Strategic Issues Facing Transportation, Volume 5: Preparing State Transportation Agencies for an Uncertain Energy Future (2014) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 90-103
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From page 90... ...
90 Based on the background research conducted for this study, Chapter 5 described plausible transportation energy futures for the 2040 to 2060 time frame. Chapter 6 then discussed potential challenges for state DOTs that could emerge or intensify with some of the plausible futures.
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91 of plausible futures and then shifts the focus from developing optimal plans to identifying robust plans -- that is, policy choices that can be expected to perform at least reasonably well regardless of how the future unfolds. Key RDM constructs aimed at facilitating more robust plans are: • Shaping strategies.
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92 on the assessment of the specific strengths and limitations of the possible strategies, as summarized in the preceding chapter, this stage of the analysis involved two steps: (1) identifying candidate strategies for each objective, and (2)
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93 strategies and do not perform as well for most policy goals of interest. For example, funding highways from general revenue is rated as a fallback alternative to various forms of user fees.
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94 and of similar tables for other objectives presented later, is that strategies are listed in the left column and grouped by ranking -- most promising, optional with higher benefits and higher barriers, optional with lower benefits and lower barriers, and fallback. The logic for the rankings is described later in the discussion of the tables.
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From page 95... ...
95 derive value from transportation improvements in an equitable manner, offer another complementary strategy. Policies to improve the efficiency of state DOT operations are likewise generally advisable, though care should be taken to mitigate any equity concerns associated with certain efficiency options (most notably the loss of employee benefits that can occur with some outsourcing decisions)
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96 • Fuel prices remain stable even as vehicles, due to CAFE standards, achieve higher fuel economy, resulting in lower driving costs. • Alternate fuel and vehicle technologies that offer low energy cost for driving, such as electric vehicles or natural gas, achieve significant market share.
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97 8.4 Strategies to Improve Traffic Safety Travel in the United States is safer than in many countries, but the numbers of crashes and fatalities on the nation's road network are still dismayingly large. Aggressive steps to improve traffic safety are already underway.
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98 more-stringent air quality standards, for example, making it more difficult for states to achieve compliance. Alternatively, shifting attitudes on climate -- possibly in response to new information or events such as greater frequency of severe storms, floods, fires, or droughts with mounting economic costs -- could stimulate efforts to mitigate carbon emissions in states where this policy goal is not currently prioritized.
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From page 99... ...
99 improved efficiency -- is to reduce air pollution around ports and major trade corridors as a matter of environmental justice. TDM, in turn, offers a reasonably low-cost approach to facilitating a shift from solo-occupancy driving to lowercarbon travel options such as ridesharing, vanpooling, and telecommuting.
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From page 100... ...
100 they are likely be needed. Examples of the types of signposts that states might rely on to trigger efforts to improve alternative travel options are: • Increases in the price of oil outpace fuel economy gains, and lower-cost alternative fuels and vehicle technologies fail to emerge, leading to higher energy costs for vehicle travel.
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101 In this study, however, the utility of shaping actions is more complicated. To begin with, the role of a single state in shaping future energy use and technology adoption -- factors that will be influenced by major national and international policy frameworks, private and public investment choices, and unpredictable technology advances -- is likely limited.
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From page 102... ...
102 in promoting a more sustainable energy future, though the barriers are correspondingly low. 8.8 Integration of Robust Strategies The preceding sections presented and ranked strategies for a series of mitigation and shaping objectives.
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From page 103... ...
103 of strategies to better meet their own needs. The next chapter considers a variety of ways in which states can adapt the framework as part of the planning process.
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