Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting (2007) / Chapter Skim
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3 BACKGROUND The purpose of this synthesis study is to provide an overview of current practices and methods in airport aviation activity forecasting in the United States. The study reviews academic and professional literature on forecasting as well as airport master plans, state airport system plans, and other sources of information showing how aviation decision makers, airport managers, sponsors, and their consultants actually produce forecasts of aviation activity.
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With these provisos in mind, the forecasting methods considered here can be grouped into four categories: • Market share forecasting -- local activity calculated as a share of some larger aggregate forecast. • Econometric model forecasting -- aviation activity tied to other economic measures.
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5 • Review of previous airport forecasts, including the FAA's own Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for the airport (the TAF is discussed further in chapter two)
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larger aircraft. Today, the categorization of commuter operations as referring to scheduled service with aircraft of 60 or fewer seats is rather arbitrary and does not correspond with the observed patterns of flying.
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