Practitioners Guide to Incorporating Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Collaborative Decision-Making Process (2012) / Chapter Skim
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From page 89... ...
87 INTRODUCTION This appendix provides detailed reference material related to the consideration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in transportation planning and project development.
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From page 90... ...
88 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS FEDERAL AND STATE REQUIREMENTS AND GUIDANCE FOR GHG CONSIDERATION IN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING Federal Guidance on GHGs in Statewide and Metropolitan Planning As of January 2011, there is no federal guidance on considering GHG emissions in the statewide and metropolitan transportation planning processes. The most recent surface transportation–authorizing legislation, the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU)
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89 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS The CEQ guidance references several methodologies for quantifying both emissions and carbon sequestration. With regard to mitigation, the proposed guidance says, "CEQ proposes that the agency should also consider mitigation measures and reasonable alternatives to reduce action-related GHG emissions," and further, "agencies should evaluate GHG emissions associated with energy use and mitigation opportunities and use this as a point of comparison between reasonable alternatives." Several other provisions are of interest to transportation practitioners.
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90 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS are important; that is, where emissions are released is as important as how much. Thus, emissions control measures are governed by local concentrations of different pollutants.
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91 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS The New York State Energy Plan requires MPOs to conduct a GHG analysis of their transportation plans, although it does not require them to meet any reduction targets (Volpe National Transportation Center 2009)
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92 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS emission factor model, EMFAC. California defines GHGs to include the six Kyoto Protocol gases: CO2, methane (CH4)
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93 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS type of emission. For quantitative analyses, WSDOT recommends the use of EPA's MOVES model for operations emissions and the Energy Discipline Report for construction emissions (CH2M HILL 2009)
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94 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS market share of light-duty trucks, which grew from about one-fifth of new vehicle sales in the 1970s to slightly more than half of the market by 2004. The trends of increasing VMT and declining fuel efficiency have reversed themselves, at least temporarily, in recent years.
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95 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS difference is greater in the industrial sector, which is why the AEO forecasts show the transportation sector having higher CO2 emissions than the industrial sector in both the present and future years. The reference case projection considers the effects of LDV fuel economy standards through model year 2016 and the Renewable Fuel Standard 2 adopted in 2010, but not the effects of any post-2016 fuel economy requirements or proposed efficiency requirements for heavy-duty vehicles.
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96 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS as how increases in industrial output increase heavy-duty vehicle (truck) activity, as well as rail, marine, and air transport activity.
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97 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS As discussed above, it is likely that the AEO forecasts overstate future GHG emissions, at least for LDVs. If VMT growth slows below 1.5% annually and vehicle efficiency standards continue to be increased beyond requirements that currently extend through model year 2016, emissions from LDVs will decrease in the future.
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98 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Figure A.6. Contribution to GHG emissions, freight modes.
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99 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Perhaps of greatest interest in freight-related GHG emissions is that emissions from heavy-duty trucks have increased rapidly since 1990, growing at three times the rate of LDV emissions. This increase is the product of decreasing fuel efficiency (per ton-mile carried)
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100 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS TABLE A.2. CONTEXT FACTORS THAT COULD INFLUENCE GHG EMISSIONS AND SURFACE TRANSPORTATION ENERGY USE Factor Category Factor Influence Transportation costs and pricing • Congestion pricing • Parking pricing • User fees (e.g., gas taxes, VMT fees, and excise taxes)
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101 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Factor Category Factor Influence Land use and urban form • Urban and rural land use patterns • Developing megaregions • Continuing and emerging challenges in rural and nonmetropolitan areas • Quality of schools as it affects locational choices • Crime and security as they affect locational choices • Comparative cost of housing and other services in different land use settings • Comparative fiscal and economic conditions in different local jurisdictions and statewide A Operational efficiency of drivers and system managers • Congestion • Intelligent transportation systems • Eco-driving and other driving behaviors • Speed (speed limits, speed enforcement, design speeds, flow management, traffic signal timing and synchronization, and use of roundabouts) • Freight routing, border-crossing procedures for freight, urban freight consolidation centers, urban goods movement policies, and other freight logistics S, A Passenger and truck VMT • Magnitude and type of costs and pricing for transportation use (e.g., cost of fuel, cost of vehicles, and user fees)
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102 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Population and Economic Growth Forecasts The U.S. Bureau of the Census releases national population forecasts every 4 years using the cohort-component method, which is based on assumptions about future births, deaths, and net international migration.
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103 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS trade corridors (Cambridge Systematics et al.
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104 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS In addition to the shift to unconventional vehicle technologies, the AEO reference case shows a shift in the LDV sales mix between cars and light trucks. Driven by rising fuel prices and the cost of corporate average fuel economy (CAFE)
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105 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Trends in System Operations and Operational Efficiency of Drivers As gas tax revenues fall and the Highway Trust Fund realizes severe shortfalls, state and local agencies are facing significant budget constraints that affect their ability to operate the transportation system. This fiscal stress, along with constrained rightof-way, community impacts, and environmental concerns, limits expansions of the transportation system and maintenance and operational investments in the existing system.
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106 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS travel costs (such as congestion pricing) are not believed to result in additional travel demand, and could actually have a slight suppressing effect.
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107 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS more frequently in the future and that these efforts will have a positive benefit on GHG emissions reduction. However, the overall impact on GHG emissions will vary greatly by how much the efforts really affect driving behavior in the longer term.
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108 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS The impact of any of these alternative fuels on transportation GHG emissions will range from modest to quite significant, depending on the fuel and how it is produced. Figure A.8 shows relative GHG emissions, including full fuel-cycle emissions, for a variety of transportation fuels; the estimations shown are based on the Department of Energy's Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET)
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109 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Potential Federal GHG Reduction Policy Initiatives A variety of policy actions have been proposed at the federal level to reduce GHG emissions from all sectors, including transportation. The federal climate change policy landscape is likely to evolve significantly over the next few years depending on what actions are taken on transportation reauthorization, as well as energy and/or climate change legislation and regulation.
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110 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS obtained through pricing may be reinvested in GHG reduction programs, including transportation programs. The last category of federal policy actions focuses specifically on the programs implemented by transportation agencies.
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111 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS A listing of strategies, and a definition or description of each, is provided in Table A.3. Inclusion of the type of strategy or project in this table does not guarantee that it will reduce GHG emissions; the GHG impacts of any given strategy or project must be evaluated based on local conditions and data.
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112 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Strategy Definition or Description Speed management Reduced speed limits on high-speed facilities, including the Interstate system, other limited-access highways, and high-speed rural major arterials, to no more than 55 or 60 mph; and/or greater enforcement of existing speed limits. Truck and bus idle reduction Education, laws, and/or incentives to introduce technology (such as electrical hookups at truck stops or on-board auxiliary power supplies)
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113 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Strategy Definition or Description Vehicle and Fuel Policies Alternative fuel and highefficiency transit vehicle purchase Purchase of transit vehicles such as hybrid electric, natural gas, or electric buses to reduce energy use or use fuels with reduced carbon content. Alternative fuel and electric vehicle infrastructure Direct provision of alternative fueling infrastructure; or subsidies, incentives, or technical assistance to encourage other entities to provide such infrastructure.
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114 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Metrics and Methodological Issues Effectiveness is typically measured in terms of metric tons (tonnes) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)
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115 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS and emissions. Provision of alternative modes (transit, walking, bicycling)
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116 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Figure A.9 shows a typical scenario analysis of the impact of varying levels of GHG emissions mitigation strategies (Greene and Plotkin 2011)
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117 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS changes in the 2010 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) reference case projected impact.
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118 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Tables A.6 and A.7 provide information from the literature regarding the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and feasibility of transportation GHG emissions reduction strategies. Table A.6 shows transportation system strategies directed at the design and operation of the transportation system itself and the behavior of users of the system.
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119 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS TABLE A.6. TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM GHG REDUCTION STRATEGIES Strategy Name Key Deployment Assumptions Fuel/GHG Reduction in 2030 (%)
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120 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Strategy Name Key Deployment Assumptions Fuel/GHG Reduction in 2030 (%) Direct CostEffectiveness Data Source Feasibility Te ch n ic al In st it u ti on al P ol it ic al Non-motorized Pedestrian improvements Pedestrian improvements implemented near business districts, schools, transit stations 0.10%–0.31% $190 Cambridge Systematics 2009 H L–M M Bicycle Improvements Comprehensive bicycle infrastructure implemented in moderate to high-density urban neighborhoods 0.09–0.28% $80–$210 Cambridge Systematics 2009 M L M Freight Rail freight infrastructure Aspirational estimates of potential truck– rail diversion resulting from major program of rail infrastructure investments 0.01%–0.22% $80–$200 Cambridge Systematics, Inc., and Eastern Research Group, Inc.
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121 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Strategy Name Key Deployment Assumptions Fuel/GHG Reduction in 2030 (%) Direct CostEffectiveness Data Source Feasibility Te ch n ic al In st it u ti on al P ol it ic al Other transportation agency activitiesd Alternative fuel DOT fleet vehicles, LEED-certified DOT buildings 0.1% NA Cambridge Systematics, Inc., and Eastern Research Group, Inc.
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122 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Strategy Name Key Deployment Assumptions Fuel/GHG Reduction in 2030 (%) Direct CostEffectiveness Data Source Feasibility Te ch n ic al In st it u ti on al P ol it ic al Real-time traffic informationa 511, DOT website, personalized information 0.00% [0.02%–0.07%]
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123 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Strategy Name Key Deployment Assumptions Fuel/GHG Reduction in 2030 (%) Direct CostEffectiveness Data Source Feasibility Te ch n ic al In st it u ti on al P ol it ic al Intercity bus service expansion 3% annual expansion in intercity bus service 0.06% NA Cambridge Systematics, Inc., and Eastern Research Group, Inc.
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124 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Strategy Name Key Deployment Assumptions Fuel/GHG Reduction in 2030 (%) Direct CostEffectiveness Data Source Feasibility Te ch n ic al In st it u ti on al P ol it ic al Land Use Codes, Regulations, and Policies Compact development 60%–90% of new urban growth in compact, walkable neighborhoods (+4,000 persons/ mi or +5 gross units/)
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125 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Strategy Name Key Deployment Assumptions Fuel/GHG Reduction in 2030 (%) Direct CostEffectiveness Data Source Feasibility Te ch n ic al In st it u ti on al P ol it ic al Pay-asyou-drive insurance Require states to permit PAYD insurance (low)
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From page 128... ...
126 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Strategy Name Key Deployment Assumptions Fuel/GHG Reduction in 2030 (%) Direct CostEffectiveness Data Source Feasibility Te ch n ic al In st it u ti on al P ol it ic al Compressed work weeks Minimum: 75% of government employees; maximum: double current private participationa 0.1%–0.3% NA International Energy Agency 2005 Cambridge Systematics, Inc., and Eastern Research Group, Inc.
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127 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Strategy Name Key Deployment Assumptions Fuel/GHG Reduction in 2030 (%) Direct CostEffectiveness Data Source Feasibility Te ch n ic al In st it u ti on al P ol it ic al Other Public Education Driver education/ eco-driving Reach 10%–50% of population + in-vehicle instrumentation 0.8%–2.3% 3.7% NA Cambridge Systematics 2009 International Energy Agency 2005 L L H Information on vehicle purchasea Expansion of EPA SmartWay program (freightoriented)
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128 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS • Technological: Is the technology well-developed and proven in practice? What is the likelihood that the technology could be implemented in the near future at the deployment levels assumed in the analysis?
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129 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Strategy Name Key Market Penetration and Per Vehicle Benefit Assumptions Fuel/GHG Reduction (%) Net Included CostEffectiveness Feasibility 2030 2050 Te ch n ic al In st it u ti on al P ol it ic al Advanced Vehicle Technology: Light-Duty Advanced conventional gasoline vehiclesb, c 8%–30% efficiency benefit per vehicle; 60% market penetration in 2030, 100% in 2050 2.5%– 9.0% 4.4%– 16% ($180)
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From page 132... ...
130 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Combined Strategy Impacts and Interactive Effects Many GHG emissions reduction strategies interact to produce different outcomes for total GHG reductions. The benefits of each strategy (or group of strategies)
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131 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS that combines infrastructure improvements with local and regional pricing measures to pay for these improvements. The study concluded that a net savings would be realized for most bundles if vehicle operating cost savings were counted against the direct implementation costs.
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132 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Top-down, aspirational or scenario estimates of potential travel activity and system efficiency benefits have also been developed. These estimates make assumptions regarding what percentage vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
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133 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS projects, but they are rarely quantified in GHG cost-effectiveness analysis. Therefore, the cost-effectiveness estimates shown in Table A.4, in particular, are incomplete and may not accurately represent full social costs and benefits.
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134 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS in-vehicle feedback technology. Thus, despite the modest individual strategy impacts, the combined effects of all transportation system strategies may be significant, on the order of 5% to 20% of transportation GHG emissions.
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135 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Systematics 2009) ; a Transportation Research Board study estimated a 6% to 12% reduction with significant changes in land use policies and investments in transit (Special Report 298 2009)
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136 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS maintain travel demand models, and some state DOTs have developed statewide models. These models have varying capabilities for GHG analysis.
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137 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS (see "Indirect Effects and Induced Demand" below)
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138 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS TABLE A.8. CO2 EMISSION FACTORS BY FUEL TYPE Fuel CO2 Emission Factor (kg/gal)
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139 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS CACP 2009: Clean Air and Climate Protection This software tool, available from ICLEI–Local Governments for Sustainability, was developed in partnership with the National Association of Clean Air Agencies and EPA (ICLEI 2012a)
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140 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS vehicles; (5) replace existing park, concessionaire, and other vehicles with alternative fuel vehicles and hybrids; and (6)
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141 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS New York State DOT Draft Guidance on Transportation GHG Analysis The New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT) developed a series of draft guidance documents to assist in calculating the fuel consumption and GHG impacts of transportation projects for project alternatives analysis and for MPOs' longrange transportation plans and transportation improvement programs.
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142 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (Energy Information Administration 2009)
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143 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS The model is also intended for cost-benefit assessment and incorporates damage costs for various pollutants. As with COMMUTER, emissions factors are not speed-based.
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144 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS primary GHGs: CO2, CH4, and N2O. The summary output from the tool includes estimated quantity of GHGs in the base and alternative cases and percentage change of GHG emissions from the base to the alternative case.
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145 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS reductions caused by the adopted Pavley I regulation and the Low-Carbon Fuel Standard in the light-duty fleet (California Air Resources Board 2010c)
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146 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS This model is most appropriate in cases for which life-cycle emissions for different types of vehicle and fuel technology are of interest. It is also useful for obtaining emissions factors for fuels other than gasoline and diesel (e.g., biofuels, electricity)
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147 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Elasticities are commonly used to analyze strategies that affect the cost of travel (e.g., road pricing, transit fares, commuter incentives) and strategies that affect travel time (e.g., reduction in bus headways or running time)
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148 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS land use multiplier, which represents additional benefits from land use changes related to transit investments. FHWA Highway Economic Requirements System The Highway Economic Requirements System (HERS)
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149 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS in a corridor, induced (or disinduced) traffic occurring as a result of changes in highway congestion levels, and effects of speed and cold starts on motor vehicle emissions and fuel consumption.
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150 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS A regression analysis using a linear, logistic, or other function can be applied to a group of recent years of HPMS VMT data to generate a VMT estimate for a planning horizon year or years. Local areas must decide the appropriate number of years to include in their regression analysis, but in general 10 to 20 years is appropriate for the longer-term forecasts often used in GHG projections.
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151 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS As a hypothetical example, VMT in Massachusetts is projected to illustrate how projections of population and VMT per capita can be used to forecast future VMT. Historic data from Massachusetts from 1990 through 2008 are used to project VMT through 2030.
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152 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS y = 47.057x + 7626.7 y = 8.8439x + 8200.6 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 20 20 1990-2008 trendline 1999-2008 trendline VMT per Capita Figure A.10. Massachusetts VMT per capita.
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153 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Converting Highway and Nonhighway VMT into Emissions Overview of Vehicle Emissions GHG emissions estimates should always include CO2 and will usually include CH4 and N2O. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
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154 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS type. In contrast, CH4 and N2O are strongly determined by the vehicle's emissions control technology, and therefore emissions factors from a model that accounts for vehicle technology must be used for these gases.
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155 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS TABLE A.11. EXAMPLE VEHICLE TYPE PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTIONS FOR FUTURE YEARS Vehicle Type 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Passenger cars 51.64% 49.17% 49.85% 52.07% 54.34% 56.27% Light-duty trucks 41.51% 43.18% 42.32% 40.22% 37.96% 35.96% Heavy-duty trucks 6.84% 7.66% 7.83% 7.70% 7.70% 7.77% Source: Energy Information Administration (2010)
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From page 158... ...
156 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS economy in miles per gallon of gasoline equivalent. A gallon of gasoline equivalent is the amount of fuel that has the same energy content as a gallon of gasoline.
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157 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Protection Agency 2010b) , described in the following equation and The Climate Registry's General Reporting Protocol, can be used: emissions = ∑(EFabc × activityabc)
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158 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Step 2: Split VMT into Vehicle Model Years State registration databases, which give the number of vehicles for each model year, can be used in combination with mileage accumulation assumptions by model year to distribute VMT among all model years. For nonattainment areas, this data should be readily available from transportation conformity analyses.
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159 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Vehicle Type and Model Year N2O (g/mi)
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160 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Refrigerant Emissions Refrigerants used in air conditioning and refrigeration systems represent an additional source of GHG emissions from highway vehicles. Emissions from mobile air conditioners and refrigerated transport accounted for about 4% of GHG emissions from cars, 5% from light-duty trucks, and 0.6% from heavy trucks in 2006 (Cambridge Systematics 2009; calculations are based on AEO Table 2-15, April 2009 release)
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161 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS The nature of black carbon as a subspecies of particulate matter suggests that among transportation sources, those that emit high levels of particulates, such as heavy-duty diesel vehicles, would also emit high levels of black carbon and would be a potential target of mitigation strategies. Mitigation strategies could include those already being promoted to control particulate emissions, such as clean diesel fuels, advanced engine designs, and control technologies (e.g., particulate filters)
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From page 164... ...
162 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS • Leave transit bus VMT in the HPMS data and calculate transit bus GHG emissions as part of the process described above. If calculating transit bus emissions separately, the following equations can be used: CO2 emissions = fuel consumption × CO2 emission factor (g/gal)
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163 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS TABLE A.17. CO2 EMISSION FACTORS BY FUEL TYPE Fuel Type CO2 Emission Factor Unit Diesel 10.15 kg CO2/gal Gasoline 8.81 kg CO2/gal Liquefied petroleum gas 5.79 kg CO2/gal Liquefied natural gas 4.46 kg CO2/gal Methanol 4.1 kg CO2/gal Ethanol (E100)
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164 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Step 2: Apply N2O and CH4 Emission Factors. VMT can be multiplied by a fuel-specific emission factor to calculate N2O and CH4 emissions.
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From page 167... ...
165 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS rates available as of this writing are for 2007, but the EPA's website should be consulted for updated rates (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2012a)
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From page 168... ...
166 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Future Year Transit GHG Emissions To calculate transit emissions for future years it is necessary to estimate future year annual distance driven by mode. This can be done in three ways: • First, for buses included in the HPMS inventory, use general roadway VMT forecasts and assume that buses continue to make up the same fraction of future VMT; • Second, for other modes, or for buses not included in the HPMS highway inventory, extrapolate future service levels (total vehicle miles, as illustrated in Table A.6)
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From page 169... ...
167 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS For example, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in the northeastern and midAtlantic states aims to reduce GHG emissions from electricity-generating sources by 2.5% per year between 2014 and 2018. The Annual Energy Outlook can be used to develop projections of electric generation GHG intensity.
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From page 170... ...
168 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Improvements in GHG emission rates for all transit modes can also be estimated based on local analysts' expectations regarding technology improvement. For example, a recent study of nationwide GHG reduction measures developed its own estimates of efficiency improvements based on NTD energy consumption trends, transit mode shares, transit trip lengths, improved bus technology, and decreased power generation emissions to estimate GHG emissions per passenger mile in 2050 for each transit mode (Cambridge Systematics 2009)
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From page 171... ...
169 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Rail Transportation Urban rail Emissions from urban rail transportation (light and heavy rail, commuter rail) can be calculated using the data sources and methods described above in "GHG Emissions from Transit Vehicles." Intercity Passenger Rail Emissions can be estimated for a state-level inventory based on train counts from Amtrak schedules and estimates of route mileage within the state or metropolitan area based on data from Amtrak or user-generated estimates.
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From page 172... ...
170 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Activity data for ferries can be obtained from NTD for individual ferry transit operators. However, fuel consumption (gallons per vessel mile)
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From page 173... ...
171 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Washington State has developed Greenroads, a sustainability performance metric and rating system for roadway design and construction best management practices that uses information from pavement life-cycle analysis studies (Greenroads 2012)
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From page 174... ...
172 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS adjustments to the state-level equipment population files and associated county allocation files to reflect the fraction of county populations in use for a given project. In addition, emissions for time periods less than 1 year can be developed, and hours of use can be changed to reflect the actual amount of time equipment is operating.
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From page 175... ...
173 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS VEHICLE AND FUEL LIFE-CYCLE EMISSIONS Overview The term life cycle is often used to refer to all emissions associated with the construction, maintenance, and operation of the transportation system and the vehicles that use that system. In addition to the emissions associated with infrastructure construction, maintenance, and operations as described in the previous section, these include the full range of emissions associated with vehicles and the fuels they consume.
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From page 176... ...
174 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS TABLE A.26. DIRECT AND LIFE-CYCLE EMISSION FACTORS BY TRANSPORTATION FUEL, AVERAGE FOR PASSENGER VEHICLES Motor Vehicle Fuel Direct Emissions, kg CO2e/gal (from The Climate Registry)
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From page 177... ...
175 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS midpoint estimates of GHG emissions reductions of 22% for corn ethanol (E100) versus gasoline, and 57% for soy biodiesel (B100)
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From page 178... ...
176 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Vehicle-Cycle Emissions GREET and the Life-Cycle Emissions Model (LEM) provide estimates of GHG emissions from vehicle-cycle processes for on-road vehicles; additional estimates are provided by Chester (2008)
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From page 179... ...
177 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS GHG emissions for electricity generation can be obtained from EPA's eGRID database. These factors will vary by region of the country, depending on the regional electricity generation mix.
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From page 180... ...
178 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS TABLE A.29. ON-ROAD VEHICLE GHG EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS IN NORTH JERSEY Total Emissions (MMT CO2e)
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From page 181... ...
179 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS The general equation for estimating energy consumed during construction was E = C × EF × DC where E = energy consumed (Btu) , C = cost of a particular construction activity (2007$)
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From page 182... ...
180 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS TABLE A.31. ALTERNATIVES SUMMARY OF CONSTRUCTION-RELATED ENERGY USE AND CO2E EMISSIONS, COLUMBIA RIVER PROJECT Alternative Energy Consumed (mBtu)
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From page 183... ...
181 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Induced demand effects are significant in GHG analysis because they can partially offset the GHG emissions reduction benefits of capacity or operational improvements that reduce congestion. However, as discussed below, induced demand effects are difficult to measure and forecast accurately, and there is currently no consensus as to how the magnitude of these impacts compares with the benefits of capacity expansion and congestion relief over the long run.
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From page 184... ...
182 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Expansion of a highly congested freeway in Los Angeles is likely to result in a significant amount of induced demand, while expansion of a four-lane freeway in rural North Dakota is likely to have little, if any, effect on traffic volumes. Induced demand is likely to be greater over the medium to long term, but measuring induced demand becomes more difficult over a longer time frame.
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From page 185... ...
183 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Appropriate Situations in Which to Conduct Additional Analysis of Induced Demand In some cases, the analytic tools used to estimate VMT and GHG emissions may already account, at least partially, for induced demand. As noted above, this is most likely to be the case when a regional travel demand model with appropriate feedback loops is being used.
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From page 186... ...
184 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS volume of 8,000 vehicles. This facility operates at an average of 30 mph under peak conditions.
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From page 187... ...
185 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS SMITE-ML, a variation of SMITE, was developed specifically to evaluate managed lanes (Federal Highway Administration 2012e )
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From page 188... ...
186 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS et al.
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From page 189... ...
187 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS MOVES can be used as either an inventory model or an emissions rate (factor) model.
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From page 190... ...
188 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS would have been necessary. Annual average daily travel can be scaled to the annual level by multiplying by 365.
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From page 191... ...
189 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Figure A.14. MOVES geographic bounds screen.
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From page 192... ...
190 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Figure A.16. MOVES fuel and source types selection screen.
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From page 193... ...
191 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS After the analyst has made the appropriate selections on the screens illustrated in the figures above, the MOVES County Data Manager is used to enter local data for the area. Local data inputs are required for various parameters for MOVES to run successfully.
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From page 194... ...
192 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS inputs are needed with this option. The inputs related to vehicle activity are discussed below, and other inputs that apply to all scales of analysis are discussed at the end of this document.
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From page 195... ...
193 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS The speed distribution data in MOVES represent the fraction of time that a specific vehicle (source) type spends within a specific speed range.
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From page 196... ...
194 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Correspondence Between Travel Demand Model Facility Classifications and MOVES Roadway Type Run the travel demand model for the no-build or E+C scenario; output link-level volumes and speeds by MOVES road type. The facility types within the travel demand model will likely not match up with the MOVES road types.
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From page 197... ...
195 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS improvement would be considered a transportation project. Such projects lead to changes in GHG emissions as a result of changes in speed, flow of traffic, or traffic volumes.
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From page 198... ...
196 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS emissions inventory. However, if the project is expected to attract a nonrepresentative vehicle age distribution (e.g., a football stadium might attract a newer fleet than average)
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From page 199... ...
197 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS hot-spot guidance: "For both free-flow highway and intersection links, users may directly enter output from traffic simulation models in the form of second-by-second individual vehicle trajectories" (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2010f)
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From page 200... ...
198 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Yet another option is to select percentiles from the speed distribution for analysis using MOVES. For practitioners without microsimulation modeling capability, an FHWA contract is underway in 2010 that will produce example vehicle-specific power profiles for MOVES under various congestion conditions.
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From page 201... ...
199 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Link Source Type The Link Source Type Importer describes the distribution of VMT by MOVES source (vehicle) type.
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From page 202... ...
200 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Local Area Inputs for MOVES Not Related to Vehicle Travel This section describes the local area inputs to MOVES that are needed for all analysis types. Vehicle Age Distributions It is important that the vehicle age distribution data be representative of the local area for a GHG emissions inventory (as it is for other emissions inventories)
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From page 203... ...
201 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS (LDV) GHG emissions standards and CAFE standards for model year 2012 through 2016 vehicles.
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From page 204... ...
202 PRACTITIONERS GUIDE TO INCORPORATING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTO THE COLLABORATIVE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS It may be possible to adjust output CO2 emissions in a similar manner, without the need for making an additional MOVES model run. However, to do this, the output emissions would need to be at the model year level of detail.
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Key Terms
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