Toolkit for Estimating Demand for Rural Intercity Bus Services (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 48-58
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From page 48... ...
48 Using the models described in the previous chapter, a draft toolkit was developed. This chapter will provide a discussion of what has been included and why -- the actual toolkit is entirely included on the accompanying CD-ROM that uses Microsoft® Word and Excel files to enable the user to define potential routes, estimate ridership, and make adjustments to those estimates.
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classify routes, or there were issues with the available data on services or ridership. More information on the database and the development of the toolkit is available in the previous chapters of this report.
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services. It could include transit services operated by local or regional public transit agencies.
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population of the stops served by the route (excluding the largest population stop, which is assumed to be the destination) , the length of the route, whether the route serves an airport, and whether the route would be operated by a carrier that is part of the national intercity bus network.
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The cities listed are those that are recognized by the 2000 Census. If the user does not find a city or town in the dropdown list, it is either: • Not recognized in the 2000 Census or • Part of an urban cluster or urbanized area that has a different name.
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From page 53... ...
• Proposed Service: City A to F, via B, C, D, and E -- The proposed intercity bus service terminates in City F at the intermodal terminal or major transfer point that is the hub of the local transit system. A local transit route originates at the intermodal terminal and terminates at the City F Regional Airport.
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From page 54... ...
• Dividing the number of daily departures on the proposed service by the total to get the percentage of the total intercity bus departures that would be on the proposed service, and then • Multiplying the trip rate model's predicted ridership for that stop by the percentage of the total departures represented by the proposed service, and inserting that number into the appropriate blank on the "Adjustments" page. If there is existing service on the proposed route that would directly compete, the best adjustment would be to subtract the ridership on that service from the estimated demand.
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From page 55... ...
1. To make sure that this toolkit is appropriate, some potential service parameters are checked: • Proposed route length: 210 miles, one-way • Proposed daily frequency: one round-trip, 365 days per year • Proposed fare level: assume standard NBTA fare levels, approximately $0.13 per mile • Proposed operator: an intercity bus carrier member of the NBTA • Proposed connectivity with the national intercity bus network: service into the Baltimore Greyhound station, the Frederick MARC/Greyhound station, the Hagerstown Greyhound station, and the Morgantown Mountain Transit transfer point All of these elements are comparable to the routes used to develop the toolkit, as indicated by the information on the links shown on the CD.
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From page 56... ...
service, the planner goes to the Greyhound link and finds that Hagerstown has three existing intercity bus schedules per day each way, and the proposed route would add a fourth. So the proposed route might capture 25% of the estimated Hagerstown demand.
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two round-trips per day, so a third intercity connection might potentially receive a third of the trips generated by the overall population. Applying the same student body adjustment as for Frostburg State, the estimated West Virginia University ridership would be 3,475 (2 percent times eight trips per year)
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From page 58... ...
generate ridership that has nothing to do with the population along the route. The ridership on these "bridge" routes will be a function of the connections at either end and could only be estimated with a general national intercity bus network model or by obtaining data from the operators at either end regarding the likely feed traffic coming from their connecting services.
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