Guide for the Process of Managing Risk on Rapid Renewal Projects (2012) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 228-239
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From page 228... ...
226 A hypothetical case study has been developed and used throughout the guide to adequately illustrate the various steps of the risk management process. These steps (each related to a chapter in the guide)
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227 GUIDE FOR THE PROCESS OF MANAGING RISK ON RAPID RENEWAL PROJECTS HYPOTHETICAL RAPID RENEWAL CASE STUDY QDOT RAPID RENEWAL PROJECT QDOT is planning to reconstruct and expand segments of two existing (intersecting) highways, US-555 and SH-111, through a rapidly developing suburban area.
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228 GUIDE FOR THE PROCESS OF MANAGING RISK ON RAPID RENEWAL PROJECTS STRUCTURING QDOT PROJECT FOR RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT Following the principles outlined in Chapter 4 and as documented in Section 2 of the RMP (see Appendix E)
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229 GUIDE FOR THE PROCESS OF MANAGING RISK ON RAPID RENEWAL PROJECTS analysis was conducted, for which uncertainties in and correlations among the base costs, schedule, and disruption estimates were assessed (see RMP Addendum X in Appendix E)
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230 GUIDE FOR THE PROCESS OF MANAGING RISK ON RAPID RENEWAL PROJECTS RISK IDENTIFICATION FOR QDOT PROJECT Following the principles and process outlined in Chapter 5 and as documented in Section 3 of the RMP in Appendix E, the facilitated combined group of key project team staff and independent subject-matter experts identified, categorized, and documented in the project risk register nearly 60 current risks and opportunities (relative to the base) with potential cost, schedule, and/or disruption impacts (see Table D.1)
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231 GUIDE FOR THE PROCESS OF MANAGING RISK ON RAPID RENEWAL PROJECTS TABLE D.2. RISK FACTOR RATING SCALE DEFINITIONS FOR QDOT US-555/SH-111 PROJECT • The severity of combined impacts (considering the probability of occurrence and trade-offs)
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232 GUIDE FOR THE PROCESS OF MANAGING RISK ON RAPID RENEWAL PROJECTS TABLE D.3. UNMITIGATED RISK FACTOR ASSESSMENTS FOR SELECT RAPID RENEWAL RISKS FOR QDOT US-555/ SH-111 PROJECT Project Phase Example Risk or Opportunity Probability of Occurrence Mean Value or Ratingsa to Affected Activity Mean Cost Change if Occurs Mean Duration Change if Occurs Mean Disruption Change if Occurs Preliminary design/ environmental process PD13.
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233 GUIDE FOR THE PROCESS OF MANAGING RISK ON RAPID RENEWAL PROJECTS RISK ANALYSIS FOR QDOT PROJECT QDOT used the mean base and unmitigated risk assessments to determine (using the Microsoft Excel workbook template) the approximate mean unmitigated project performance (i.e., schedule, uninflated and inflated cost, and disruption, both total for the project and by project activity)
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234 GUIDE FOR THE PROCESS OF MANAGING RISK ON RAPID RENEWAL PROJECTS • A more sophisticated, probabilistic (via Monte Carlo simulation) integrated cost and schedule model was developed to represent the more detailed flowchart and implemented with the more refined unmitigated base and risk assessments.
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235 GUIDE FOR THE PROCESS OF MANAGING RISK ON RAPID RENEWAL PROJECTS QDOT first focused on identifying cost-effective actions for the highest-rated (i.e., highest-priority) risks, considering synergy among risk management actions as appropriate.
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236 GUIDE FOR THE PROCESS OF MANAGING RISK ON RAPID RENEWAL PROJECTS QDOT then determined the revised base and residual risks (assuming the selected risk reduction actions were actually implemented) , from which they determined approximate mitigated mean project performance (i.e., for completion date and escalated cost)
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237 GUIDE FOR THE PROCESS OF MANAGING RISK ON RAPID RENEWAL PROJECTS occurrences as needed) and releasing excess contingency (when no longer needed)
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