Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation (2007) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 95-121
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1. Factors Influencing the Demand for ADA Paratransit 2.
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) 79 Results from these models, including several developed by members of the research team, have been summarized in Figure 2.
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80 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation Noland et al.
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) 81 Factor Short run/long run Degree of relative influence Comments specific to this factor Income Evidence available pertains to long run.
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82 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation Evidence from FTA Compliance Reviews The ADA paratransit compliance reviews conducted for the FTA Office of Civil Rights often address factors that contribute to changes in paratransit riders, or that transit systems have used in an attempt to estimate future changes. Figure 4 provides a brief summary of factors noted in 30 of these reviews as having had an influence on demand at the system under review.
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) 83 survey was not limited to ADA paratransit eligible people; instead it used the Census definitions of disability, which are much broader.
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84 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation Results from the Survey of Paratransit Practitioners, Advocates, and Riders Paratransit professionals, researchers, advocates, and riders were surveyed to obtain their views about the importance of various factors that affect demand for ADA paratransit. A list of people to invite to complete the survey or to be interviewed was compiled from membership lists of the APTA Access Committee, the TRB Committee on Paratransit, and the TRB Committee on Accessible Transportation and Committee and from lists of people who had attended ADA paratransit training provided by team members.
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) 85 – Accessibility of sidewalks, buildings, and other public facilities • Some factors notable for their relatively low scores include: – Paratransit fare – How far in advance reservations are taken – Length of the on-time pick-up window – Accessible taxicabs in the community Note that denial rate was included as a factor for the sake of completeness, even though denial rate is not an issue in systems that are in full compliance.
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86 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation believed to be in full compliance, and open-ended comments make it clear that many of the participants still have significant denial rates. In the open-ended portions of the survey, many participants provided very thoughtful comments: • A frequent comment was that many factors have less impact on demand than they would if ADA paratransit riders had any other options.
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) 87 Development of Recommendations for Tool Development The team has examined potential demand estimation tools based on guidance from the project Panel, priorities expressed by practitioners and advocates in the survey, and feasibility for development within the scope of this project.
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88 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation These criteria can be met by basing tools on the demand observed at exemplary systems, while taking care to distinguish between demand at these systems for ADA paratransit and demand for any non-ADA services offered by these same systems. The problem statement noted that, under the ADA paratransit regulations, transit operators are free to tailor their ADA complementary paratransit operations in response to the communities they serve.
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) 89 Subsequent guidance from panel included a request to examine the potential for demand estimation tools that can lead toward eventually incorporating ADA paratransit into regional travel demand models and the regional transportation planning process, based on state-of-thepractice and emerging transportation models.
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90 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation • "Historical data (past patterns) " was mentioned by many participants, indicating a concern that the tools should take into account local conditions as reflected in this established history.
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005)
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92 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation portation, including paratransit. The most ambitious of these was the National Survey of Transportation Handicapped People, conducted by Grey Advertising under contract to the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (Grey Advertising, 1978)
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) 93 mented with most of the policy options of interest (fares, door-to-door and curb-to-curb service, advance reservation policies, etc.)
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94 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation 0.97, meaning that, in a statistical sense, it explains 97% of the observed variation of trip requests over the 42-month analysis period. All of the coefficients are statistically significant with 99% or better confidence.
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) 95 preference survey can show the value that disabled consumers place on various components of travel by paratransit and other modes and can show how these values differ depending on specific types of disabilities.
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96 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation Figure 10. Structure and logic diagram of a system-level demand model.
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) 97 demand as of fiscal year 2000-01 in most cases.
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98 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation form of rides from a family member) illustrating how this factor, too, influences multiple stages of the process.
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) 99 sophistication.
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100 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation In considering the possibility of applying disaggregate methods, it becomes even clearer than before that, in a fundamental sense, travel choices by people with disabilities are driven by the same factors that drive travel choice by non-disabled people. For example, the literature review at the beginning of this report identified several key principles of travel demand theory, including: • Travel time and discomfort are disutilities that consumers seek to minimize in choosing how, whether, and when to travel.
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Figure 12. Influence diagram for individual paratransit travel.
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102 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation disaggregate model would probably be much simpler than suggested by the diagram, representing the impact on paratransit demand of personal, household, and mode characteristics in one or two steps. Where the aggregate model uses regression analysis, with disaggregate data, there are more choices, including discrete choice models such as multinomial logit that can accommodate yes/no type choices or choices involving more than two alternatives, e.g., the mode used for a given trip.
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Excerpts from the First Interim Report (May 2005) 103 range of explanatory variables available in disaggregate data is a good feature, but it can require more time and judgment on the part of the analyst to decide on the best model specification.
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104 Improving ADA Complementary Paratransit Demand Estimation HLB Decision Economics, Demand Forecasting Model for New York City and Five Borough ADA Paratransit, Metropolitan Transit Authority of New York, Washington DC, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002. HLB Decision Economics, Demand Forecasting Model for OC Transpo Paratransit, Ottawa-Carleton Transit Authority, 2003.
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