Addressing Uncertainty about Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making (2012) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 122-129
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128 This appendix summarizes research identifying, describing, and evaluating methodologies for recognizing and accommodating unforeseen events and developments in plans that rely on airport activity level forecasts. The research involved a combination of a literature review and sourcing information from airport planners, managers, and other industry experts.
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129 • Reduce the uncertainty in the system; • Increase system robustness; and • Incorporate flexibility into the system (de Neufville, 2004)
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130 5. The implementation step involves the continual management and adjustment of the plan based on the signposts and triggers set out in step 4.
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131 As such, options are particularly useful in risky situations (de Neufville and Odoni, 2003)
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132 Real options can also be applied to the mix of traffic as well as its volume. ACRP Report 25 describes the use of swing gates and space -- a system of movable walls and internal passageways allowing gates to be switched between domestic and international traffic, on a day-to-day basis [or to switch between different types of international traffic (e.g., U.S.
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133 available. By contrast, in real options are more equivalent to the staged investment and option to switch defined by Trigeorgis (1996)
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134 The NPV is calculated using the following formula: NPV= F r n n t n 10 +( ) =∑ Where r is defined as the discount rate, n is the number of periods, and Fn determines the revenue in each period.
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135 Thereby, the design that maximizes the NPV serves as a base case against which other flexible solutions are compared.
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