Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting (2007) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 18-25
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From page 18... ...
18 OVERVIEW OF AVAILABLE METHODS Four general approaches to forecasting airport activity are discussed here. From a statistical point of view these methods range from very simple to very sophisticated; however, it is important to keep in mind that the use of sophisticated statistical methods does not always result in better forecasts.
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From page 19... ...
19 MARKET SHARE FORECASTING Market share analysis involves measuring current activity at an airport as a share of some other aggregate measure (typically at the regional, state, or national level) , and then assuming that the share will remain constant (or perhaps change in some prespecified way)
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From page 20... ...
• Mode choice -- Once a decision has been made about where to travel, a shares analysis is used to estimate the percentage of trips going by each available travel mode (e.g., air, automobile, or train)
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From page 21... ...
21 built) or to examine alternative environments (e.g., how would counts change if the local economy were to grow at a faster rate than expected)
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From page 22... ...
snapshots of how a given amount of traffic flows across a network or through an airport, rather than a time series of monthly or annual projections of total traffic. Unlike econometric or time series methods, simulation models do not follow any standard framework that can be used as a guide; each model is essentially built from the ground up using its own rules and methods for distributing and forecasting activity.
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From page 23... ...
23 many different criteria may be important in the selection process including accuracy, timeliness in providing forecasts, costs, ease of interpretation, flexibility, ease in using available data, ease of use, reliability of confidence intervals, and ability to compare alternative policies or examine alternative environments. Once a decision about the general type of forecasting method is made, statistical criteria may be useful in selecting the particular model.
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From page 24... ...
mended enplanement forecasts for long-term planning at the airport. The enplanement forecasts were then also used as the basis for projecting air carrier operations and fleet mix by supplementing them with historical and expected trends in load factors, types of aircraft, and average seats per departure.
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From page 25... ...
25 costs associated with general aviation flying and more restrictive flying rules imposed after 9-11. The 2005 forecast for general aviation operations used the same growth rate developed in the 2001 plan, but applied it to a reduced base of operations for 2005.
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