198 Parry 2007)
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199 rate, it takes 88.5 gallons to produce a metric ton of emissions. To estimate how a tax on greenhouse gas emissions could affect the per-mile cost of driving a gasoline-powered vehicle, then, one simply calculates the cost of emissions (in $/metric ton per CO2 equivalent)
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200 investment policies in the United States over much of the past century. It then looks at more recent shifts in highway and transit funding over the past several decades.
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201 gradually broadened the set of revenue sources for funding surface transportation. In addition to excise taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel, for example, the HTF receives funding from taxes on the sale of trucks, trailers, and truck tires, along with an annual heavy-vehicle use fee for trucks.
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From page 202... ...
202 In just the past few years, real revenue per VMT has rebounded somewhat due to both a decrease in VMT and a rapid increase in nominal revenue, but these outcomes may prove ephemeral. The recent decline in VMT reflects actual reductions in travel based on spiking fuel prices followed by the deep recession as well as a change in the way that the FHWA computes VMT (per notes provided with ORNL 2012, Table 3.7)
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From page 203... ...
203 early 1900s and were largely reliant on fare-box revenue to fund capital investments and operations. Following World War II, however, as automobile ownership accelerated and the relative attractiveness of transit deteriorated, privately provided transit services became less viable.
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From page 204... ...
204 recently estimated that as much as 25% of HTF funds may be allocated to projects not directly related to highway and bridge capacity, maintenance, operations, and safety. Setting aside debates over the merits of such projects, Poole and Moore argue that the diversion of fuel-tax revenue for other modes has made it more difficult to secure the support of road user groups for increasing federal fuel taxes to keep pace with inflation and total vehicle travel.
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205 and do not promote economically efficient use of the system (Wachs 2003)
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206 case. While such taxes will reduce the demand for oil, in turn putting downward pressure on the underlying price, the addition of the taxes has the net effect of increasing prices for end users.
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From page 207... ...
207 or by limiting capacity expansion -- include carbon pricing, reducing overall transportation investment, devoting a greater percentage of transportation funds to support transit rather than roads, and relying to a greater extent on fuel taxes, tolls, or MBUFs to raise highway revenue. The effect of renewable fuel standards remains unclear and will ultimately depend on whether biofuels can be produced at lower cost than fossil fuels.
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