Identification and Evaluation of Freight Demand Factors (2012) / Chapter Skim
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From page 15... ...
12 2. Measuring and Estimating Transportation Demand In Task 1, the research team reviewed existing freight demand models and related literature to identify and evaluate a wide variety of freight demand measurements and the potential independent factors that could be used to predict these demands.
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13 means that their activity is measured weekly, monthly and annually by both the Association of American Railroads (AAR) and Surface Transportation Board (STB)
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14 using double-stack intermodal cars sized for international container lengths and low-tare aluminum gondolas that carry 20 more tons of coal than steel gondolas. Railroads offer shippers discounts when they ship more railcars at a time because 90-car trains are not much more expensive to operate than 87-car trains.
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15 Domestic Waterway Tons In general, different kinds of freight moves on barges over domestic waterways than by railroad (the notable exception, in some cases, is grain)
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16 Waterways attract freight that is extremely heavy and usually has low value relative to its weight. The origin-to-destination transportation can involve, but does not require, a long length-of-haul to be appropriate to the water mode.
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17 percentage of them become the labor force that provides the means of production, cultivation and extraction of other freight that must be transported. Economic Activity is a Direct Factor GDP, particularly the goods production component, is a fundamental measure of the national output of freight that gets that produced, consumed and at some level, transported.
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18 Environmental Policy is an Indirect Factor Federal and state environmental policies may place particular restrictions on por ts and waterways. Port expansion is limited by the Clean Water Act, requirements for "no net loss" of wetlands, or limitations and permitting processes for channel deepening or harbor dredging.
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19 dredged channels, or new feet of runway could all be considered as independent variables. However, these measurements might actually be a result of increased freight demand, rather than a cause, so they were not considered as "influences." User charges, directed tax revenues, and in many cases, tolls are used to fund U.S.
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20 Intermodal's effect on overall truck volumes is tiny, with the exception of long-haul, dry-van and reefer markets where it is a b it more significant. R ITA data indicates trucking carries approximately 1.3 trillion ton-miles of freight, so intermodal rail accounts for a small, but still countable 2.3% of surface trailer traffic, mostly due to the skewing of intermodal competitiveness towards longer haul moves.
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21 of the economy while Exports and Imports summarize trading volumes, which generate significant demands in long-distance transportation. Candidates for Factors that Affect Transportation Demand Based on the guidance provided by the Transportation Research Board and discussed above, as well as on past and expanded review of literature and existing freight models, the research team identified potential candidates to be used as the independent factors affecting freight transportation demand.
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22 The initial goal was to consider data only if it w as publicly available and collectable on a monthly, quarterly and annual basis. However since all but one of the freight demand measures were publicly available only on an annual frequency, the independent factors were summarized on an annual basis as well.
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23 growth in GDP – a broad measure of economic activity – translates into consumer (i.e., household) expenditures that are ultimately spent on pur chasing goods and services, either domestically produced or imported, can be captured by real personal consumption.
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24 Housing Housing starts are counted and released monthly by the Census Bureau and provide insight on construction trends in the U.S. They tend to follow closely-monitored, large macro-economic developments in the U.S.
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25 Production The Federal Reserve Board measures production activities in the United States. These include goods produced domestically for consumption or exported, as well as imports of semi-finished goods that may be further processed in the U.S.
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26 Trade and Foreign Exchange In a world where supply chains have become increasingly globalized, trade as measured in both volume and value plays an extremely important role in determining freight demand. Imports to the U.S.
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27 Inventory/Sales Ratios Inventory/sales ratios are a counter-cyclical measurement in that during an initial period of business slowdown, sales decline and inventory piles up. A s business improves, sales increase while inventory initially is depleted (before orders can catch up)
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28 Retail Sales Retail sales are an important potential factor affecting transportation demand that was identified as part of the literature review.19 320,000 330,000 340,000 350,000 360,000 370,000 380,000 390,000 2000.1 2000.4 2001.3 2002.2 2003.1 2003.4 2004.3 2005.2 2006.1 2006.4 2007.3 2008.2 2009.1 M ill io ns o f 2 00 9 $ (S ea so na lly A dj us te d) Retail Sales in Real $ Increased demand for goods by households due to economic growth leads to increased retail activity.
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29 Fuel Prices Even though trucks and trains use diesel fuel, gasoline prices are a good economic indicator that may affect the demand for truck transportation. First, the price of gasoline is highly correlated with that of diesel.
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30 TABLE 1 - Chosen Independent Factors Variables Sources Notes Real GDP 2005 Chained $ Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP in 2005 dollars, chain price deflated Real GDP 2005 Chained $/ Capita Bureau of Economic Analysis & Census Bureau Mid-year Population Estimates Real Personal Consumption 2005 Chained $ Bureau of Economic Analysis Real Income / Capita, Chained 2005 $ Bureau of Economic Analysis & Census Bureau Mid-year Population Estimates Total Housing Starts Census Bureau Avg of Monthly Data Industrial Production Index Federal Reserve Board Avg of Monthly Data Industrial Manufacturing Index Federal Reserve Board Avg of Monthly Data Purchasing Managers Index Institute of Supply Management Avg of Monthly Data Trade Weighted Foreign Exchange Index (Broad Trading Partners) Federal Reserve Board Avg of Daily Data Trade Weighted Foreign Exchange Index (Major Trading Partners)
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