Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation (2007) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 51-61
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From page 51... ...
Long-term trends in ADA paratransit demand cannot be predicted in the same way that the demand estimation tool predicts short-term demand. However, likely trends and influences can be discerned by consideration of the available literature.
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Long-Term Trends that May Affect ADA Paratransit Demand 35 population growth is currently projected to create a larger number of persons with disabilities. This is likely to be one of the largest influences on the overall level of demand for specialized paratransit services and will have the effect of increasing the demand for services.
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From page 53... ...
the elderly of today,14 some analysts project that many elderly will outlive their ability to drive by 7 to 10 years,15 thus increasing the demand for additional transportation services. • General trends toward higher education, higher incomes, and better health status could reinforce the trend toward declining rates of disabilities among the older population, although population increases among seniors will still lead to higher numbers of seniors with disabilities despite the decline in disability rates among seniors.16 Other Trends of Note There are a number of other trends that must be taken into account.
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Long-Term Trends that May Affect ADA Paratransit Demand 37 data and should not be taken to imply that there is no effect. Local baselines, causative factors, and mitigating factors need to be addressed in making detailed local estimates.
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• Auto ownership is expected to become even more widespread in the next several decades. By about 2025, the United States will have 260 million vehicles, up from 221 million in 2000.21 Autos owned per household will increase, and the percentage of households without an auto will decrease.
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Long-Term Trends that May Affect ADA Paratransit Demand 39 • It may be equally likely that current services will not change and that the industry's focus will remain on mass transit services provided on fixed routes and schedules. Focusing on the traditional fixed-route paradigm could result in a relatively constant number of riders but a smaller and smaller share of total trips in the community.
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From page 57... ...
Major Trends Many of the current societal trends could lead to some modest increases in demand for demand-responsive services, although much of this demand could also be satisfied by private auto trips. As previously noted, if such demand is met by general public paratransit providers, ADA paratransit demands could decrease.
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Long-Term Trends that May Affect ADA Paratransit Demand 41 • Economic and service specialization will most likely increase travel demands because of the discrete locations demanded by such specialization. Many of these discrete locations will be outside of traditional city centers, so this trend is likely to increase the need for flexibly routed and scheduled services such as the private auto, carpools, and demand-responsive transit services.
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• Travel technology improvements that tend to automate operational decisions requiring strength, cognition, or responsiveness (such as the skills commonly required to drive) could increase travel options for persons with disabilities and thus increase overall travel demands.
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Long-Term Trends that May Affect ADA Paratransit Demand 43 Overall Impressions An increased demand for specialized demand-responsive services is likely in the next several decades, but the proportion of that demand that is met by ADA complementary paratransit services depends on policy decisions that are extremely difficult to forecast. With no significant policy changes, ADA paratransit demands are likely to exhibit relatively stable rates of growth.
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From page 61... ...
Key Areas for Further Research A number of subjects appear as important but hard-to-predict components of future ADA paratransit demands. These subjects would be good candidates for further research.
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