Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting (2007) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 26-28
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26 ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTS An often-neglected aspect of forecasting is the uncertainty associated with the forecasts themselves. Most often, forecasts are presented only as point estimates; for example, total annual enplanements are projected to be 500,000 in 2015.
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From page 27... ...
27 Aside from being used to assess the accuracy of a given forecast, the metrics mentioned previously can also be used to compare one forecast with another. However, there are some pitfalls associated with doing so.
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From page 28... ...
better data sources, inputs, and methods that are best suited to the particular situation; perhaps one will uncover data or statistical error that would cast significant doubt on the reliability of the predictions. By doing so, it may be possible to determine that indeed one forecast should be preferred to another based on data reliability or methodological grounds.
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