Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation (2007) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 62-70
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From page 62... ...
The aggregate demand analyses done as part of this project provide an easy-to-use method to forecast ADA paratransit demand for an urban region. In this section, we discuss options for further data collection and analysis to move toward less aggregate models.
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A Fully Disaggregate Approach The main concept behind disaggregate travel demand modeling is to model choices at the behavioral level that they actually occur. In this case, it would be the decision of individual travelers to make a particular trip by paratransit.
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Options for Disaggregate Analysis 47 What Would Disaggregate Models Look Like? The key decisions that lead to usage of paratransit include the following: 1.
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a person makes and their propensity to make those trips by paratransit. This is analogous to the case for models of automobile usage -- we typically do not include having a driving license as an explanatory variable because it is endogenous.
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Options for Disaggregate Analysis 49 • Regional effects (climate and lifestyles may vary somewhat across regions) • Accessibility effects: The linkage to the trip distribution and mode choice models (described below)
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Modeling Framework -- Regional Travel Demand Modeling Before discussing model estimation, it is useful to have a good idea of the framework in which the models will be applied, as that will to a large extent determine the availability of background spatial and demographic data. First, note that three of the four models discussed above -- trip generation/frequency, distribution/destination choice, and mode choice -- are also three of the four typical steps included in regional travel demand models.
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Options for Disaggregate Analysis 51 take advantage of detailed demographic segmentation of the population, as well as measures of accessibility40 by all modes in all of the models, including destination choice and trip frequency. These two features are found in some of the more advanced regional demand models in the United States.
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Another possibility is reported by the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority: "VTA is involved in the MTC Lifeline Community Based Transportation Planning effort which has started and includes large surveying efforts. This will go on for several years and Outreach, Inc.
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Options for Disaggregate Analysis 53 • Various growth scenarios related to future changes in fuel prices, household size, income, auto ownership, age distribution, and residential distribution patterns. • Scenarios related to changes in the service levels and/or coverage of the fixed-route transit system, as well as alternative transportation provided by health services.
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