Development of a Runway Veer-Off Location Distribution Risk Assessment and Reporting Template (2014) / Chapter Skim
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16 Modeling Veer-Off Risk General Approach Enhanced lateral runway excursion risk location models that reflect how RSA configuration and the presence of obstacles or unprepared terrain may impact veer-off risk are presented in this chapter. The enhanced location models are integrated to a three-part modeling approach.
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17 every distance required under International Organization for Standardization (ISO) conditions (sea level, 15 degrees centigrade)
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18 where Model Parameter Ref/Unit Comment/Descrip on Equipment Class Ref: C Large jet of maximum takeoff weight (MTOW)
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19 in Table 6. The average incident rates are based on the number of accidents and incidents, and the total traffic of relevant operations from 1982 to 2009.
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20 the pathway. Clue indications in the narrative included such things as: • Runway lights and signs struck by the aircraft; • Speed when aircraft departed the runway; • Specific airfield components referenced (e.g., crossing of specific taxiways)
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21 Figure 11. Runway veer-off distances -- LStop LMax.
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22 of the longitudinal distances to a reference length, as described below. The runway length was divided into 10 subareas and the location of each subarea is a function of the specific normalization procedure used, as follows: • Alternative 1: Normalization for RDA: -- actual longitudinal distances characterizing the veer-off pathway were divided by the runway distance available for each event.
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23 • Conduct normalization for longitudinal veer-off distances; • Identify which subareas were challenged by each event; • Estimate the lateral deviation in each subarea challenged by each veer-off event; • Repeat the process for each veer-off event and count the number of times that each subarea was challenged by all events to calculate the percentage of occurrences in each subarea; • Using the lateral deviation values estimated for each subarea, develop mathematical models to estimate the probability that an aircraft exceeds a certain lateral deviation during the veer-off event in the specific subarea; • Based on the probability that aircraft may challenge each subarea, develop cumulative probability curves for longitudinal distances covered during the veer-off event; and • Develop risk contour curves based on the subarea probabilities and the lateral deviation models for each subarea. It is important to note that the modeling effort presented in ensuing sections was developed based on the assumption that aircraft has an equal chance to veer off to the right or to the left side of the runway.
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24 55 99 146 145 146 105 77 59 54 44 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 N um be r o f C ha lle ng es Subarea Figure 17. Longitudinal probability distribution -- both LDVOs and TOVOs -- distances normalized by RDA.
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25 runway distance available were developed. The model integrating both LDVOs and TOVOs is illustrated in Figure 20.
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26 35% 25% 10% 5% 2.5% 35% 25% 10% 5% 2.5% -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 D ev ia ti on D is ta nc e fr om R un w ay E dg e (ft ) Subarea Normalized for Runway Distance Available Direction of Operation Left Right Figure 21.
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27 Veer-Off Consequences Approach Using both the lateral deviation models for individual subareas in combination with the cumulative probability model for the longitudinal distance, it is possible to evaluate the risk that an aircraft strikes an obstacle during the veer-off. However, the risk of accidents during veer-offs is not always associated with the aircraft collision with an obstacle.
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28 Figure 24 summarizes the data for accidents/incidents for which records contained a veer-off path. This figure indicates aircraft damage frequencies and if the damage occurred on or off the runway.
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29 The next step in the modeling approach is illustrated in Figure 28. In this figure (not to scale)
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30 models and the tip of the wing. A collision is assumed when the aircraft wingtip or any part of the aircraft strikes the obstacle.
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