Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan (2013) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 13-31
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From page 13... ...
11 STRATEGIC VISION FOR MOVING FORWARD The SHRP 2 C20 research effort culminated in the development of 13 research areas, described in this strategic plan as sample research initiatives. Collectively, these sample research initiatives constitute a programmatic approach for systematically improving freight modeling and data availability and forecasting and planning tools.
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12 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN TABLE 5.1. SAMPLE RESEARCH INITIATIVE Sample Research Initiativesa… Research Dimensions Strategic Objectives Knowledge Models Data 1.
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13 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN recommendations for potential research to help move this process forward, but many of these are likely to change based on funding sources, industry needs, and developments that spring from some of the other elements of the Strategic Plan (e.g., the GFRC and future data and modeling symposia)
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14 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN 2. Over time, developing, piloting, and evaluating comprehensive knowledge transfer subject matter and media.
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15 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN (3 to 10 years from original forecast) results.
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16 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN Benefits and Expected Outcomes • Provide a much-needed understanding of the discrete segments of the freight transport community, including shippers, carriers, customers, and other elements of the supply chain; • Help public sector agencies gain a better understanding of the impacts policy decisions have on individual freight transport segments; • Develop a well-rounded and representative understanding of freight movement that does not generalize or assume that freight movement activity is similar across different industry sectors; • Provide insight on service availability, pricing, and reliability as performance measures for different industry sectors; and • Develop improved understanding of intermodal freight movement. SAMPLE RESEARCH INITIATIVE D Develop methods that predict mode shift and highway capacity implications of various what-if scenarios.
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From page 19... ...
17 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN Benefits and Expected Outcomes • A tool provided for public agencies and private entities that can help determine unforeseen effects caused by a variety of factors facing the freight community on a regular basis; • An opportunity for public agencies to consider the impacts associated with infrastructure investments (or lack of investments) and also to create realistic contingency plans; • A better understanding gained by public sector agencies of the impacts that policy and infrastructure investment decisions may have on individual elements of the freight transportation system or geographic regions; • Similar to Sample Research Initiative C, improved insight on service availability, pricing, and reliability as performance measures for different industry sectors; and • An improved understanding of freight movement and the role of intermodal transfers and service providers (including less-than-truckload carriers and third-party and fourth-party logistics providers)
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18 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN • Approaches to combine this information with data that are readily available on a broader geographic scale through existing industry sources in order to create planning and forecasting processes for up to four geographic scales. Sample Research Initiative E is similar to Sample Research Initiative C and will build on that research effort.
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19 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN Benefits and Expected Outcomes • Document current freight planning and forecasting practices for different geographic levels, along with ongoing research related to potential enhancements of these practices; • Provide a detailed view of freight planning and forecasting considerations for different geographic levels; • Link enhanced data resources from Sample Research Initiative B to new or enhanced forecasting methods for different geographic levels; • Develop new tools for linking disparate data resources not traditionally used for freight planning and forecasting; • Establish a correlation between or supplement to local data (including nontraditional data) and commodity flow data available for broad geographic scales, including national data sources such as FAF and Transearch; and • Develop methods for nesting local freight planning data and tools into those that are used for larger scales (i.e., developing local tools that function as subsets of national tools and data resources)
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20 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN Benefits and Expected Outcomes • Identify nontraditional components necessary for a comprehensive, holistic cost– benefit analysis; • Document and include external benefits and costs in infrastructure investment decisions; and • Garner support from a range of stakeholders, including those not directly involved in transportation, in the planning and decision-making processes for major transportation investments. SAMPLE RESEARCH INITIATIVE G Establish analytic approaches that describe how elements of the freight transportation system operate and perform and how they affect the larger overall transportation system.
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21 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN The research as it relates to the second and fourth items above will build on some of the temporal freight data documented extensively in Chapter 3 of NCFRP Report 8: Freight-Demand Modeling to Support Public-Sector Decision Making (Cambridge Systematics and GeoStats 2010)
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22 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN • Provision of a means to enhance public–private mutual understanding and collaboration for freight planning and analysis; • Support to develop meaningful transportation system performance measures; • Development of common metrics to use for freight planning and modeling for similar geographic scales (when applicable) ; • Improved means to understand the intermodal freight movement; and • Enhanced means to understand reliability as a performance measure for freight movement.
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23 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN Benefits and Expected Outcomes • Establish correlating coefficients and analytic tools that can be applied to regional and state transportation plan development; • Enhance existing econometric models to reflect additional factors that drive freight transportation demand; • Provide supporting data to enhance cost–benefit analysis tools for infrastructure investment decision making; and • Support more robust analyses of alternative investment scenarios by including economic development and land use considerations. SAMPLE RESEARCH INITIATIVE I Develop freight data resources for application at subregional levels.
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24 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN Transearch) to address gaps in data and enhance or supplement these data sources to support analytic tools on smaller geographic scales; • In conjunction with the efforts described for Sample Research Initiative J, provide guidance to all states and local jurisdictions on acceptable data formats that will facilitate incorporation into local freight models and allow for transferability of data across institutional and jurisdictional boundaries; • Establish methods for local agencies to fill gaps in data and create placeholders for freight data that they may not collect currently but plan to incorporate in future freight forecasting methods; and • Improve the understanding of local freight activity that is not captured accurately in national and regional data sets (including local distribution, touring, and intermodal transfers)
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25 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN three-tiered approach (single application, intermediate, and holistic) for developing a national freight data architecture.
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26 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN This research will build on ongoing developments in GPS tracking and asset management for truck fleets, along with existing weigh-in-motion, permit, and routing data. Collaboration with private industry for vehicle configuration and weight data (when possible)
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27 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN interim short-term improvements in place of costly long-term investments, and conditional approvals. NCHRP Report 594: Guidebook for Integrating Freight into Transportation Planning and Project Selection Processes (Cambridge Systematics et al.
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28 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN • Provide a detailed view of operational, rolling stock, and supply chain decisions that may change on a short-term basis to reflect private sector needs; • Document potential inefficiencies in the freight transportation system related to the disparate decision-making cycles of the public and private sectors; and • Develop potential approaches through which public agencies can implement short-term or interim measures to reflect the changing, dynamic needs of the private sector. SAMPLE RESEARCH INITIATIVE M Develop visualization tools for freight planning and modeling through a two-pronged approach of discovery and addressing known decision-making needs.
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29 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN • Apply visualization tools and techniques systematically across other appropriate research initiatives in this effort to enhance their effectiveness and promote unconventional thinking; • Use visualization as a common language to promote a greater understanding and more productive dialogue among modelers, planners, researchers, the private sector, and other stakeholders; and • Incorporate visualization techniques to evaluate innovative freight demand models.
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