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From page 6... ... 6This section provides an overview of the traditional formal process used by most organizations to create scenarios. We also provide several examples of how this was used and the resulting scenarios. Read the entire page →
From page 7... ... Scenario Development 7 TAIDA: Tracking (1) , Analyzing (2 to 5) Read the entire page →
From page 8... ... 8 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment In most cases, these scenarios are developed in an iterative fashion. The initial scenarios are tested in small groups for plausibility, consistency, and so forth and are continually tweaked until they represent a full set of potential futures from which to work. Read the entire page →
From page 9... ... Scenario Development 9 and the like, four scenarios were developed to answer the focal question: "What is the future of UPS's world market and major regional markets in 2017? " The two driving forces forming the backbone of the scenarios were (1) Read the entire page →
From page 10... ... 10 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment the local factors on the focal issue and assessed the relationship between driving forces and local factors. This data was used to estimate the effect of driving forces on the focal issue. Read the entire page →
From page 11... ... Scenario Development 11 2.4 FFF versus Traditional Scenario Development The process used to develop the four FFF scenarios for this project had similarities and differences as compared to more traditional scenario planning engagements, such as the examples in the previous section. The basic eight step process as outlined in Section 2.1 was followed. Read the entire page →
From page 12... ... 12 Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment The results of these 12 analyses were analyzed and translated into 20 more detailed Driving Forces. The Driving Forces were incorporated into a survey that was distributed to a large set of freight stakeholders for further prioritization. Read the entire page →
From page 13... ... Scenario Development 13 The symposium opened with a restatement of the objective of the project as a whole and of the two-day symposium in particular. Additionally, the attendees were introduced to the concept of flow impacts. Read the entire page →
From page 14... ... 14 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment demand. There was strong flow volume impact as the number of containers moved through the United States increased dramatically. Read the entire page →
From page 15... ... Scenario Development 15 groups and assigned two snapshot scenarios. Each team, facilitated by an MIT researcher, worked through a series of five tasks, as follows: • Definition -- the facilitator makes sure the team understands the Snapshot Scenario they are assigned. Read the entire page →
From page 16... ... 16 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Note: The yellow circles to the right of each section contain the number of minutes each section is expected to take. Figure 4. Read the entire page →
From page 17... ... Scenario Development 17 The objective of the survey was to prioritize the set of driving forces and critical uncertainties that were generated by our industry experts. A wider net was thrown to incorporate a larger set of perspectives. Read the entire page →
From page 18... ... 18 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Group Number: 1 Shipper Carrier 3PL Gov. Read the entire page →
From page 19... ... Scenario Development 19 The survey instrument was completed and sent out in April 2010. A total of 264 complete and usable responses were collected from professionals across multiple industries and backgrounds. Read the entire page →
From page 20... ... 20 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment scenarios were formulated as end states rather than trends. Indeed, our experience proves that people react better to a description of what the future may look like rather than a simple direction it may take. Read the entire page →
From page 21... ... Scenario Development 21 2.6.1.8 Increase in Sustainability Regulations Several layers of all-encompassing regulations at the international, federal, and state levels are enacted. These regulations cover at varying degrees social responsibility, environmental emissions, resource usage, and trade practices. Read the entire page →
From page 22... ... 22 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0-2yr 2-5yr 5-10yr 10-20yr 20-40yr Steady Growth Rapid Growth Peak & Crest Flat 0% In flu en ce o n Fu tu re F re ig ht F lo w s Figure 8. Types of influence curves. Read the entire page →
From page 23... ... Scenario Development 23 Note from Table 1 that the scenarios were a mix of social, technology, economic, environmental, and political forces. The flow impact and the influence type ratings were culled from the workshop responses. Read the entire page →
From page 24... ... 24 Scenario Planning for Freight transportation infrastructure investment Driving Force Description l a i c o S y g o l o n h c e T Ec on om ic En vi ro nm en ta l l a c i t i l o P o u rc in g S s n o i t a n i t s e D g n i t u o R e m u l o V y t i s n e D e u l a V Re - domestication of manufacturing Substantial re-domestication of manufacturing back to the United States X X X X X Reduction in global trade Sustained reduction in global trade volume (both imports and exports) possibly due to rise of protectionism, pandemics, etc. Read the entire page →
From page 25... ... Scenario Development 25 The full distributions and plots of the probability versus the impact for each driving force are shown in Figures 12 to 16. Further analysis of the driving forces did not reveal any significant correlations in the rating of probability and impact to background (shipper, carrier, government, etc.) Read the entire page →
From page 26... ... 26 Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment Impact of Driving Force Probability of Driving Force Driving Force A ve ra ge V al ue St an da rd D ev ia tio n Co ef fic ie nt o f V ar ia tio n A ve ra ge R an k St an da rd D ev ia tio n Ra nk Co ef fic ie nt o f V ar ia tio n Ra nk A ve ra ge V al ue St an da rd Co ef fic ie nt o f V ar ia tio n A ve ra ge R an k St an da rd D ev ia tio n Ra nk Co ef fic ie nt o f V ar ia tio n Ra nk Re-domestication of manufacturing 3.63 1.23 0.34 6 8 8 2.20 0.78 0.36 18 3 12 Reduction in global trade 3.70 1.23 0.33 4 9 7 2.20 0.84 0.38 19 7 17 Increased security threats 3.68 0.95 0.26 5 4 3 3.19 1.08 0.34 7 16 10 Green regulations 3.73 0.89 0.24 3 2 2 3.20 0.93 0.29 6 9 4 High and volatile fuel prices 4.44 0.67 0.15 1 1 1 3.94 0.83 0.21 1 6 1 Rise of BRIC markets 3.43 1.24 0.36 8 11 11 3.10 1.09 0.35 9 17 11 Low-cost batch manufacturing 3.22 1.31 0.41 14 15 13 2.79 1.04 0.37 12 12 15 Online retailing 3.26 1.54 0.47 12 18 16 3.21 1.07 0.33 4 15 9 "Senseable" networks 3.74 1.02 0.27 2 6 4 3.36 1.20 0.36 3 19 13 Recycling regulations 3.35 0.99 0.30 10 5 6 3.20 0.99 0.31 5 10 6 Average age of 100 3.05 1.30 0.43 15 14 15 2.39 1.27 0.53 17 20 20 East Coast ports 3.02 1.27 0.42 16 12 14 2.63 0.83 0.31 15 5 7 New agriculture powerhouses 2.62 1.64 0.63 20 20 20 2.54 0.80 0.32 16 4 8 Water scarcity 2.92 1.57 0.54 18 19 18 2.80 1.04 0.37 11 14 14 Green customer demand 3.32 0.95 0.29 11 3 5 2.71 1.04 0.38 13 13 18 Mega cities 3.24 1.14 0.35 13 7 10 2.91 1.11 0.38 10 18 16 Zero immigration 2.72 1.50 0.55 19 17 19 1.58 0.70 0.44 20 1 19 Battery vehicles 2.93 1.39 0.48 17 16 17 3.43 1.00 0.29 2 11 5 Commodity price volatility 3.53 1.24 0.35 7 10 9 3.11 0.86 0.28 8 8 2 Increased value density 3.38 1.28 0.38 9 13 12 2.65 0.75 0.28 14 2 3 D ev ia tio n Table 4. Stakeholders survey summary of impact/probability rankings. Read the entire page →
From page 27... ... Scenario Development 27 Social Environ. Economic Technology Political Figure 11. Read the entire page →
From page 28... ... 28 Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment Figure 12. Histogram of candidate driving forces (part 1 of 5) Read the entire page →
From page 29... ... Scenario Development 29 Figure 13. Histogram of candidate driving forces (part 2 of 5) Read the entire page →
From page 30... ... 30 Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment Figure 14. Histogram of candidate driving forces (part 3 of 5) Read the entire page →
From page 31... ... Scenario Development 31 Figure 15. Histogram of candidate driving forces (part 4 of 5) Read the entire page →
From page 32... ... 32 Scenario Planning for Freight Transportation Infrastructure Investment Figure 16. Histogram of candidate driving forces (part 5 of 5) Read the entire page →
From page 33... ... Scenario Development 33 2.7.3 Summary of Scenario Logic Out of the analysis, several key elements arose. These helped to determine which forces and uncertainties should be used to define the scenarios, which to feather in, and which to ignore. Read the entire page →

From page 6...

... 6This section provides an overview of the traditional formal process used by most organizations to create scenarios. We also provide several examples of how this was used and the resulting scenarios.