Assessing and Mitigating Future Impacts to the Federal Highway Trust Fund Such as Alternative Fuel Consumption (2008) / Chapter Skim
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Assessing and Mitigating Future Impacts to the Federal Highway Trust Fund Such as Alternative Fuel Consumption NCHRP Project 19-05 CHAPTER 3 INTERPRETATION, APPRAISAL, AND APPLICATIONS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS CONSIDERED The previous chapter describes the quantitative analysis of five specific issues that could affect future fuel use and subsequent revenues: • The substitution of ethanol for gasoline; • Improved fuel economy; • The possibility of a significant shift to other alternative fuels such as hydrogen or electricity; • The potential for shifts to diesel an/or clean diesel fuel; • A "supply shock" in the event of a war in the Middle East. The analysis showed that the probability of some of these scenarios occurring relative to the base-case assumptions was quite high, and there were several possible routes (both regulatory and voluntary actions)
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Assessing and Mitigating Future Impacts to the Federal Highway Trust Fund Such as Alternative Fuel Consumption NCHRP Project 19-05 "supply shock" scenario is not explicitly modeled, but can be considered as making some of the other scenarios more likely. Table 6 Scenarios Screened Issue Scenarios for 2015 Probability Fuel Economy (Regulation)
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Assessing and Mitigating Future Impacts to the Federal Highway Trust Fund Such as Alternative Fuel Consumption NCHRP Project 19-05 The MFCM utilizes three major vehicle classes (i.e., cars, LDTs, and HDTs)
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Assessing and Mitigating Future Impacts to the Federal Highway Trust Fund Such as Alternative Fuel Consumption NCHRP Project 19-05 INCREASED USE OF ETHANOL AND GASOHOL EEA's analysis revealed three possible routes to increased use of ethanol, either as neat fuel or as a blend with gasoline (called gasohol)
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Assessing and Mitigating Future Impacts to the Federal Highway Trust Fund Such as Alternative Fuel Consumption NCHRP Project 19-05 The second scenario is the RFS that requires five billion gallons of renewable fuel to be sold in 2012. Ethanol is the only realistic option to meet these volumes.
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Assessing and Mitigating Future Impacts to the Federal Highway Trust Fund Such as Alternative Fuel Consumption NCHRP Project 19-05 The most likely change is similar to the current proposal by DOT, which is a modest 10 percent boost in LDT fuel economy over baseline values to 2020. The baseline estimate is 22.8 mpg in 2010 and 24.2 mpg in 2020.
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Assessing and Mitigating Future Impacts to the Federal Highway Trust Fund Such as Alternative Fuel Consumption NCHRP Project 19-05 Increasing LDT fuel economy by 10 percent reduces fuel consumption by 0.11 MMBbl/ day or about 1.7 billion gallons/year in 2010 and almost 6.9 billion gallons/year in 2020. At the other extreme, the highest proposed fuel economy standard reduces consumption by 6.1 billion gallons/year in 2010 and by 31.7 billion gallons/year in 2020.
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Assessing and Mitigating Future Impacts to the Federal Highway Trust Fund Such as Alternative Fuel Consumption NCHRP Project 19-05 No reliable methodology exists to estimate a high diesel penetration scenario, and longterm "forecasts" are simply subjective estimates based on consumer stated-preference surveys. Optimistic opinions suggest that by 2020, the U.S.
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Assessing and Mitigating Future Impacts to the Federal Highway Trust Fund Such as Alternative Fuel Consumption NCHRP Project 19-05 SUMMARY OF RESULTS Under the baseline scenario of "business-as-usual" gasoline consumption will grow by slightly more than 28 percent between 2000 and 2020, while diesel consumption will increase by almost 62 percent. In general, the effects of any alternative scenarios that have a high probability of occurrence (more than 50 percent)
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