Toolkit for Estimating Demand for Rural Intercity Bus Services (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 38-47
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From page 38... ...
38 The objective of this project was the development of sketchplanning tools to allow planners and operators to estimate the potential demand for rural intercity bus service; therefore, the project effort shifted from the collection and analysis of data to this key element. Initial considerations in the development of these sketch-planning tools included the following observations, prior to the actual effort at calibrating models.
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From page 39... ...
cases in each subgrouping to allow for statistical modeling for each of them. For that reason alone, the resulting toolkit may well have to include a number of techniques to assist the service planner in estimating potential demand.
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From page 40... ...
– A connecting intercity carrier will want to have fixed schedules, not demand-responsive or only on-call services, because schedule information is needed to quote service to an inbound passenger. – An intercity carrier providing rural intercity service will likely not be able to deviate to different hospitals in the destination city, wait for passengers, or make multiple stops at transit centers, etc.; therefore, if the primary market has a human service/medical component, local providers may need to be considered.
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From page 41... ...
variations in the service characteristics plus the other unobserved variances would account for the rest. The study team began the analysis by calculating basic trip rates for all the services in the database using the corridor populations.
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From page 42... ...
42 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 Corridor Population R id er s Riders Predicted riders Figure 5-1. Line fit plot for intercity bus corridor population.
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From page 43... ...
Trip Rate Approach: Rates from the National Household Travel Survey Given the issues with the regression efforts, one other approach was tried.
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From page 44... ...
44 Long Distance per Capita Trips by Census Division Trips of 50 miles or more in one-way distance Per Capita Trips by Urban/Rural Households & Household Family Income* Urban/Rural Household HHFAM INC*
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From page 45... ...
Where: Ridership = annual one-way passenger boardings Average origin population = sum of the populations of origin points (all points on the route except that with the largest population) Number of stops = count of points listed in public timetables as stops Airport service or connection = route serves an airport with commercial service either directly or with one transfer at a common location Intercity provider = service operated by a carrier meeting the definition of an intercity bus carrier (see Definition of Intercity Bus Service in Chapter 6.)
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From page 46... ...
In this case, the regression approach was used to develop an adjustment factor that would then be applied to the estimated demand from the trip rate approach. The idea was that this approach would make maximum use of the available information.
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From page 47... ...
regression equation identified previously. While the trip rate prediction provided the largest share of predictions within 5 percent of the actual ridership, the regression equation had the largest share (nearly 60 percent)
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