Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting (2007) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 7-17
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From page 7... ...
7 USES OF FORECASTS Airport aviation activity forecasts may be used for many different purposes. Typically, the forecasts are not final objectives in and of themselves.
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These distinctions between short-term/long-term and constrained/unconstrained demand can lead to stark differences in the associated activity forecasts that are produced. However, such differences do not necessarily imply that one is correct and another is incorrect (or that one is more correct than another)
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From page 9... ...
9 Appropriately defined peak periods are an important aspect of facility planning and, depending on the situation, the appropriate measure of peak activity may refer to seasonal, monthly, daily, and/or time-of-day demands. For example, seasonal peaks may be important at vacation destinations; airports that have substantial international traffic may have substantial variations in daily demand, whereas airports serving as connecting hubs for large carriers will likely be subject to large hourly peaks.
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In principle, ETMS data can be assembled to track the date and time of individual flights to and from a given airport. This can be particularly useful in identifying peak operations by time of day or day of week.
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11 tion, certain commuter airlines do not submit ticket data for the sample; for those commuter carriers who have a ticketing relationship with one or more of the major carriers, however, this is often not a major concern because most of the commuter carrier's passengers will be connecting to one of the major's mainline flights at a hub airport, and so their ticket (only a portion of which is with the commuter carrier) will be captured in the DB1B data set.
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From page 12... ...
Although neither of these sources contain any airportspecific data elements, the aggregate measures can be useful to airport planners who are employing market share forecasting methods where local activity is calculated as a share of some larger aggregate forecast. DATA COLLECTION AND PREPARATION Regardless of which forecasting method is used, there are a number of standard principles that planners should follow in preparing their data for analysis.
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13 DATA ISSUES AT NONTOWERED AIRPORTS Estimating flight activity at nontowered airports (or at towers with limited operating hours) can be difficult.
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operations (takeoffs and landings)
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15 large decline in operations at Lambert–St. Louis International Airport following American Airline's takeover of TWA)
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From page 16... ...
Regulatory Factors Aircraft operations at some airports are affected by regulatory constraints, including environmental rules regarding noise and emissions, time-of-day restrictions, and, in a few cases, direct quotas on the number of operations allowed. Under Federal Aviation Regulation Part 150, FAA has established specific metrics regarding noise exposure at airports.
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From page 17... ...
17 in activity that would otherwise not occur, subsequently resulting in an increase in congestion levels. The effects of induced demand on airport activity and congestion levels are an important part of forecasting that should be accounted for in appropriate situations.
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